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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                December 10, 2025                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Silver’s Second Act

After $60, what’s a reasonable “north star”?

Silver didn’t tiptoe through $50—it sprinted and kept going, almost tagging $60/oz. Gold is still camped near record territory. However you slice it, that’s a major breakout in the white metal.

 

Is $100 crazy? Not if a few pieces line up:

  • The gold anchor. At tonight’s prices (roughly $4,200 gold and $60 silver), the gold/silver ratio sits near 70. In 2011 it bottomed near the low-30s; in 1980 it briefly sank to the high-teens. If gold simply grinds toward $4,500 and the ratio tightens to 45, silver math lands on $100 (4,500 ÷ 45). Push the ratio into the 30s and you’re talking triple digits with room to spare. Those are ifs—but not fairy tales.
  • The supply story. The silver market is running its fifth straight structural deficit. Even with softer industrial demand in spots this year, mine supply hasn’t kept up (most silver is a by-product of other metals, so it doesn’t surge just because price does). Deficits don’t guarantee a straight line—but they help explain why dips don’t last.
  • The policy backdrop. A rate cut is on deck while inflation isn’t back at 2%, and QT is ending. That’s a gentle way of saying real policy rates drift negative again. It’s also why gold and silver can rise with yields: investors are buying insurance on the credibility of policy, not just chasing headlines.

What could cap the move (for now)

A sharp rise in real yields, a firm dollar, or exchange margin hikes can all knock silver back into the low-50s quickly. Producers can also hedge more when prices scream, and high prices invite scrap back to market. None of that ends a bull market, but it can reset the clock.

What I’m watching this week

1.     The close, not the spike. Calm finishes in the high-50s matter more than intraday fireworks.

2.     The ratio. If it keeps slipping toward the 60s, $60 won’t feel like a ceiling for long.

3.     ETF/coin flows and refinery lead times. Tight retail product and longer waits say the squeeze isn’t just on a screen.

Bottom line: After clearing $50 and racing toward $60, silver has earned the right to dream bigger. $100 isn’t a promise, but it’s a plausible destination if gold holds high ground and the ratio keeps falling toward its historic “tight” zones. The story won’t be a straight line—silver never is—but the map finally points that way.

 

 

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