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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT *
* July 1, 2025 *
* *
* e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com *
* web address: http://www.fiendbear.com *
*****************************************************************************
Fiend Commentary
================
June’s Mad Dash: Stocks at
Records, Dollar in Tatters
June 2025 will go down as one of
the most surreal months in recent market history. Despite a war in the Middle
East, renewed trade war threats, plunging consumer confidence, and ominous
signals from the bond market, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed the month at
fresh all-time highs.
After the April “Liberation Day”
sell-off, stocks staged an astounding rally:
·
The
S&P 500 surged nearly 25% from its April lows, closing June at
6,173.07—marking an 86% gain since the bond bear market began in August 2020.
·
The
Nasdaq Composite soared alongside, driven by the Magnificent 7 tech stocks
(Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla), which posted
average gains of over 30% since April.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index
(DXY) collapsed to a new three-year low, falling nearly 6% in June alone. This
reflects both expectations for Fed rate cuts and concerns over America’s fiscal
path.
On the geopolitical front, the
month began with markets on edge over U.S.-Iran tensions that escalated into
airstrikes by late June. Oil prices spiked to $77 a barrel mid-month but
settled closer to $65 as fears of broader escalation faded.
Economic fundamentals didn’t
justify the euphoria:
·
The
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell 5.4 points to 93.0 in
June—well below levels signaling economic strength.
·
The
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index touched lows not seen since the
early 1980s, underscoring growing household pessimism.
Despite this, Wall Street latched
onto dovish signals from the Fed: futures markets now price in only a 25%
chance of a July rate cut, but over 90% odds of a cut by September. Investors
seem to believe bad news will guarantee easy money—and stocks have taken off
accordingly.
Yet risks loom large: the extreme
concentration of gains in a handful of megacap tech names, the historic
divergence between stocks and bonds, and the continued erosion of the dollar
all hint at instability under the market’s shiny surface.
As the first half of 2025 closes,
the question remains: how long can markets ignore cracks in the economy before
gravity returns?
Index 06/30/25 Mn Chng
Mnth % Yr Chng Year % 2K Chg* 2000 %
------ --------
------- ------ -------
------ -------- ------
Dow30 44094.77 1824.70
4.3% 1550.55 3.6% 32597.65 283.5%
Trans 15394.51 708.21
4.8% -501.24 -3.2% 12417.31 417.1%
Utils 1054.45 13.56
1.3% 71.71 7.3%
771.09 272.1%
S&P500 6204.95 293.26
5.0% 323.32 5.5%
4735.70 322.3%
Nasdaq 20369.73
1255.96 6.6% 1058.94
5.5% 16300.42 400.6%
NYSE 20429.55 645.78
3.3% 1332.45 7.0%
N/A N/A
Rus2000 2175.04
