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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                November 6, 2025                           *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Cut Meets Gravity

The shutdown drags into a record stretch and the 10-year is back above ~4.15%—days after a rate cut. That’s the tell. Short rates moved, but financial conditions didn’t obediently follow. Term premium, supply, and nerves are doing more work than 25 bps can undo.

Wall Street still wants the soft-landing script: cuts now, calm later. But a higher long end says the transmission is jammed. If funding costs refuse to ease, multiples carry more weight, buybacks buy less, and every guidance call has to work harder. Metals have cooled from their sprint, not their story. Insurance doesn’t need a new high every day to stay in demand.

The shutdown keeps the dashboard dark. Two months of missing jobs reports leave policy flying by feel and price doing the signaling. Right now, price says “easier policy, tougher tape.”

What to watch next

  • Auctions vs. term premium: A sloppy bid tail pushes long yields higher—again.
  • Breadth and small caps: New highs without participation are branding, not conviction.
  • Credit tone: If spreads finally widen, the “everything’s fine” narrative gets a reality check.
  • Fed sequencing: QT’s finish line is a tailwind; any hint of balance-sheet “flexibility” would keep a floor under hedges.

Bottom line: A cut without looser conditions is a trick, not a treat. Until the long end relents—or the data return with real relief—assume the market is climbing with a heavier pack.

    

 

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