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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                               February 18, 2026                           *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
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Metals Hold the Line as Bonds Whisper “Slowdown”

After the Monday holiday, the first full session back had that uneasy, “feet not quite planted” feeling. Stocks were choppy, headlines were thin, and the real action was once again in the markets that tend to sniff out trouble first: precious metals, rates, and the dollar.

Gold and silver took another punch on Tuesday, then steadied and bounced overnight. Gold briefly dipped below the $4,900 area before climbing back into the mid-$4,900s. Silver probed down toward the low-$70s and then snapped back into the mid-$70s. In other words, the selloff found buyers — quickly.

That’s worth noting because it supports the idea that a base may be forming. It doesn’t mean the volatility is over (far from it), but it does mean the market isn’t behaving like a “one-and-done” peak. If gold can keep holding the high-$4,800s/low-$4,900s zone and silver can keep defending the low-$70s, then $5,000 in gold isn’t “a dream” — it’s just nearby overhead resistance.

Stocks are telling a more complicated story. Tuesday’s close was slightly positive, but it masked big intraday swings. The Dow’s ability to hang around major psychological levels looks impressive at a glance, but the broader market still feels heavy. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are not acting like markets in a clean, confident breakout — more like markets trying to stay upright while leadership rotates and conviction comes and goes.

The bond market, meanwhile, is quietly doing what it does before the headlines catch up: it’s leaning toward caution. The 10-year yield is hovering just above 4% again, near the low end of its recent range. That usually reflects some mix of “growth is cooling,” “inflation isn’t re-accelerating right now,” and “the Fed will eventually have to ease later this year if the data weakens.” You don’t need a recession call for yields to drift down — you just need investors to start preferring safety over stories.

And the dollar? It’s not collapsing in a straight line, but it still looks vulnerable. Even when it catches a brief bounce, it doesn’t feel like a currency the market wants to own with conviction. That backdrop — shaky confidence in growth, lower yields, and a dollar that struggles to sustain rallies — is exactly the kind of environment where gold and silver can stay supported even when they get hit hard in the short term.

What could change the mood this week isn’t “big news.” It’s the next few data points that markets use to confirm or reject the slowdown narrative. The Fed’s last meeting minutes and the upcoming inflation data are the main checkpoints. If the tone is cautious and the data keeps softening, traders will start pulling future rate-cut expectations forward again — and that’s when metals tend to reassert themselves.

For now, the message is simple: stocks are trying to look calm, bonds are quietly cautious, and the metals market is acting like it still doesn’t trust the long-term story. When those three disagree, expect more whiplash — not less.

 

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