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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                December 1, 2025                           *

*                                                                           *

*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

================

November Wrap: Stocks Cheer, Metals Roar, Crypto Wilts

November ended with a split-screen: equities finished the final week strong, but the month’s real story was in hard assets. Gold logged another monthly gain and silver set fresh records, dragging miners higher and pulling center-stage attention from a broader public that had mostly been watching AI tickers. By contrast, bitcoin sagged through the month and never joined the “inflation-hedge” party.

Equities: The late-month rebound was real—but uneven. The S&P 500 and Dow finished November slightly positive, salvaged by a powerful Thanksgiving week. The Nasdaq fell for the month, a tell that the AI complex can wobble even while the tape rallies elsewhere. Breadth improved into month-end but remains thinner than headline highs imply.

Metals & miners: Gold advanced again and silver exploded—up mid-teens for the month and printing new all-time highs into the final sessions. The move wasn’t just momentum; it was a “credibility trade”: rising odds of a December cut alongside still-sticky inflation pushed investors toward hard collateral. Miners followed—gold-miner benchmarks now show triple-digit year-to-date gains as leverage to metal prices finally mattered more than cost worries.

Crypto: Bitcoin’s November was weak, breaking successive supports and sliding to multi-month lows while gold/silver surged. If the market believed a dovish Fed alone lifted all “inflation hedges,” crypto would have confirmed it. It didn’t. The message: liquidity hopes ≠ universal risk appetite.

What that sets up for December

  • Base case: Metals make new closing highs; miners stay bid; stocks grind but lag metals. The path of least resistance is another month of “policy relief with a credibility tax,” which favors ounces over narratives.
  • Equity leadership: Expect rotation, not melt-up—cyclicals/financials can carry some weight, but mega-cap tech underperforms on capex and valuation gravity.
  • Rates: As long as the 10-year stays contained, equities can mark time; a backup in real yields will hit high-duration stocks first, metals second.
  • Crypto: Sideways-to-lower as long as real yields don’t collapse and risk appetite remains selective.

Bottom line: November’s tell is clear—metals led for fundamental reasons, not vibes. If December delivers a cut while inflation sits ~3% and QT winds down, hard assets should keep the initiative. Equities can still finish the year green—but don’t expect AI-style euphoria to carry the whole market.

 

 

Index  11/28/25  Mn Chng  Mnth %  Yr Chng  Year % 2K Chg*   2000 %

------ --------  -------  ------  -------  ------ --------  ------

Dow30  47716.42   153.55    0.3%  5172.20   12.2% 36219.30  315.0%

Trans  16585.81   695.64    4.4%   690.06    4.3% 13608.61  457.1%

Utils   1128.32    16.75    1.5%   145.58   14.8%   844.96  298.2%

S&P500  6849.09     8.89    0.1%   967.46   16.4%  5379.84  366.2%

Nasdaq 23365.69  -359.27   -1.5%  4054.90   21.0% 19296.38  474.2%

NYSE   21824.67   365.09    1.7%  2727.57   14.3%     N/A     N/A

Rus2000 2500.43    21.05    0.8%   270.27   12.1%  1995.68  395.4%

Amex    7469.97   541.00    7.8%  2783.69   59.4%  6601.23  759.9%

Val Lne12181.17   197.44    1.6%  1149.97   10.4% 11155.37 1087.5%

30Yr Tr   46.60    -0.10    0.2%    -1.20    2.5%   -18.20   28.1%

Bnk Idx  154.14     4.32    2.9%    26.67   20.9%    77.14  100.2%

MSH 35  7274.69  -399.95   -5.2%  1959.43   36.9%  6353.91  690.1%

Housing  702.97    14.39    2.1%    15.04    2.2%     N/A     N/A

Airline   64.93     3.50    5.7%    -2.12   -3.2%   -88.54  -57.7%

Retail  7314.27  -216.72   -2.9%   434.67    6.3%     N/A     N/A

         

* Change since 12/31/1999

 

Winners-Losers              18-12          22-8

Dow Industrials    Nov-28  Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg Year %

