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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* February 24,
2026 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web address:
http://www.fiendbear.com
*
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Fiend Commentary
================
50K
Hangover: Stocks Slip, Metals Hold Firm, and Bonds Keep Whispering “Inflation”
Monday was the kind of
session that reminds you how quickly “inevitable” turns into “fragile.”
After flirting with the
psychological fireworks of Dow 50,000, the market suddenly acted like it
remembered something important: prices still matter, interest rates still
matter, and not every shiny narrative survives contact with higher yields,
trade uncertainty, and a world that won’t sit still.
The Dow fell 821.91 points (‑1.66%)
to 48,804.06, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.04% to 6,837.75 and the Nasdaq
slid 1.13% to 22,627.27. Small caps were hit too, with the Russell 2000 down
1.61%. That’s not a “crash,” but it’s a meaningful slap after weeks of “nothing
can touch this market.”
And here’s the part that
should keep everyone honest: the Dow is still up year-to-date, but the Nasdaq
is down for the year and the S&P 500 has barely moved. That’s not a broad,
healthy advance — it’s a narrow one. When leadership gets tired, the whole
parade looks different.
Why the tape
changed: the bond market won’t play along
Stocks can tell stories.
Bonds keep score.
Even as equity bulls talk
about “the next cut,” the long end keeps refusing to behave. The U.S. 10-year
yield was around 4.04% early Tuesday, and the stubbornness of longer yields
continues to say the quiet part out loud: the bond market is not convinced
inflation is dead, and it’s not convinced policy risk is going away.
That matters because a lot of
this cycle has been built on the assumption that the Fed always rides to the
rescue — quickly, aggressively, and with a printing press if needed. But the
Fed can’t credibly sprint back to easy money if inflation indicators start
pushing the wrong way again.
One example: the New York
Fed’s Multivariate Core Trend inflation measure ticked up to 2.8% in December
from 2.4% previously. That’s not “mission accomplished” — that’s inflation with
a pulse.
Bitcoin is
acting like a risk asset again
Bitcoin didn’t “diversify”
anyone on Monday. It behaved like what it often is in practice: a high-beta
expression of risk appetite.
Bitcoin fell about 4% on
Monday, briefly dipping below $64,000 and trading around the mid‑$64,000
area. That puts the $60,000 handle back in view — not because $60K is magical,
but because it’s where psychology changes. When traders start talking in round
numbers, you’re already in the zone where forced selling can show up fast.
If the Nasdaq is forming a
rolling top, crypto usually doesn’t get a free pass.
Meanwhile,
gold and silver are sending a different message
Here’s the disconnect that
makes this market so fascinating — and so dangerous:
Gold rose strongly on Monday
(up over 2% at one point), then slipped early Tuesday to about $5,167 as
traders took profits after the surge. Silver was around $87 and change early
Tuesday — down on the day, but still nowhere near the panic lows from earlier
this month when it briefly traded into the low $70s.
This doesn’t look like “the
end of the metals move.” It looks like a market trying to decide whether metals
are a trade… or a verdict.
When gold and silver keep
finding buyers after selloffs — while the dollar struggles and bonds refuse to
fully relax — that usually isn’t about greed. It’s about doubt. Doubt about
inflation. Doubt about fiscal discipline. Doubt about what the next “fix” is
going to look like.
Tariffs,
geopolitics, and oil: the inflation accelerant nobody wants to talk about
If you want an inflation
story that doesn’t require any exotic theories, start here: oil.
Brent crude traded around $72
and U.S. crude near $67, with traders focused on U.S.–Iran tensions ahead of
another round of nuclear talks. Even without an actual supply disruption, the
mere risk premium can lift prices — and that’s exactly the kind of pressure
that shows up later in transportation and everyday costs.
Layer on trade policy
uncertainty (tariffs, legal rulings, countermeasures, retaliation threats), and
you get the recipe for the kind of inflation that’s hardest to extinguish: the
kind that seeps into everything and gets “normalized.”
My view:
tech led the bull… and it will lead the bear when it turns
If the next leg down comes,
it’s unlikely to start with the boring stuff. It starts with leadership
cracking.
Tech led the current bull
market higher. If the Nasdaq is indeed tracing a broad topping process — months
of churning, stalled breakouts, heavy dependence on a shrinking number of names
— then the next risk isn’t “a bad day.” The risk is a regime change where
rallies stop being reflexively bought.
That’s when investors
discover the difference between a strong market and an expensive one.
What to
watch next (the real “tell” for spring)
If you want a simple
dashboard for the next few weeks, here it is:
Bottom line: Tuesday feels
like a market trying to regain its footing after a sudden reminder that easy
narratives don’t cancel hard math. The spring setup is clear — inflation
pressure is not gone, growth is uneven, geopolitics is a wildcard, and the bond
market is not signing off on the party.
If tech rolls over for real,
it won’t be a gentle fade. It will be the kind of shift where investors realize
— all at once — that they were pricing perfection in a world that doesn’t do
perfection.
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