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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                December 18, 2025                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Silver Is Yelling What the Fed Won’t Say

We’re getting a rare moment of clarity from markets that usually speak in riddles. Silver is still acting like it’s late to the party and determined to make up for lost time, pushing around the mid‑$60s and refusing to calm down. Gold is holding near the top of its range and still trying to push cleanly through the $4,400 area. You don’t see that kind of behavior unless investors are worried about something bigger than the next headline.

Here’s what it feels like the metals market is “pricing in,” in plain English:

1.     The Fed is easing because the economy is slowing, not because inflation is beaten.

2.     Inflation isn’t dead, it’s just not screaming every day—yet.

3.     The next response to trouble will still be “more liquidity,” even if officials avoid the word “QE.”

 

That’s why silver is the star right now. Gold is the steady insurance policy. Silver is the one that starts pounding the table when people feel the rules are changing. It’s part “store of value,” part “industrial metal,” and it tends to move when investors sense we’re sliding into a world where money is easier to create than confidence.

At the same time, the bond market is sending a warning that’s easy to miss. Even with rate cuts and talk of ending QT, long-term yields have been creeping higher again. That matters because it tells you investors want extra interest to lend money for ten years. In other words, the market is saying: “We’ll lend, but we don’t fully trust the long-term plan.” When yields rise and metals rise together, it’s usually not “growth optimism.” It’s more like a credibility bill coming due.

Now add the “data backlog” problem. We’ve been flying without the usual instruments for weeks, and as reports start to trickle back in, the odds of a surprise rise. If the job market prints show a real slowdown, the market will immediately start pushing the Fed toward more cuts in 2026. But if inflation stays stubborn near the 3% neighborhood while the Fed cuts anyway, that’s exactly the kind of mix that keeps hard assets bid.

So what happens next?

My call: metals remain the leadership trade into year-end, with silver behaving like the “thermometer” for policy credibility. A move toward $70 silver is not far‑fetched if the Fed keeps leaning dovish and the bond market doesn’t break. Gold pushing into the mid‑$4,000s becomes more likely if investors conclude that “2%” is an old slogan, not a real destination.

The big risk is the one silver always brings: sharp pullbacks. If long-term yields jump hard, or the dollar catches a strong bid, silver can drop fast even in a bull market. But a fast drop wouldn’t disprove the trend—it would be the market’s way of shaking out the passengers.

What to watch (and come back tomorrow for):

  • Does gold finally close clearly above the $4,400 zone?
  • Does silver hold the mid‑$60s without a nasty reversal?
  • Do long-term yields stay contained—or do they start running as if the bond market is losing patience?
  • Do the “backlogged” economic reports confirm slowdown… or surprise to the upside?

Bottom line: the Fed can cut. The Fed can promise. But right now, silver is voting—and it’s voting for a world where easy money is back, inflation isn’t fully tamed, and the real fight is about trust.

 

 

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