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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 June 12, 2025                             *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Oil's 5% Jump Above $68: A Wake-Up Call for Inflation

Oil surged more than 5% on Wednesday, pushing WTI past $68 per barrel—its highest level since early April. Several key forces drove the move:

1.     Middle East tensions: The U.S. evacuated non-essential embassy staff from Iraq amid escalating concerns over Iran, injecting fresh geopolitical risk into the market.

2.     Trade optimism: Progress in U.S.–China trade talks improved demand sentiment, with expectations for stronger diesel and jet fuel usage in the second half of the year.

3.     Tighter U.S. supply: Domestic crude inventories dropped by 3.6 million barrels last week—well above expectations—bringing stockpiles nearly 8% below the five-year average.

What This Means

With oil prices up and tariffs set to kick in soon, the streak of tame inflation reports may soon end. Gasoline and freight costs could start creeping higher, and that pressure could flow downstream into consumer goods and services.

  • Inflation expectations could reaccelerate.
  • The Fed may find itself caught between soft-landing hopes and renewed cost-push inflation.

Bottom Line

This move above $68 isn't just noise—it may be an early warning. If oil pushes past $70 and holds, it could mark the start of another inflation wave, just as policymakers and investors start to let their guard down.

 

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