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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 July 1, 2025                             *

*                                                                           *

*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

================


June’s Mad Dash: Stocks at Records, Dollar in Tatters

June 2025 will go down as one of the most surreal months in recent market history. Despite a war in the Middle East, renewed trade war threats, plunging consumer confidence, and ominous signals from the bond market, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed the month at fresh all-time highs.

After the April “Liberation Day” sell-off, stocks staged an astounding rally:

·         The S&P 500 surged nearly 25% from its April lows, closing June at 6,173.07—marking an 86% gain since the bond bear market began in August 2020.

·         The Nasdaq Composite soared alongside, driven by the Magnificent 7 tech stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla), which posted average gains of over 30% since April.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) collapsed to a new three-year low, falling nearly 6% in June alone. This reflects both expectations for Fed rate cuts and concerns over America’s fiscal path.

On the geopolitical front, the month began with markets on edge over U.S.-Iran tensions that escalated into airstrikes by late June. Oil prices spiked to $77 a barrel mid-month but settled closer to $65 as fears of broader escalation faded.

Economic fundamentals didn’t justify the euphoria:

·         The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell 5.4 points to 93.0 in June—well below levels signaling economic strength.

·         The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index touched lows not seen since the early 1980s, underscoring growing household pessimism.

Despite this, Wall Street latched onto dovish signals from the Fed: futures markets now price in only a 25% chance of a July rate cut, but over 90% odds of a cut by September. Investors seem to believe bad news will guarantee easy money—and stocks have taken off accordingly.

Yet risks loom large: the extreme concentration of gains in a handful of megacap tech names, the historic divergence between stocks and bonds, and the continued erosion of the dollar all hint at instability under the market’s shiny surface.

As the first half of 2025 closes, the question remains: how long can markets ignore cracks in the economy before gravity returns?

 

Index  06/30/25  Mn Chng  Mnth %  Yr Chng  Year % 2K Chg*   2000 %

------ --------  -------  ------  -------  ------ --------  ------

Dow30  44094.77  1824.70    4.3%  1550.55    3.6% 32597.65  283.5%

Trans  15394.51   708.21    4.8%  -501.24   -3.2% 12417.31  417.1%

Utils   1054.45    13.56    1.3%    71.71    7.3%   771.09  272.1%

S&P500  6204.95   293.26    5.0%   323.32    5.5%  4735.70  322.3%

Nasdaq 20369.73  1255.96    6.6%  1058.94    5.5% 16300.42  400.6%

NYSE   20429.55   645.78    3.3%  1332.45    7.0%     N/A     N/A

Rus2000 2175.04   108.75    5.3%   -55.12   -2.5%  1670.29  330.9%

Amex    5781.32   586.94   11.3%  1095.04   23.4%  4912.58  565.5%

Val Lne11287.55   453.94    4.2%   256.35    2.3% 10261.75 1000.4%

30Yr Tr   47.70    -1.50    3.0%    -0.10    0.2%   -17.10   26.4%

Bnk Idx  139.65    12.18    9.6%    12.18    9.6%    62.65   81.4%

MSH 35  6242.88   561.65    9.9%   927.62   17.5%  5322.10  578.0%

Housing  641.36    23.11    3.7%   -46.57   -6.8%     N/A     N/A

Airline   56.36    -0.96   -1.7%   -10.69  -15.9%   -97.11  -63.3%

Retail  6846.14   285.78    4.4%   -33.46   -0.5%     N/A     N/A

           

* Change since 12/31/1999

 

Winners-Losers              19-11          20-9

Dow Industrials    Jun-30  Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg Year %

