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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT *

* February 11, 2026 *

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* e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com *

* web address: http://www.fiendbear.com *

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Fiend Commentary
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Silver’s Shakeout: How 1980 and 2011 Compare to Today

Gold is still holding above the psychologically important $5,000 level, and silver is still holding the low-$80s after last week’s brutal drop. That matters because the first real test of any parabolic move is not the peak. It’s what happens after the first air pocket.

So far, this “shakeout” is violent, but it doesn’t yet resemble the classic silver collapses of 1980 or 2011 where the market didn’t just correct, it broke down into a long, demoralizing retreat.

A quick look back puts today’s action in perspective.

1. 1980: the true historical “collapse”
Silver’s 1980 episode wasn’t simply an overheated chart. It was a full-blown corner attempt colliding with leverage, margin pressure, and rule changes. After silver ran up to about $49.45 an ounce in mid-January 1980, it imploded over the following weeks. On “Silver Thursday” (March 27, 1980), Britannica notes silver fell to $10.80 in a single plunge. That is the blueprint of a structural break: nearly an 80% wipeout from the peak, and it damaged more than just speculators.

The point: 1980 was a regime change, not a routine correction.

2. 2011: a modern “margin and momentum” unwind
The 2011 peak had a different feel: less corner, more momentum and crowding. Silver ran to roughly $49.85 in late April 2011 and then dropped to about $34.95 within days as margin requirements were raised and speculative fever cooled. That is the pattern of a frothy market getting deflated quickly: fast drop, forced selling, and then a longer period where the market struggled to regain its footing.

The point: 2011 looked like a momentum bubble meeting the real world.

3. 2026: the first big break… followed by buyers showing up
Last week’s drop clearly belongs in the “historic volatility” category. Euronews reported silver fell 31% on Friday, and gold slid sharply off a record high. But what’s different so far is what happened next: instead of continuing to cascade lower day after day, the metals found a bid again. Wednesday’s trade has gold back around $5,050 and silver around $82, helped by a fresh dip in Treasury yields after weak retail sales data hinted the consumer may be cooling.

In other words, this looks more like “violent de-leveraging” than “end of story.”

Why might there be more support this time?

• The dollar has been struggling to hold rallies, and a softer dollar tends to keep the metals bid.
• Bond yields have backed off on softer economic data, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
• The Silver Institute is still describing the silver market as structurally tight, with another year of deficit projected and retail investment expected to rise, even if some industrial demand cools.

None of that guarantees higher prices. But it helps explain why the market is not behaving like it did after the 1980 or 2011 peaks—at least not yet.

Stocks and bonds are also telling a “split-screen” story

• The Dow is still holding above 50,000, but the broader market is less triumphant than the headline suggests. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain below their record highs, and the S&P still can’t convincingly clear the 7,000 level.
• Bonds are calmer than the metals, but the long end remains a quiet pressure point. The 30-year yield is still in the high-4% range—close enough to 5% to keep everyone honest about what borrowing costs can do to an economy built on credit.

What to watch next

The next few reports matter more than usual because the market is trying to answer one big question: was last week’s metals smash a “top,” or just a leverage flush inside a larger uptrend?

Here are the tells:

• Jobs data and inflation data: confirmation of a real slowdown would revive rate-cut talk, which can re-ignite the metals. Hot inflation would make that trade far more unstable.
• The dollar: if it keeps drifting lower, gold and silver will likely stay supported. If it stabilizes and rises, metals volatility could return quickly.
• The 30-year yield: if it pushes back toward 5% and sticks, it tightens conditions even without the Fed doing anything—bad for fragile areas of the economy and eventually a headwind for stocks.

Bottom line: this is not 1980—yet. It’s not even clearly 2011—yet. But we are now in the phase where metals are no longer a smooth trend; they’re a referendum on confidence, currency, and whether policy will have to turn easier again as spring approaches.

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