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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 January 21, 2026                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
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Sell America, Buy Silver?

Today’s market action didn’t feel like a normal “risk-off” day. It felt like something rarer and more unsettling: a moment when investors briefly treated America itself as the risk asset.

Silver surged toward $95 and gold pushed up toward the high-$4,800s. At the same time, Treasuries sold off hard enough that the 30-year yield lurched back toward the 5% zone, and the dollar weakened instead of playing its usual safe-haven role.

That combination—stocks down, bonds down, dollar down—is not your garden‑variety panic. It’s the kind of tape you see when investors are less worried about one economic statistic and more worried about the rules of the game.

Why this move felt different

The trigger wasn’t subtle: renewed tariff threats tied to the Greenland saga escalated into a broader “what’s next?” fear, especially because it involves allies and carries a whiff of retaliation.

When tariff talk gets serious, markets immediately start doing the math:

  • Tariffs can be inflationary (or at least disrupt supply chains and pricing).
  • They can slow growth by raising costs and reducing trade.
  • They can invite retaliation—sometimes not just through trade, but through capital markets and investment flows.

That’s why you saw investors stampede into metals even as Treasuries—normally the first place people hide—got hit.

Why silver is acting possessed

Gold can rally for many reasons: risk, inflation, central-bank buying, currency hedging.

Silver is different. When silver moves like this, it’s usually signaling speculation + scarcity + fear of what comes next. It has a smaller market, thinner liquidity, and it’s prone to “gap higher” moves when the crowd decides the next milestone matters.

At this point, $100 is no longer a joke target—it’s a psychological magnet. And magnets work both ways: they pull prices higher, and they also attract “sell the level” behavior once the number is close enough to touch.

Bonds and the dollar getting hit is the real warning

If this were a simple “bad headline” day, you’d typically expect:

  • stocks down,
  • yields down,
  • dollar up.

Instead, yields rose and the dollar slipped. That suggests investors aren’t just hedging growth. They’re pricing in some mix of:

  • higher inflation risk premiums,
  • policy uncertainty premiums,
  • and the possibility that foreign investors reduce exposure at the margin.

Even small moves like a pension fund publicly talking about exiting Treasuries can matter—not because of the dollar amount, but because of the message: confidence is being debated.

Powell staying could complicate the “new Fed = easy money” fantasy

The story we saw about Powell potentially remaining at the Fed matters because Wall Street has been quietly building a narrative:

“Once Powell is gone, the next chair will cut fast.”

But Powell doesn’t automatically disappear from the building just because his chair term ends. He could remain a governor (and if a successor gets delayed, he could even remain chair longer than markets assume). That scenario would throw sand in the gears of the “100 bps cuts on demand” fantasy—at least in the short run.

And it would prolong the most unusual element of this cycle: an open political battle with a sitting Fed chair.

Unravel… or fake-out?

Both outcomes are possible. Here’s the simplest way to frame it for the week ahead:

This is a fake-out if:

  • tariff threats de-escalate into negotiations,
  • yields settle back down,
  • and the dollar stabilizes.

This starts to unravel if:

  • the dollar keeps sliding while long yields keep rising,
  • metals keep climbing even on “good news” days,
  • and stocks begin treating every rally as a selling opportunity instead of “buy the dip.”

The tell is not one market. The tell is the combo.

What to watch next

  • Any walk-back (or doubling-down) on tariff threats.
  • Whether the 30-year yield flirts with 5% and then backs off—or keeps marching.
  • Whether silver can hold these gains without violent air pockets.
  • Any further developments around Fed independence and Powell’s status.

Bottom line: This wasn’t just “metals up because inflation.” This looked like a burst of hedging against policy uncertainty—where investors preferred gold and silver over both stocks and Treasuries. That’s a louder signal than most people want to admit.

 

 

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