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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                               August 27, 2025                             *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Two Cuts on Thin Ice

The rate-cut drumbeat is loud, but the market’s base case is still just two 25 bps cuts by year-end. That leaves very little cushion: a couple of firmer inflation prints and even that modest path can get repriced lower—especially with long yields quick to jump on upside surprises.

Equities keep hovering near highs on the “soft landing + September cut” story, but leadership remains narrow and valuations full. If prices re-warm while growth cools, easier policy stops being a tailwind and starts looking like triage.

Opinion, not advice: this is a priced-for-perfection setup. Powell may hint, but data will decide; a hot streak on inflation could turn “two cuts” into one—or none.


 

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