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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 June 18, 2025                             *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Silver Breakout Defies Market Complacency

While U.S. stocks softened on Tuesday, silver made headlines by closing above $37 on June 17, marking its strongest finish in over 14 years. This surge was accompanied by a gold/silver ratio tightening below 90—a level unseen since early 2022. Some investors are now eyeing the $40–$50 range—a zone last tested during the 2011 metals boom.

Meanwhile, oil reclaimed much of Monday’s dip, rallying over 4% on Tuesday to close around $75 a barrel, amid Middle East escalations. Yet, despite heightened war tensions, markets haven’t thrown in the towel: equities remain relatively stable, and the dollar continues to hover near recent lows.

What’s fueling silver’s rally?

  • Dual-demand structure: Silver plays a rare two-role: acting both as an industrial commodity—used in electronics, solar panels, and EVs—and as a precious metal hedge.
  • Technicals align: After breaking its 13-year resistance near $35, silver carried momentum to breach $37, signaling potential for further upside.
  • Ratio signals: A sub-90 gold/silver ratio historically signals undervaluation in silver; similar conditions in 2022 and 2023 preceded impressive rallies.

Calm amid chaos: exploring the disconnect

Despite rising oil and geopolitical tensions, global equities are holding firm. That is due to a persistent market faith—faith in central banks’ safety nets, faith that inflation remains in check, and faith that global disruptions won’t spiral into full-blown crises.

But silver’s breakout suggests not all investors are on cruise control. When a typically overlooked asset starts flashing volatility, it may be signaling underlying economic disquiet.

🕵️ Watch list

  • Gold/silver ratio: A fall toward 80 would be a bullish confirmation for silver.
  • Silver’s momentum: Holding above $37 into next week could open the door to $40+ targets.
  • Oil and tensions: Further proxy escalation might drive inflation via energy—pushing metals higher.

Final thought:

Silver’s dramatic move above $37—and the expanding divergence from gold—is telling. Amid all the so-called complacency, this lesser-noticed metal may be the canary in the economic coalmine. Markets may appear unfazed—but not all prices agree.

 

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