---------------    ------  ------ ------ ------ ------

Merck              104.83   18.85  21.9%   5.35   5.4%  

Amgen              345.46   47.03  15.8%  91.24  35.9%  

Johnson-Johnson    206.92   18.05   9.6%  65.70  46.5%  

Wal-Mart           110.51    9.33   9.2%  20.83  23.2%  

Travelers          292.86   24.24   9.0%  55.80  23.5%              

Coca-Cola           73.12    4.22   6.1%  12.22  20.1%  

Cisco               76.94    3.83   5.2%  19.23  33.3%  

Goldman Sachs      826.04   36.67   4.6% 262.09  46.5%  

McDonald's         311.82   13.39   4.5%  26.84   9.4%  

Verizon Comm        41.11    1.37   3.4%   3.70   9.9%  

Minn Mining Mnf    172.05    5.55   3.3%  44.81  35.2%  

Apple              278.85    8.48   3.1%  29.32  11.8%  

Intel               40.56    0.57   1.4%  20.51 102.3%  

American Exprss    365.27    4.54   1.3%  71.64  24.4%  

JP Morgan Chase    313.08    1.96   0.6%  78.34  33.4%  

IBM                308.58    1.17   0.4%  93.11  43.2%  

Nike                64.63    0.04   0.1%  -9.78 -13.1%  

Dow                 23.85    0.00   0.0% -14.04 -37.1%  

Caterpillar        575.76   -1.50  -0.3% 218.40  61.1%  

Procter-Gamble     148.16   -2.21  -1.5% -15.17  -9.3%  

Visa               334.44   -6.30  -1.8%  20.01   6.4%  

UnitedHealth       329.77  -11.79  -3.5%-167.25 -33.7%  

Chevron-Texaco     151.13   -6.59  -4.2%  11.16   8.0%  

Amazon             233.22  -11.00  -4.5%  13.83   6.3%  

Honeywell          192.19   -9.14  -4.5% -17.41  -8.3%  

Microsoft          492.01  -25.80  -5.0%  72.81  17.4%  

Home Depot         356.92  -22.67  -6.0% -25.06  -6.6%  

Boeing             189.00  -12.02  -6.0%  12.00   6.8%  

Disney             104.47   -8.15  -7.2%  -6.41  -5.8%  

SalesForce.com     230.54  -29.87 -11.5%-102.16 -30.7%  

 

 

                            Fiend's Prime-25©

                            -----------------

                                                      

Winners-Losers               12-13            21-4

    Company        Nov-28   Mn Chg   Month  Yr Chg Year %

---------------   -------  -------  ------ ------- ------

Oracle             201.95   -60.66  -23.1%   36.95  22.4%  

NVIDIA             177.00   -25.49  -12.6%   42.74  31.8%  

Salesforce         230.54   -29.87  -11.5% -102.16 -30.7%  

Home Depot         356.92   -22.67   -6.0%  -25.06  -6.6%  

Tesla              430.17   -26.39   -5.8%   26.33   6.5%  

Microsoft          492.01   -25.80   -5.0%   72.81  17.4%  

Amazon             233.22   -11.00   -4.5%   13.83   6.3%  

Netflix            107.58    -4.31   -3.9%   18.45  20.7%  

UnitedHealth       329.77   -11.79   -3.5% -167.25 -33.7%  

Visa Inc.          334.44    -6.30   -1.8%   20.01   6.4%  

Procter-Gamble     148.16    -2.21   -1.5%  -15.17  -9.3%  

Mastercard         550.53    -1.46   -0.3%   26.97   5.2%  

Meta (FB)          647.95    -0.40   -0.1%   63.80  10.9%  

Costco             913.59     2.14    0.2%    2.08   0.2%  

Bank of America     53.65     0.20    0.4%   10.47  24.2%  

JP Morgan Chase    313.08     1.96    0.6%   78.34  33.4%  

Exxon Mobil        115.92     1.56    1.4%   11.25  10.7%  

Apple Comp         278.85     8.48    3.1%   29.32  11.8%  

Abbvie             227.70     9.66    4.4%   56.00  32.6%  

Berkshire Hath     513.81    36.27    7.6%   60.53  13.4%  

Broadcom           402.96    33.33    9.0%  172.76  75.0%  

Walmart            110.51     9.33    9.2%   20.83  23.2%  

Johnson-Johnson    206.92    18.05    9.6%   65.70  46.5%  

Google             320.12    38.30   13.6%  130.29  68.6%  

Eli Lilly         1075.47   212.61   24.6%  308.06  40.1%

 

Prime-25©        32837.28  -111.50   -0.3% 5924.20  22.0%

 

 

