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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* October 23,
2025 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web
address: http://www.fiendbear.com *
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Fiend Commentary
================
Data
blackout, QT endgame, metals reprice risk.
Two things shifted this week. First, the gold run graduated from a quiet
credibility bid to a high-volatility phase—records, sharp reversals, and
still-firm upside targets. Second, the silver squeeze morphed: spot premiums
cooled as fresh metal hit London, but the bigger story—investors paying up for
now—hasn’t vanished so much as rotated. In a market flying with a dimmed
dashboard, price is policy.
The backdrop
hasn’t grown friendlier to restraint. The Fed is inching toward ending QT, cuts
remain teed up, and the shutdown keeps key releases in the dark. Equities keep
leaning into the soft-landing script, but the metals tape keeps asking what
happens when the bill for easy money comes due. That’s why pullbacks in gold
and silver look like position resets, not verdicts.
What to
watch today:
Real yields
vs. multiples. A steady 10-year under 4% preserves the equity cushion; a
snapback compresses both stocks and metals—fast.
Silver’s
curve. If spot/futures reconverge while price holds >$50, it signals orderly
tightness rather than panic scarcity.
Policy tone.
Any hint that QT stops soon while cuts proceed keeps the “insurance” bid alive.
China tape
risk. Each tariff headline has added a tailwind to havens; don’t treat calm as
a regime change.
Bottom line:
This isn’t a single-asset story; it’s a liquidity regime. As
long as QT’s finish line approaches and the data spigot sputters, expect
metals to trade leadership on bad days and confirmation on good ones.
Volatility is not a bug here—it’s the feature telling you where the pressure
really sits.
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