*****************************************************************************
* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT *
* June 19, 2025 *
* *
* e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com *
* web address: http://www.fiendbear.com *
*****************************************************************************
Fiend Commentary
================
Powell’s Quiet Warning
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome
Powell didn’t exactly sound the alarm on Wednesday—but he didn’t need to. In
his measured tone, Powell laid out a sobering outlook for the second half of
2025: slowing growth, persistent inflation pressures, and little room for
error.
While markets didn’t crash on
the news, they didn’t rally either. Stocks drifted lower, oil stayed volatile,
and the dollar remained weak. But the subtext of Powell’s remarks was clear:
the so-called “soft landing” is looking less and less likely.
He acknowledged that
inflation progress has stalled in recent months, with core prices proving
sticky even as energy costs fluctuate. More notably, he hinted that credit
conditions are tightening and that business investment may slow heading into Q3
and Q4.
For investors, this was a
reality check. After months of brushing off risks—from geopolitics to debt
concerns—the Fed is now subtly signaling that the window for an economic
rebound may be closing.
The bond market seems to get
it. Yields ticked up again on Wednesday, with the 10-year Treasury closing near
its recent highs. And yet, equity markets remain reluctant to accept the new
narrative. It’s almost as if Wall Street believes Powell doesn’t mean what he
says.
But the Fed’s track record
shows otherwise. Powell rarely exaggerates—and when he starts sounding
cautious, it's worth paying attention.
Weekly Market Summary Page
[Return to the Fiend's SuperBear Page]