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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 June 24, 2025                             *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Calm After the Flash: Markets Rally on Ceasefire News

Oil, which surged above $75 late Sunday on fresh U.S.–Iran strikes, plunged nearly 7% during Asian trading as reports emerged of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Brent crude collapsed to around $66–$68 a barrel, marking a sharp swing from recent highs.

U.S. futures followed suit, with the S&P 500 up ~1% and Nasdaq and Dow futures rallying more than 0.8%. Asian and European markets jumped similarly, emboldened by the retreat of the war premium.

Why it happened

  • Iran’s theatrical but restrained retaliation—targeting a U.S. base in Qatar while warning in advance—signaled no appetite to close the Strait of Hormuz or disrupt oil flows.
  • Trader psychology: once fears of escalation retreated, markets quickly unwound their hedges and embraced risk. Oil’s downward drop reflected that relief.

What to Watch Next

  • Ceasefire durability: Iran agreed to stand down 'if Israel stops attacks'—a fragile truce at best. Any flare-up could snap bearish sentiment.
  • Gold & Silver: expect modest pullbacks unless conflict continues. Safe-haven demand may fade.
  • Fed signals: With oil easing and equity sentiment improving, markets may increasingly price in a July rate cut, especially after dovish commentary from the Fed.

Final thought:
Markets seem to believe the worst is behind us—at least for now. But one carefully chosen strike isn’t peace. Still, after a week of uncertainty, this Monday rally shows how quickly sentiment can shift when risk is reined in.

 

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