108.75 5.3% -55.12
-2.5% 1670.29 330.9%
Amex 5781.32 586.94
11.3% 1095.04 23.4%
4912.58 565.5%
Val Lne11287.55
453.94 4.2% 256.35
2.3% 10261.75 1000.4%
30Yr Tr 47.70 -1.50
3.0% -0.10 0.2%
-17.10 26.4%
Bnk Idx 139.65 12.18
9.6% 12.18 9.6%
62.65 81.4%
MSH 35 6242.88 561.65
9.9% 927.62 17.5%
5322.10 578.0%
Housing 641.36 23.11
3.7% -46.57 -6.8%
N/A N/A
Airline 56.36 -0.96
-1.7% -10.69 -15.9%
-97.11 -63.3%
Retail 6846.14 285.78
4.4% -33.46 -0.5%
N/A N/A
* Change since 12/31/1999
Winners-Losers
19-11 20-9
Dow Industrials
Jun-30 Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg Year
%
---------------
------ ------ ------ ------
------
Goldman Sachs
707.75 107.30 17.9% 135.13
23.6%
Nike
71.04 10.45 17.2%
-4.63 -6.1%
Intel
22.40 2.85 14.6%
2.35 11.7%
IBM
294.78 35.72 13.8%
74.95 34.1%
Caterpillar
388.21 40.18 11.5%
25.45 7.0%
Cisco
69.38 6.34 10.1%
10.18 17.2%
JP Morgan Chase
289.91 25.91 9.8%
50.20 20.9%
Disney
124.01 10.97 9.7%
12.66 11.4%
American Exprss
318.98 24.93 8.5%
22.19 7.5%
Microsoft
497.41 37.05 8.0%
75.91 18.0%
Amazon
219.39 14.38 7.0%
0.00 0.0%
Chevron-Texaco
143.19 6.49 4.7%
-1.65 -1.1%
UnitedHealth
311.97 10.06 3.3%-193.89 -38.3%
Merck
79.16 2.32 3.0% -20.32 -20.4%
SalesForce.com
272.69 7.32 2.8% -61.64 -18.4%
Honeywell
232.88 6.21 2.7%
6.99 3.1%
Minn Mining Mnf
152.24 3.89 2.6%
23.15 17.9%
Apple
205.17 4.32 2.2% -45.25 -18.1%
Boeing
209.53 2.21 1.1%
32.53 18.4%
Home Depot
366.64 -1.65 -0.4% -22.35
-5.7%
Wal-Mart
97.78 -0.94 -1.0%
7.43 8.2%
Verizon Comm
43.27 -0.69 -1.6%
3.28 8.2%
Johnson-Johnson
152.75 -2.46 -1.6%
8.13 5.6%
Coca-Cola
70.75 -1.35 -1.9%
8.49 13.6%
Visa
355.05 -10.14 -2.8%
39.01 12.3%
Travelers
267.54 -8.16 -3.0%
26.65 11.1%
Amgen
279.21 -8.97 -3.1%
18.57 7.1%
Dow
26.48 -1.26 -4.5% -13.65 -34.0%
Procter-Gamble
159.32 -10.57 -6.2%
-8.33 -5.0%
McDonald's
292.17 -21.68 -6.9%
2.28 0.8%
Fiend's Prime-25©
-----------------
Winners-Losers
15-10 18-7
Company Jun-30
Mn Chg Month Yr Chg Year %
--------------- -------
------- ------ ------- ------
NVIDIA
157.99 22.86 16.9%
23.70 17.6%
Meta (FB)
738.09 90.60 14.0%
152.58 26.1%
Broadcom
275.65 33.58 13.9%
43.81 18.9%
Netflix
1339.13 131.90 10.9%
447.81 50.2%
JP Morgan Chase
289.91 25.91 9.8%
50.20 20.9%
Microsoft
497.41 37.05 8.0%
75.91 18.0%
Bank of America
47.32 3.19 7.2%
3.37 7.7%
Amazon
219.39 14.38 7.0%
0.00 0.0%
Eli Lilly
779.53 41.86 5.7%
7.53 1.0%
Exxon Mobil
107.80 5.50 5.4%
0.23 0.2%
UnitedHealth
311.97 10.06 3.3% -193.89 -38.3%
Salesforce
272.69 7.32 2.8%
-61.64 -18.4%
Google
177.39 4.54 2.6%
-13.05 -6.9%
Apple Comp
205.17 4.32 2.2%
-45.25 -18.1%
Abbvie
185.62 -0.49 -0.3%
7.92 4.5%
Home Depot
366.64 -1.65 -0.4%
-22.35 -5.7%
Walmart
97.78 -0.94 -1.0%
7.43 8.2%
Johnson-Johnson
152.75 -2.46 -1.6%
8.13 5.6%
Visa Inc.
355.05 -10.14 -2.8%
39.01 12.3%
Berkshire Hath
485.77 -18.19 -3.6%
32.49 7.2%
Mastercard
561.94 -23.66 -4.0%
35.37 6.7%
Costco
989.94 -50.24 -4.8%
73.67 8.0%
Procter-Gamble
159.32 -10.57 -6.2%
-8.33 -5.0%
Tesla
317.66 -28.80 -8.3%
-86.18 -21.3%
Prime-25© 28252.57
1634.88 6.1% 1155.37 4.3%
RNK Company (Bil)
