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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                December 10, 2025                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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The Cut That Didn’t Soothe

No surprise: the Fed cut a quarter-point to 3.50%–3.75%. The surprise was the tone. Powell and the dot plot both hinted at a pause next month, and markets now lean that way. Translation: a cut in December, but no green light for January.

 

Meanwhile the 10-year won’t play along. After dipping, it’s treating ~4.0% as support and keeps poking 4.10–4.15%. That’s a tell: term premium and credibility fears are doing more work than a 25-bp trim can undo. When the back end rises with rate cuts, stocks can cheer for a day—but the bill lands somewhere. Lately it’s landing in metals.

 

On that front, silver pushed toward $63 after setting new records this week, and gold is steady near highs. You don’t need trader jargon to read that: investors want hard collateral while the policy mix stays easier than inflation.

 

About the “$40B in mortgages a month” question: what the Fed actually said is that QT is ending and principal from agency MBS will be reinvested into T-bills, not back into new mortgages. Some desks now expect sizeable bill purchases to keep reserves ample (one estimate: ~$60B/month of bills). That feels like liquidity support, even if officials avoid the “QE” label.

 

Where this leaves us

  • Policy: One cut delivered, but the bar for more is higher. January looks like a hold unless the data crack.
  • Rates: If the 10-year breaks above ~4.15%, a run at 4.25–4.50% is on the table—tough for high-duration stocks, less tough for miners.
  • Metals: Strength without drama is the story. As long as real policy rates drift negative and QT stays over, dips look like resets, not endings.
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What I’ll watch into the weekend

1.     Auction tone: clean sales = calm curve; sloppy tails revive the bond-market veto.

2.     Silver’s close, not the spike: a firm settle near the high-$50s keeps $60+ in play.

3.     January odds: if pause odds keep rising, expect more two-way chop in equities and a sturdier floor in metals.

Bottom line: The Fed cut, but the long end didn’t relax and silver noticed. If yields keep nudging up while QT ends and bill buying begins, the “balancing act” will look more like a seesaw—with metals on the high side.

 

 

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