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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* January 28,
2026 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web
address: http://www.fiendbear.com *
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Fiend Commentary
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When
the Dollar Slips, Gold Roars, and Wall Street Shrugs
If you’re
trying to make sense of this week’s tape, here’s the cleanest way to frame it: confidence
is leaking out of the currency and out of the consumer — and it’s pouring into
hard assets — while equities keep acting like none of it matters.
Gold just
pushed to a fresh record above $5,200 and silver is back in full sprint
(north of $110 again). That kind of move isn’t a “normal inflation
hedge.” It’s the market’s way of saying: something is off in the plumbing of
trust — trust in future purchasing power, trust in policy discipline, trust
that “we’ve got inflation handled.” When gold is screaming and the volatility
index is yawning, that’s not calm. That’s complacency wearing a seatbelt.
Consumers
are sending a very different message than stocks
The
Conference Board’s consumer confidence just took a hard dive — down to the lowest
level since 2014, with commentary that it’s even weaker than the
pandemic-era lows. This matters because the U.S. economy is still, at its core,
a confidence machine. When consumers feel trapped, they don’t need to “panic”
to change behavior — they simply pull back, delay big purchases, and get
defensive. That’s how slowdowns take hold.
The dollar’s
drop is a louder signal than most investors want to admit
The U.S.
dollar sliding to a four-year low isn’t just a chart event. It’s an
accelerant:
And now
you’ve got currency markets watching Japan closely, with officials talking
about close coordination with the U.S. as yen volatility heats up. The point
isn’t whether there’s intervention. The point is that currencies are
starting to behave like a problem again, and when that happens, it rarely
stays “contained” for long.
Bonds are
the quiet stress-test
While the
Fed is widely expected to hold steady this week, the long end of the Treasury
market remains the potential tripwire. The 10-year has been hanging around the
low 4’s, and the 30-year has been flirting with the psychological 5%
zone again. If long yields start pushing higher while the dollar is falling,
that’s when markets stop calling it “growth” and start calling it risk
premium.
Stocks:
record highs… with a weird kind of fragility underneath
The Dow took
a hit largely because one heavyweight name got crushed (UnitedHealth), yet the
S&P 500 still managed a new high and is sitting just shy of 7,000.
That split personality is important. It tells you:
And the VIX
staying parked in the mid-teens reinforces the bigger theme: investors keep
assuming tomorrow will look like yesterday, even though currencies, metals,
and confidence indicators are flashing something very different.
What to
watch next
1.
Powell’s tone:
If the Fed downplays the dollar slide and the metal surge, it may pour more
fuel on the “hard assets vs. paper assets” narrative.
2.
The shutdown clock:
Another funding cliff is approaching fast, and markets have grown dangerously
accustomed to treating shutdown threats like background noise.
3.
The next leg in yields: If the long bond starts acting heavy again, it can change
everything quickly — housing, corporate credit, and equity multiples don’t
handle a renewed yield surge well.
Bottom line: This is starting to look like a market that’s divided into
two camps — one camp buying the “everything is fine” story through indexes, and
another camp buying insurance through metals and currencies. When those two
stories diverge this sharply, it usually means the next surprise won’t be
small.
Weekly Market Summary Page
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