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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 July 9, 2025                              *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Copper Breaks Records on Tariff Shock

On July 8, U.S. copper futures exploded to record highs — up 12–13% in a single session, topping around $5.65/lb (~$12,330/ton) on COMEX — after President Trump announced a proposed 50% tariff on copper imports. This marked the largest one-day move since 1968, with intraday gains nearing 17% before settling.

💥 What Sparked the Surge?

  • Tariff announcement: Trump invoked national-security powers (Section 232) to propose a 50% import tariff, aiming to boost domestic copper output.
  • Global price imbalance: U.S. COMEX copper soared while LME prices held near $9,600/ton, creating a record premium of ~$2,700/ton for U.S. copper.
  • Heavy market volume: COMEX futures saw nearly 141,000 contracts traded — more than triple the prior day’s volume — indicating a rush to front-run the policy.

🔎 Why It Matters

  • Industrial impact: Copper is essential for power grids, electronics, EVs, and construction. A 50% tariff would spike costs and disrupt supply chains.
  • Escalating trade tensions: This move follows earlier tariffs on steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals — and may preview coming action on semiconductors.
  • Global ripple effects: Copper exporters like Chile face uncertainty, while U.S. refiners may struggle to scale capacity fast enough.

📌 Key Takeaways

1.     Copper is the new tariff canary — its breakout highlights the inflationary risk of sudden supply shocks.

2.     The U.S.–LME price gap could fuel record arbitrage flows before any formal implementation date.

3.     Watch for: final tariff timing, inflation response, and copper’s role in reshoring policy debates.

Bottom Line:
What began as a targeted trade policy announcement triggered a historic copper rally — a reminder of how quickly commodities can react to geopolitics and tariffs.

 

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