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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                November 25, 2025                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Dovish by Default

Tech ripped back, bond yields slipped, and metals sprinted—classic “easier policy” tape. December cut odds popped back toward ~75%, and with the data backlog still clearing, markets are filling in the blanks: a friendlier Fed, softer financial conditions, and maybe balance-sheet “flexibility” if growth wobbles.

 

The risk is what’s implied under the hood. With inflation hovering near ~3%, a fresh cut re-widens negative real policy rates—rocket fuel for assets and a tax on cash. Metals aren’t just momentum; they’re the market’s way of saying the price of relief is paid in the currency. Yields fell, but not for the “everything’s fine” reasons—more for “policy will bend,” which props multiples today and invites credibility questions tomorrow.

 

Fiscal doesn’t argue otherwise. Any pretense of spending restraint has faded, so the backdrop is lower rates + looser fiscal into sticky prices. That’s why you can get tech and gold up together: one buys relief, the other buys the cost of relief.

 

What could flip the script

 

  • A real-yield snapback: one stronger print or a hawkish nuance and the multiple loses oxygen fast.
  • Credit blinking: HY spreads that widen and stay wider turn today’s bounce into a sell-the-rip.
  • Breadth stall: if leadership narrows back to a handful of tickers, the rebound becomes cosmetic.

 

What extends it

 

  • Clean auctions / calm curve: term premium contained keeps equities buoyant.
  • Data that are soft—not scary: enough weakness to validate cuts without screaming recession.
  • Metals holding without spiking: insurance bid intact, not a blow-off.

 

Bottom line: The market is trading a dovish Fed by assumption. That works—until the first hard number or bond auction says otherwise. Enjoy the rebound but remember the mechanism: lower real rates and easy fiscal are pulling the sled. If either stumble, the run back down is quicker than the climb.

 

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