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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                November 12, 2025                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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New Highs, Hard Money

The Dow pushed to a fresh record near 48,000 while gold cleared $4,100 and silver reclaimed $51. That’s the twin-rally signal again: stocks are buying relief; metals are buying the cost of that relief. With Washington reopened and the data pipe unclogging, the market is front-running easier policy—and hedging against what it might unleash.

The important tell isn’t tagging round numbers; it’s acceptance. If gold holds north of $4,100 and silver settles above $50 without drama, the bid is more than momentum—it’s insurance. On the equity side, records need participation, not just the usual engines. A rally that climbs while breadth thins is a great headline and a fragile foundation.

What could break the symmetry:

  • Real yields push back. A grind higher in the long end compresses multiples and cools metals—fast.
  • Dollar snapback. A sharp greenback rebound tests commodities and the overseas earnings tailwind.
  • Credit blinks. Wider spreads or sticky funding stress flips “buy the dip” into “de-risk now.”

What would extend it:

  • QT finish line → softer tone. Ending runoff on schedule and hinting at balance-sheet “flexibility” keeps both tapes buoyant.
  • Clean auctions, calm curve. A steady 10-year gives the multiple oxygen.
  • Data that’s soft, not scary. Weak-ish prints revive the cut path without forcing emergency moves.

Bottom line: New highs with hard money rising says the market expects help—and doubts it will be free. If breadth firms and metals hold their lines, the path of least resistance is still up. If the long end or credit says no, the gap between headlines and foundations will close in a hurry.

 

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