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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                October 28, 2025                           *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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The Haze Trade

Another day, another record. The majors push higher—again—while gold and silver leak after a blistering run. A cut this week? Already in the price. The real bet is simpler: markets are sniffing balance-sheet help next—if not outright QE, then “optionalities” that rhyme with it.

 

The shutdown keeps the dashboard dim. We don’t know what unemployment is doing, and that vacuum rewards the story with the cleanest headline: cheaper money cures all. Stocks run with it. Metals hesitate, but they’re still miles above their old ceilings—insurance doesn’t have to make a new high every day to be demanded.

 

This rally is less about the size of the cut than the sequence: end QT → cut again → hint at balance-sheet support if growth wobbles. That’s enough to levitate multiples, even with soft fundamentals and a foggy tape.

 

What could snap the spell:

 

A real-yield surprise. One hot print (once data return) or a hawkish phrase, and multiples compress while metals cool—fast.

 

A credit wobble that sticks. Not headlines—behavior. Wider spreads, sticky funding stress, or a regional-bank relapse would puncture “buy the dip.”

 

A dollar jolt. A sharp greenback rebound tests commodities and the overseas earnings tailwind.

 

What would confirm the haze trade:

 

Powell shelving QT on a short fuse and nodding to “balance-sheet flexibility.”

 

Solid Treasury auctions keeping the 10-year soft, preserving the equity cushion.

 

Metals stabilizing above their breakout lines ($4,000 gold, $50 silver) even without new highs.

 

Bottom line: Wall Street’s in a haze—no data, easy policy, and a market that keeps front-running the next rescue. Records can print in this weather. Just remember why they’re printing. The story ends not when the cut arrives, but when the credibility bill does.

 

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