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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* October 29,
2025 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web
address: http://www.fiendbear.com *
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Fiend Commentary
================
A 25-bp cut
is effectively a foregone conclusion today; the market’s been trading it for
weeks. All three major indexes set record closes on Tuesday, so the only
genuine “new” information will be in the words—how the Fed frames the path from
here.
What matters
now isn’t the size of the move; it’s the sequence. If the statement and Q&A
put a near-term endpoint on quantitative tightening—and hint at balance-sheet
“flexibility” if growth wobbles—then today is less about easing and more about
policy regime. That’s why gold and silver have steadied: equities are buying
relief; metals are buying the cost of relief.
With the
shutdown still darkening the dashboard, price is doing the signal work
policymakers usually do. So the reaction grid is
simple:
Dovish cut +
QT pause soon: multiples extend, the long end stays soft, metals keep the
recovery bid.
Cut, but no
glide path promised: a knee-jerk fade in risk, metals hold gains if credibility
doubts linger.
Hawkish lean
or pushback on more cuts: real yields pop, stocks wobble, metals cool—but the
bigger regime question stays unresolved.
Bottom line:
the cut can’t surprise; the framework can. If the Fed effectively trades “less
QT now” for “optionality later,” this rally broadens—and the insurance bid
under metals won’t go away just because they stopped making a new high every
day.
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