P/E Yield Symb Sector
--- -----------------
------ ------- ----- ----
---------------
1. NVIDIA $3853 53.74
0.03% NVDA Technology
2. Microsoft $3696 38.44
0.64% MSFT Technology
3. Apple $3065 32.01
0.49% AAPL Technology
4. Amazon $2328 35.79
0.00% AMZN Consumer
5. Google $2144 19.78
0.45% GOOG Communication
6. Meta (FB) $1854 28.79
0.27% META Communication
7. Broadcom $1296 133.16
0.81% AVGO Technology
8. Berkshire Hath $1047
12.94 0.00% BRK-B Financial
9. Tesla $1023 174.54
0.00% TSLA Consumer
10. JP Morgan Chase
$806 14.23 1.74% JPM
Financial
11. Walmart
$782 41.97 0.91% WMT
Consumer
12. Eli Lilly
$739 64.58 0.72% LLY
Healthcare
13. Visa Inc.
$688 36.12 0.64% V
Financial
14. Oracle
$612 51.32 0.78% ORCL
Technology
15. Netflix
$570 63.29 0.00% NFLX
Communication
16. Mastercard
$507 39.41 0.51% MA
Financial
17. Exxon Mobil
$465 14.26 3.64% XOM
Energy
18. Costco
$440 57.79 0.48% COST
Consumer
19. Procter-Gamble
$373 25.29 2.56% PG
Consumer
20. Johnson-Johnson
$368 16.97 3.25% JNJ
Healthcare
21. Home Depot
$364 24.57 2.47% HD
Consumer
22. Bank of America
$358 14.13 2.16% BAC
Financial
23. Abbvie
$329 78.99 3.44% ABBV
Healthcare
24. UnitedHealth
$284 13.04 2.69% UNH
Healthcare
25. Salesforce
$262 42.88 0.59% CRM
Technology
Prime-25© $28,253 31.88
0.64%
Changes for 2025:
NFLX, Netflix, CRM Salesforce, BAC Bank of America were added
while
CVX Chevron, MRK Merck, and ADBE Adobe were removed.
Currencies
----------
Crrncy Jun-30 Mn Chg
Mnth % Yr Chg Year %
2K Chg* 2000 %
------ ------- ------
------ ------ ------
------- ------
Pound 137.34 2.81
2.1% 12.19 9.7%
-24.56 -15.2%
SwFrnc 126.08 4.53
3.7% 15.91 14.4%
62.61 98.6%
Euro 117.87 4.39
3.9% 14.37 13.9%
16.26 16.0%
Yen 69.40 -0.06
-0.1% 5.87 9.2%
-29.52 -29.8%
US Dlr 96.88 -2.45
-2.5% -11.61 -10.7%
-4.54 -4.5%
Commodities
-----------
Aug
Cmmdty Jun-30 Mn Chg
Mnth % Yr Chg Year % 2K Chng* 2000 %
------ ---------
------- ------ -------
------ -------- ------
Gold $3,307.70 -$7.70
-0.2% $590.80 21.7%$3,018.10 1042.2%
XAU 205.64 13.42
7.0% 68.46 49.9%
137.67 202.5%
Oil/Jl $65.11 $5.32
8.9% -$4.38 -6.3%
$39.51 154.3%
XOI 1777.77 85.71
5.1% 14.22 0.8%
1274.77 253.4%
CRB 297.28 6.85
2.4% 0.56 0.2%
92.14 44.9%
Foreign Markets
---------------
Exchng Jun-30 Mnth Chg
Mnth % Year Chg Year % 2K
Chng* 2000 %
------ --------- --------
------ -------- ------
-------- ------
TSX 26857.11 682.06
2.6% 2129.17 8.6% 18443.36 219.2%
IPC 57450.88 -390.81
-0.7% 7937.61 16.0% 50321.00 705.8%
BVSP 138854.60 1828.00
1.3% 18571.20
15.4%121762.60 712.4%
FTSE 8760.96 -11.42
-0.1% 587.94 7.2%
1830.76 26.4%
CAC-40 7665.91 -85.98
-1.1% 285.17 3.9%
1707.59 28.7%
DAX 23909.61 -87.87
-0.4% 4000.47 20.1% 16951.47 243.6%
Swiss 11921.46 -305.62
-2.5% 320.56 2.8%
4351.36 57.5%
Nikkei 40487.39 2522.29
6.6% 592.85 1.5% 21553.05 113.8%
HngSng 24072.28 782.51
3.4% 4012.33 20.0%
7110.18 41.9%
AllOrd 8773.00 112.70
1.3% 352.50 4.2%
5620.50 178.3%
* Change since 12/31/1999
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