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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* August 27,
2025 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web
address: http://www.fiendbear.com *
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Fiend Commentary
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The rate-cut
drumbeat is loud, but the market’s base case is still just two 25 bps cuts
by year-end. That leaves very little cushion: a couple of firmer inflation
prints and even that modest path can get repriced lower—especially with long
yields quick to jump on upside surprises.
Equities
keep hovering near highs on the “soft landing + September cut” story, but
leadership remains narrow and valuations full. If prices re-warm while growth
cools, easier policy stops being a tailwind and starts looking like triage.
Opinion, not
advice: this is a priced-for-perfection setup. Powell may hint, but data
will decide; a hot streak on inflation could turn “two cuts” into one—or
none.
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