---------------    ------  ------ ------ ------ ------

Goldman Sachs      707.75  107.30  17.9% 135.13  23.6%  

Nike                71.04   10.45  17.2%  -4.63  -6.1%  

Intel               22.40    2.85  14.6%   2.35  11.7%  

IBM                294.78   35.72  13.8%  74.95  34.1%  

Caterpillar        388.21   40.18  11.5%  25.45   7.0%              

Cisco               69.38    6.34  10.1%  10.18  17.2%  

JP Morgan Chase    289.91   25.91   9.8%  50.20  20.9%  

Disney             124.01   10.97   9.7%  12.66  11.4%  

American Exprss    318.98   24.93   8.5%  22.19   7.5%  

Microsoft          497.41   37.05   8.0%  75.91  18.0%  

Amazon             219.39   14.38   7.0%   0.00   0.0%  

Chevron-Texaco     143.19    6.49   4.7%  -1.65  -1.1%  

UnitedHealth       311.97   10.06   3.3%-193.89 -38.3%  

Merck               79.16    2.32   3.0% -20.32 -20.4%  

SalesForce.com     272.69    7.32   2.8% -61.64 -18.4%  

Honeywell          232.88    6.21   2.7%   6.99   3.1%  

Minn Mining Mnf    152.24    3.89   2.6%  23.15  17.9%  

Apple              205.17    4.32   2.2% -45.25 -18.1%  

Boeing             209.53    2.21   1.1%  32.53  18.4%  

Home Depot         366.64   -1.65  -0.4% -22.35  -5.7%  

Wal-Mart            97.78   -0.94  -1.0%   7.43   8.2%  

Verizon Comm        43.27   -0.69  -1.6%   3.28   8.2%  

Johnson-Johnson    152.75   -2.46  -1.6%   8.13   5.6%  

Coca-Cola           70.75   -1.35  -1.9%   8.49  13.6%  

Visa               355.05  -10.14  -2.8%  39.01  12.3%  

Travelers          267.54   -8.16  -3.0%  26.65  11.1%  

Amgen              279.21   -8.97  -3.1%  18.57   7.1%  

Dow                 26.48   -1.26  -4.5% -13.65 -34.0%  

Procter-Gamble     159.32  -10.57  -6.2%  -8.33  -5.0%  

McDonald's         292.17  -21.68  -6.9%   2.28   0.8%  

 

 

                            Fiend's Prime-25©

                            -----------------

                                                      

Winners-Losers              15-10            18-7

    Company        Jun-30  Mn Chg   Month  Yr Chg Year %

---------------   ------- -------  ------ ------- ------

NVIDIA             157.99   22.86   16.9%   23.70  17.6%  

Meta (FB)          738.09   90.60   14.0%  152.58  26.1%  

Broadcom           275.65   33.58   13.9%   43.81  18.9%  

Netflix           1339.13  131.90   10.9%  447.81  50.2%  

JP Morgan Chase    289.91   25.91    9.8%   50.20  20.9%  

Microsoft          497.41   37.05    8.0%   75.91  18.0%  

Bank of America     47.32    3.19    7.2%    3.37   7.7%  

Amazon             219.39   14.38    7.0%    0.00   0.0%  

Eli Lilly          779.53   41.86    5.7%    7.53   1.0%  

Exxon Mobil        107.80    5.50    5.4%    0.23   0.2%  

UnitedHealth       311.97   10.06    3.3% -193.89 -38.3%  

Salesforce         272.69    7.32    2.8%  -61.64 -18.4%  

Google             177.39    4.54    2.6%  -13.05  -6.9%  

Apple Comp         205.17    4.32    2.2%  -45.25 -18.1%  

Abbvie             185.62   -0.49   -0.3%    7.92   4.5%  

Home Depot         366.64   -1.65   -0.4%  -22.35  -5.7%  

Walmart             97.78   -0.94   -1.0%    7.43   8.2%  

Johnson-Johnson    152.75   -2.46   -1.6%    8.13   5.6%  

Visa Inc.          355.05  -10.14   -2.8%   39.01  12.3%  

Berkshire Hath     485.77  -18.19   -3.6%   32.49   7.2%  

Mastercard         561.94  -23.66   -4.0%   35.37   6.7%  

Costco             989.94  -50.24   -4.8%   73.67   8.0%  

Procter-Gamble     159.32  -10.57   -6.2%   -8.33  -5.0%  

Tesla              317.66  -28.80   -8.3%  -86.18 -21.3%  

 

Prime-25©        28252.57 1634.88    6.1% 1155.37   4.3%

 

 

 

