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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                December 30, 2025                          *

*                                                                           *

*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Silver’s Air Pocket: A Breakout Meets the Margin Clerk

If you’re wondering whether silver is “acting normal,” the answer is no — and that’s the point.

 

In the span of hours, silver ripped above $83, plunged into the low-$70s (around $71 at the worst of it), then clawed back toward the mid-$70s. Gold had its own version of the same story: a fast reversal that translated into roughly a $150–$200 drop from the highs, erasing a couple days of euphoric gains in one messy swoop.

 

This kind of action feels like chaos, but it’s also one of the most reliable tells in a late-stage metals run:

 

When a market goes parabolic, the first “real” correction rarely arrives politely.
It arrives like a trap door.

 

What actually happened

 

The simplest explanation is not mysterious at all:

 

1.     Thin year-end liquidity amplified every push and pull.

2.     Profit-taking finally showed up — not because the bull case vanished, but because the move had become too steep, too fast, and too crowded.

3.     Leverage got squeezed after the CME raised margin requirements for precious metals contracts.

 

That last point matters. When margins rise, traders who are “right” but over-leveraged often get forced to reduce positions anyway. It’s not a debate about fundamentals — it’s basic plumbing. You can be bullish and still be forced to sell.

 

So yes, the rally may be “starting to peter out” near year-end — but it may also just be doing what silver does after a vertical run: shake people out violently, then see what’s left.

 

The key question: correction… or the beginning of the end?

This is where it gets interesting, because silver’s biggest rallies often end in one of two ways:

Path A: Healthy shakeout (bull market continues)

  • Big intraday damage
  • But the metal holds the breakout zone on closes
  • Dip buyers show up quickly
  • The market “rebuilds energy” for another leg higher

 

Path B: Blow-off top (trend changes)

  • The correction keeps cascading
  • Rebounds look weak and fleeting
  • Former support doesn’t hold
  • The metal starts closing poorly day after day
  • The narrative shifts from “scarcity and hedging” to “everyone’s heading for the exits”

 

We do not have enough evidence yet to declare Path B. But we do have enough evidence to say the easy part is over. Once silver starts moving like this, the market stops being a smooth trend and becomes a psychology test.

 

Does $70 and $4,500 hold?

 

This is the right way to frame it, but with a nuance:

  • $70 in silver is now the line between “historic breakout with volatility” and “failed breakout that turns into a larger correction.”
  • $4,500 in gold is likely more of a pivot now — depending on where gold settles after the whipsaw. If gold is closing below $4,500, then it becomes resistance again. If it reclaims and holds it, it reinforces the “regime shift” narrative.

 

For the final sessions of the year, it’s not the intraday spikes that matter most. It’s the closes.

 

Why this whipsaw can happen even with “strong demand”

 

Because there are two different types of demand:

  • Conviction demand (long-term holders, physical buyers, strategic allocators)
  • Momentum demand (fast money, leveraged traders, late chasers)

 

A violent downdraft is often just the market separating those two groups.

 

If the bull move is real, the character of the buying changes after the shakeout. Instead of frantic chasing, you see more “buying the dip,” quieter accumulation, and a steadier tape.

 

Meanwhile, stocks and the VIX are sending the opposite message

 

This is what makes the end-of-year setup so strange.

 

Stocks are still close to highs, and volatility has been sitting near multi‑month lows. That’s the market saying:
“Relax. Nothing scary is imminent.”

 

But silver doesn’t surge, break $80, then whip around like this unless something deeper is being priced in — even if it isn’t being said out loud in equity land.

It may simply be:

 

  • positioning and momentum,
  • a late-year scramble for hedges,
  • or expectations for easier money into 2026.

Or it may be something more fundamental:

  • doubts about policy discipline,
  • fiscal credibility,
  • and the long-run purchasing power story.

 

Either way, the combination is telling: equity complacency + metals turbulence is not a comfortable mix.

 

How the last few trading days usually play out

 

Into the final sessions, there are a few “tells” that will decide whether the new year starts on the front foot or the back foot:

1.     Can silver repeatedly close above $70?
If silver closes below $70 and stays there, the breakout is compromised.
If it wobbles but holds, the bull case remains intact — just more volatile.

2.     Does gold stabilize quickly?
If gold can stop the bleeding and recover key levels, it calms the entire complex. If gold keeps sliding while silver whipsaws, the market starts to smell “late-cycle froth.”

3.     Do miners hold up better than the metals?
When the equities tied to the metal stop confirming, it’s often an early warning sign. When miners stay firm despite a metal pullback, it can signal the shakeout is tactical, not terminal.

4.     Does VIX stay asleep?
If the VIX stays low while metals convulse, it says the stress is still compartmentalized. If VIX starts rising while stocks are still near highs, it’s a sign the hedging instinct is spreading.

 

A direct call for year-end

Here’s the non-mealy-mouth view:

  • Base case: this is a violent consolidation, not the end of the bull market — yet.
  • But if silver closes below $70 for more than a couple sessions and gold fails to reclaim/hold $4,500, the odds rise sharply that the year-end move was a blow-off, and the first weeks of the new year could start “on the back foot” with a deeper, faster pullback than most late buyers are prepared for.

Silver can be wildly bullish long-term and still punish anyone who mistakes a vertical line for a straight line.

 

 

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