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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* May 4,
2026 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web address:
http://www.fiendbear.com
*
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Fiend Commentary
================
Wall Street
has decided that the war is no longer a reason to stay cautious. It may still
be a reason to hedge, but not to stop buying.
That is the
clearest way to read Friday’s action and Monday’s setup. The S&P 500
closed at another record, 7,230.12, and the Nasdaq finished above 25,000
for the first time, at 25,114.44. The Dow lagged and closed at 49,499.27,
still below the 50,000 milestone that looked inevitable only weeks ago. In
other words, the market is still bullish — but it is bullish in a very specific
way: it is chasing growth and momentum, not broadly embracing everything.
What makes
that so strange is the backdrop.
The war is
not over. Oil is not cheap. The Strait is not normal. And yet the market is
acting as if all of those are temporary annoyances rather than defining
features of the macro landscape.
That is why
I think “renting peace” is the right phrase. Investors are not buying a durable
settlement. They are renting a period of calm just long enough to justify
owning the same high-beta winners again.
The oil
market tells the truth better than the stock market does. Even after some
moderation, Brent was still around $107–108 and WTI around $101–102
early Monday. That is nowhere near a clean normalization. That is still a
meaningful energy shock by historical standards. The fact that equities can
rally while crude sits there tells you the market is not pricing the present.
It is pricing the future it wants: reopened shipping, falling oil, and
eventually easier policy.
The problem
is that the future has not been delivered yet.
And that
brings us to the uncomfortable part: if the market is this strong now, what
exactly is it seeing?
It is
clearly not seeing lower interest rates today. The Fed has not turned dovish in
any clean way, and Reuters reported only a gradual pull-forward of easing hopes
tied to weaker growth, not a clear signal that cuts are around the corner. The
rally also cannot be explained by low inflation confidence, because inflation
pressure tied to energy and tariffs remains very much alive. Instead, what the
market seems to be seeing is a more dangerous mix:
That is not
“all clear.” That is “we’ll deal with the consequences later.”
The dollar’s
behavior supports that reading. It hasn’t behaved like a currency blessed with
perfect confidence. It has been softer, which fits the idea that money is still
uncomfortable with the long-run policy mix even as stocks levitate. The quiet
message from the currency market is that this is not a serene boom. It is a
liquidity-fueled, narrative-heavy rally in a world where too many important
things are unresolved.
So if the
war really did end soon, would that be even more bullish?
Probably,
yes — in the short run.
A real
reopening of the Strait, visible normalization in shipping, and a clear drop in
oil would likely add fuel to the same trade that is already working: long tech,
long U.S. equities, short fear. That could absolutely push the S&P and
Nasdaq to even higher records.
But that is
also what makes the setup fragile. If markets are already pricing the happy
ending before it exists, then the risk is not that good news is ignored. The
risk is that not enough good news arrives to justify the price paid in
advance.
That’s why
the Dow’s lag matters more than it looks. The rally is real, but it is not
unanimous. It is being led by the same kind of leadership that thrives when
people stop caring about valuation and start caring about not being left
behind.
That can
last longer than skeptics think.
But it
rarely ends quietly.
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