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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                November 13, 2025                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Five Signposts to 2026

Silver bounced back to ~$53 and gold holds north of $4,000 while the Dow grinds at records. That twin-rally says the market expects help—and doubts it will be free. With Washington reopened, the data backlog starts to clear, so this isn’t just another “cut and carry on” week. It’s a pivot to what 2026 might actually look like.

 

1) Policy sequencing
QT’s end is the first mile marker. If the next wobble brings “balance-sheet flexibility,” the market will be trading how much support, not if. That path favors hard assets and index leaders but keeps pressure on the long end of the curve.

 

2) Earnings vs. AI capex
The story stock era meets the invoice. If 2025–26 guidance shows margins bending to AI spend and financing costs, multiples will have to do the adjusting—even with easier policy.

 

3) Credit lag
Delinquencies and charge-offs usually show up last. If the post-shutdown numbers reveal a creep from subprime niches into mainstream credit, the “buy-the-dip” muscle memory will fade fast.

 

4) Dollar path
A softer dollar extends the metals bid and props overseas earnings; a snapback tempers commodities and forces a rerate in cyclicals. Watch the response to each big data release as the backlog hits.

 

5) Silver’s regime test
Tagging $50 was a headline. Holding it is the thesis. Sustained closes above $50 with only shallow pullbacks say this isn’t a blow-off; it’s a new price zone. If the curve stays tight (spot leading), the squeeze can reappear in bursts.

 

My 2026 map (probabilities, not promises)

 

  • Stagflationary easing (~45%): Inflation sticks above target, policy stays accommodative, metals lead; equities advance but breadth stays patchy.
  • Growth scare → QE-lite (~30%): Data disappoints in waves; stocks correct, the Fed leans into balance-sheet support; metals volatile but higher on balance.
  • Disinflation accident (~25%): A credit shock drives real yields up briefly and risk off; after policy response, metals regain leadership from a higher floor.

 

Bottom line: Today’s bounce in silver and resilience in gold aren’t sideshows to fresh equity highs; they’re the tell. If 2026 is an era of bigger debts and bigger interventions, hard money keeps a seat at the table—and maybe the gavel.

 

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