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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 January 13, 2026                          *

*                                                                           *

*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
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Records on the Screen, Smoke in the Background

If you only watched the closing bells, you’d think this market is bulletproof.

Stocks wobbled early, then shrugged off the headlines and finished at fresh records anyway. Gold ripped to new highs above $4,600, and silver didn’t just “participate” — it stole the show, blasting higher into the mid‑$80s at one point. Meanwhile the dollar weakened again and long yields refused to behave, with the 10‑year briefly pushing above 4.2%.

That is not a normal mix. It’s a market celebrating…and hedging…at the same time.

The rally’s new superpower: ignoring what used to matter

Yesterday was a perfect example of the new market psychology:

  • The DOJ probe into Fed Chair Powell would have been a volatility event in almost any other era.
  • Political pressure on Fed independence would have rattled the dollar and risk assets for longer than a few hours.
  • Geopolitical tension would have kept investors defensive.

Instead, we got the modern pattern: initial dip, quick stabilization, and then new highs by the close. Markets are acting as if “institutional turbulence” is just another headline — not a risk factor.

That may work…until the day it doesn’t.

Why metals are acting “too loud” for comfort

Gold and silver are not behaving like ordinary inflation hedges right now. They’re behaving like credibility hedges.

When gold is making records while stocks are also hitting records, it usually means investors are running two portfolios at once:

1.     A performance portfolio (stocks and anything that benefits from liquidity and optimism)

2.     An insurance portfolio (metals, because the system feels increasingly political and debt‑heavy)

Silver’s move is the more revealing one because it tends to exaggerate the message. Silver doesn’t politely trend. It surges when the market feels cornered — tight supply, crowded positioning, and rising anxiety about what comes next.

And the “what comes next” question is now moving from inflation to policy.

Yields up, dollar down: the combination that should not be comfortable

Normally, a market that’s confident and risk‑on wants:

  • the dollar stable or rising, and
  • long yields stable or falling.

Instead, we’re flirting with the opposite:

  • the dollar slipping again,
  • the long end creeping higher,
  • and metals surging anyway.

That’s a tell: it suggests investors are less convinced the U.S. can glide into an easy‑money regime without paying a price later — either through inflation psychology, risk premiums, or credibility damage.

“Rate cuts off the table”…for now

Yes, stocks are acting like cuts are always around the corner. But the interest‑rate market is sending a more nuanced message.

After Friday’s “stall-speed” jobs report (weak job creation but a lower unemployment rate and firm wage growth), major banks have pushed back their timing for the next Fed cut — and futures imply a very high probability the Fed holds steady in January.

So cuts aren’t dead — they’re just not imminent. And that matters because it means the market is rallying less on “cuts next month” and more on something broader:

The belief that the next Fed regime will eventually be more aggressive.

The summer risk scenario: the worst possible mix

Imagine a new Fed chair arrives under intense political pressure and tries to “prove” support for growth with jumbo cuts—even if inflation is still sticky or reaccelerating. A 100‑bp cut into rising inflation wouldn’t be stimulus; it would be a credibility event.

That’s how you get:

  • a weaker dollar,
  • higher long-term yields (risk premium),
  • stronger commodities and metals,
  • and eventually a stock market that realizes liquidity is no longer “free.”

In other words, the disaster isn’t a recession by itself.

The disaster is a policy response that convinces people inflation discipline has been abandoned.

What matters today: inflation prints and market interpretation

All eyes are on the next inflation report. But the more important issue isn’t whether the CPI is a tenth above or below expectations.

It’s whether the market decides:

  • “Inflation is calm, so policy can ease later,” or
  • “Inflation is calm because of distortions and lags, and we’re about to misread the cycle again.”

Because if investors start suspecting the second interpretation, the metals market is going to stay bid — and the long end of the bond market is going to keep pushing back.

Bottom line

Stocks are acting like nothing can stop the rally — not politics, not geopolitics, not even a direct challenge to Fed independence.

Gold and silver are acting like that confidence is exactly the problem.

Both can be right for a while.
But they can’t both be right forever.

 

 

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