RNK      Company         (Bil)   P/E   Yield Symb      Sector

--- -----------------   ------ ------- ----- ----   ---------------

 1. NVIDIA              $3853   53.74  0.03% NVDA    Technology  

 2. Microsoft           $3696   38.44  0.64% MSFT    Technology  

 3. Apple               $3065   32.01  0.49% AAPL    Technology  

 4. Amazon              $2328   35.79  0.00% AMZN    Consumer    

 5. Google              $2144   19.78  0.45% GOOG    Communication

 6. Meta (FB)           $1854   28.79  0.27% META    Communication

 7. Broadcom            $1296  133.16  0.81% AVGO    Technology  

 8. Berkshire Hath      $1047   12.94  0.00% BRK-B   Financial   

 9. Tesla               $1023  174.54  0.00% TSLA    Consumer    

10. JP Morgan Chase      $806   14.23  1.74% JPM     Financial   

11. Walmart              $782   41.97  0.91% WMT     Consumer    

12. Eli Lilly            $739   64.58  0.72% LLY     Healthcare  

13. Visa Inc.            $688   36.12  0.64% V       Financial   

14. Oracle               $612   51.32  0.78% ORCL    Technology  

15. Netflix              $570   63.29  0.00% NFLX    Communication

16. Mastercard           $507   39.41  0.51% MA      Financial   

17. Exxon Mobil          $465   14.26  3.64% XOM     Energy      

18. Costco               $440   57.79  0.48% COST    Consumer    

19. Procter-Gamble       $373   25.29  2.56% PG      Consumer    

20. Johnson-Johnson      $368   16.97  3.25% JNJ     Healthcare  

21. Home Depot           $364   24.57  2.47% HD      Consumer    

22. Bank of America      $358   14.13  2.16% BAC     Financial   

23. Abbvie               $329   78.99  3.44% ABBV    Healthcare  

24. UnitedHealth         $284   13.04  2.69% UNH     Healthcare  

25. Salesforce           $262   42.88  0.59% CRM     Technology  

     

      Prime-25©         $28,253   31.88  0.64%                    

 

Changes for 2025:

 

NFLX, Netflix, CRM Salesforce, BAC Bank of America were added while

CVX Chevron, MRK Merck, and ADBE Adobe were  removed.

 

 

                                    Currencies

                                    ----------

                                                   

Crrncy   Jun-30  Mn Chg  Mnth %   Yr Chg  Year %  2K Chg*  2000 %

------  -------  ------  ------   ------  ------  -------  ------

Pound    137.34    2.81    2.1%    12.19    9.7%   -24.56  -15.2%

SwFrnc   126.08    4.53    3.7%    15.91   14.4%    62.61   98.6%

Euro     117.87    4.39    3.9%    14.37   13.9%    16.26   16.0%

Yen       69.40   -0.06   -0.1%     5.87    9.2%   -29.52  -29.8%

US Dlr    96.88   -2.45   -2.5%   -11.61  -10.7%    -4.54   -4.5%

               

     

                                    Commodities

                                    -----------

 Aug                                             

Cmmdty    Jun-30   Mn Chg  Mnth %   Yr Chg  Year % 2K Chng*  2000 %

------ ---------  -------  ------  -------  ------ --------  ------

Gold   $3,307.70   -$7.70   -0.2%  $590.80   21.7%$3,018.10 1042.2%

XAU       205.64    13.42    7.0%    68.46   49.9%   137.67  202.5%

Oil/Jl    $65.11    $5.32    8.9%   -$4.38   -6.3%   $39.51  154.3%

XOI      1777.77    85.71    5.1%    14.22    0.8%  1274.77  253.4%

CRB       297.28     6.85    2.4%     0.56    0.2%    92.14   44.9%

 

                                                                                                                 

                                  Foreign Markets     

                                  ---------------

                                

Exchng   Jun-30  Mnth Chg  Mnth % Year Chg  Year % 2K Chng*  2000 %

------ --------- --------  ------ --------  ------ --------  ------

TSX     26857.11   682.06    2.6%  2129.17    8.6% 18443.36  219.2%

IPC     57450.88  -390.81   -0.7%  7937.61   16.0% 50321.00  705.8%

BVSP   138854.60  1828.00    1.3% 18571.20   15.4%121762.60  712.4%

FTSE     8760.96   -11.42   -0.1%   587.94    7.2%  1830.76   26.4%

CAC-40   7665.91   -85.98   -1.1%   285.17    3.9%  1707.59   28.7%

DAX     23909.61   -87.87   -0.4%  4000.47   20.1% 16951.47  243.6%

Swiss   11921.46  -305.62   -2.5%   320.56    2.8%  4351.36   57.5%

Nikkei  40487.39  2522.29    6.6%   592.85    1.5% 21553.05  113.8%

HngSng  24072.28   782.51    3.4%  4012.33   20.0%  7110.18   41.9%

AllOrd   8773.00   112.70    1.3%   352.50    4.2%  5620.50  178.3%

 

* Change since 12/31/1999

 

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