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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                November 26, 2025                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Build Your-Own Dashboard

Yesterday’s bounce said “dovish by default.” Today’s question is whether that was relief or regime. With the data pipe only trickling back and rate-cut odds swinging around, the cleanest way to read the tape is to watch the signals that don’t rely on a press release.

 

Four live tells (no headlines required)

  1. The long end (10-year) vs. hopes. If yields sink without hot data, multiples breathe; if they grind higher while cuts are priced, that’s the bond market veto.
  2. Credit spread tone. One-day flinches happen; sustained widening turns “buy the dip” into “de-risk the rip.”
  3. Dollar vs. metals. A firm dollar alongside firm gold/silver = markets pricing stagflationary easing (policy help that costs credibility). A dollar pop with soft metals = simple risk-off.
  4. Silver’s curve. Spot leading futures (backwardation) says “I want metal now.” If the curve normalizes while price holds the $50s, that’s healthy tightness, not panic scarcity.

How to read today’s tape

  • Continuation bull (most likely if yields behave): Tech strength spreads beyond a few tickers, breadth improves, and metals hold their shelves without spiking. That’s the market buying both relief and insurance.
  • Head-fake rally: Green open fades, breadth stays thin, and the long end firms. Equities up on fewer shoulders with metals wobbling is a short leash setup.
  • Risk-off resurface: Credit widens and the dollar pops; bounces get sold and defensive leadership returns by the close.

Positioning map

  • Treat early strength as a test of breadth, not a verdict.
  • Respect the 50-day lines as your first risk rails; lower highs into those levels are distribution, not comfort.
  • In metals, the job isn’t tagging round numbers; it’s accepting them (calm trade above ~$4,000 gold / low-$50s silver).

Bottom line: The rebound works as long as the bond market doesn’t object and breadth stops whispering. If those two cooperate, we grind higher with metals as a quiet tax on credibility. If either one says no, yesterday’s cheer was just that—cheer.

 

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