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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* January 1,
2026 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web
address: http://www.fiendbear.com *
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Fiend Commentary
================
2025:
The Year the Metals Market Stopped Whispering
If you only
watched the stock indices in 2025, you could be forgiven for thinking it was
just another “risk-on” year. But under the surface, precious metals delivered a
far louder message — and by December it wasn’t subtle anymore.
Gold
finished 2025 around $4,326/oz, up roughly +65%
on the year. Silver ended near $72/oz, up roughly +145%, after
printing an eye-popping intrayear record above $83/oz.
That’s not a “nice rally.” That’s a regime change — and it came with the kind
of volatility that forces even true believers to hold on with both hands.
Why this rally was so extreme in 2025
People will
argue about the “one” catalyst. But the truth is that 2025 was a rare year when
multiple long-building forces pushed in the same direction — and once price
broke through psychological ceilings, momentum did what momentum always does:
it attracted more momentum.
1) Metals
became a referendum on policy credibility, not just inflation.
When markets start believing that inflation will be “managed” with optimism and
messaging — rather than restraint and real sacrifice — gold tends to behave
less like a commodity and more like a vote. Not a vote for panic, necessarily.
A vote for doubt. 2025 looked like a year where investors increasingly
priced in that policy would stay easier than the old rulebook would justify.
2) Silver
didn’t just ride gold’s coattails — it found its own industrial jet fuel.
Silver is both precious and industrial, which means it can lag for long
periods… and then abruptly turn into a scarcity story. In 2025, silver acted
like a market trying to front-run supply tightness and strategic stockpiling
fears at the same time that industrial demand stayed
intense. When that narrative catches, silver doesn’t drift higher — it tends to
gap higher, then punish late chasers with violent pullbacks, then rip
again.
3) The
“quiet” metals joined the party — confirming it wasn’t only a gold story.
One of the most important tells in 2025: the strength spread beyond
gold/silver. Platinum and palladium also posted huge gains, and
industrial metals like copper had a standout year as well. When a whole
complex moves, it often signals something bigger than a single trade — it can
reflect a broader repricing of real assets, supply chains, and the cost of
capital.
4) The
end-of-year whipsaw wasn’t a contradiction — it was a feature.
The late-December air pocket (especially in silver) looked dramatic, but it
wasn’t mysterious: thin holiday liquidity, crowded positioning, and higher
margin requirements are exactly the ingredients that turn an uptrend into a
rodeo for a few sessions. Big bull markets don’t end volatility — they manufacture
it.
Miners: the
forgotten “leverage trade” that finally woke up
If 2025 had
a “tell” that the metals move was real, it was the mining equities.
Gold miners
didn’t simply participate — they went parabolic. Major gold-miner
exposure posted triple-digit gains on the year, and junior miners were even
more explosive. Silver-miner funds were among the top-performing
ETFs in the entire market.
That matters
because miners are where disbelief tends to show up first. When the crowd
thinks a metal move is temporary, miners lag. When the crowd starts believing
the move has legs, miners behave like a spring that was compressed for years.
A clean way
to think about 2026: three signposts, not slogans
No “stocks
up unless they go down” nonsense. Here are three concrete signposts that will
tell you a lot about how 2026 may develop:
Signpost #1:
Does silver hold a higher floor after the fireworks?
Silver’s job in 2026 is not to avoid pullbacks — pullbacks are guaranteed. The
real question is whether the next deep shakeout stops at a level that would
have sounded ridiculous a year ago. If silver starts building support well
above former “ceiling” prices, that’s how new long cycles typically behave.
Signpost #2:
Do bond yields and gold rise together, or do they diverge?
Gold can rally on falling yields, rising yields, or both — but the reason
matters. If yields rise because inflation expectations re-ignite and fiscal
credibility frays, gold can remain strong even with
higher rates. If yields rise because real growth is
ripping and policy is credibly tight, gold often has a harder time. Watch the why,
not just the number.
Signpost #3:
Does the next growth scare produce “deflation first,” then “printing later”?
Many crises follow a familiar rhythm: risk assets break, credit tightens,
something deflationary snaps — and only then does policy respond with
liquidity. If that pattern repeats, gold often stabilizes sooner than most
assets, while silver (because it’s part industrial, part monetary) can be more
chaotic. In other words: gold may act like the lifeboat; silver may act like
the speedboat.
A grounded
2026 “range” call
Here’s the
honest takeaway after a year like 2025:
Bottom line: 2025 was not merely a great year for metals — it was a year
where metals started acting like a
headline, not a footnote. If 2026 brings either
(a) renewed inflation anxiety, (b) another credibility wobble
in bonds/currencies, or (c) a growth scare that forces the next liquidity wave,
the metal story probably isn’t finished. But after a year like this, the
market’s tuition bill will be paid in volatility.
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