RNK      Company         (Bil)   P/E   Yield Symb      Sector

--- -----------------   ------ ------- ----- ----   ---------------

 1. NVIDIA              $4310   60.20  0.02% NVDA    Technology  

 2. Apple               $4144   43.50  0.37% AAPL    Technology  

 3. Google              $3869   35.69  0.26% GOOG    Communication

 4. Microsoft           $3656   38.02  0.67% MSFT    Technology  

 5. Amazon              $2486   38.05  0.00% AMZN    Consumer    

 6. Broadcom            $1902  194.67  0.59% AVGO    Technology  

 7. Meta (FB)           $1628   25.27  0.32% META    Communication

 8. Tesla               $1385  236.36  0.00% TSLA    Consumer    

 9. Berkshire Hath      $1107   13.69  0.00% BRK-B   Financial   

10. Eli Lilly           $1018   89.10  0.54% LLY     Healthcare  

11. Walmart              $881   47.43  0.82% WMT     Consumer    

12. JP Morgan Chase      $861   15.37  1.77% JPM     Financial   

13. Visa Inc.            $648   34.02  0.71% V       Financial   

14. Oracle               $574   47.41  0.94% ORCL    Technology  

15. Johnson-Johnson      $499   22.99  2.46% JNJ     Healthcare  

16. Mastercard           $495   38.61  0.55% MA      Financial   

17. Exxon Mobil          $494   15.33  3.42% XOM     Energy      

18. Netflix              $456   45.01  0.00% NFLX    Communication

19. Costco               $405   53.33  0.54% COST    Consumer    

20. Abbvie               $403   96.89  2.88% ABBV    Healthcare  

21. Bank of America      $398   16.01  1.98% BAC     Financial   

22. Home Depot           $355   23.92  2.56% HD      Consumer    

23. Procter-Gamble       $347   23.52  2.79% PG      Consumer    

24. UnitedHealth         $298   13.79  2.61% UNH     Healthcare  

25. Salesforce           $220   36.25  0.72% CRM     Technology  

    

     Prime-25©         $32,837   37.08  0.57%                    

 

Changes for 2025:

 

NFLX, Netflix, CRM Salesforce, BAC Bank of America were added while

CVX Chevron, MRK Merck, and ADBE Adobe were  removed.

 

 

                                    Currencies

                                    ----------

                                                   

Crrncy   Nov-28  Mn Chg  Mnth %   Yr Chg  Year %  2K Chg*  2000 %

------  -------  ------  ------   ------  ------  -------  ------

Pound    132.35    0.84    0.6%     7.20    5.8%   -29.55  -18.3%

SwFrnc   124.42    0.15    0.1%    14.25   12.9%    60.95   96.0%

Euro     115.98    0.61    0.5%    12.48   12.1%    14.37   14.1%

Yen       64.03   -0.88   -1.4%     0.50    0.8%   -34.89  -35.3%

US Dlr    99.46   -0.34   -0.3%    -9.03   -8.3%    -1.96   -1.9%

               

    

                                    Commodities

                                    -----------

 Dec                                             

Cmmdty    Nov-28   Mn Chg  Mnth %   Yr Chg  Year % 2K Chng*  2000 %

------ ---------  -------  ------  -------  ------ --------  ------

Gold   $4,218.30  $221.80    5.5%$1,451.40   52.5%$3,928.70 1356.6%

XAU       324.59    44.92   16.1%   187.41  136.6%   256.62  377.5%

Oil       $58.55   -$2.05   -3.4%   -$9.33  -13.7%   $32.95  128.7%

XOI      1916.42    38.21    2.0%   152.87    8.7%  1413.42  281.0%

CRB       301.49    -1.05   -0.3%     4.77    1.6%    96.35   47.0%

 

                                                                                          

                                  Foreign Markets       

                                  ---------------

                                 

Exchng   Nov-28  Mnth Chg  Mnth % Year Chg  Year % 2K Chng*  2000 %

------ --------- --------  ------ --------  ------ --------  ------

TSX     31382.78  1122.04    3.7%  6654.84   26.9% 22969.03  273.0%

IPC     63596.78   827.60    1.3% 14083.51   28.4% 56466.90  792.0%

BVSP   159072.10  9531.70    6.4% 38788.70   32.2%141980.10  830.7%

FTSE     9720.51     3.26    0.0%  1547.49   18.9%  2790.31   40.3%

CAC-40   8122.71     1.64    0.0%   741.97   10.1%  2164.39   36.3%

DAX     23836.79  -121.51   -0.5%  3927.65   19.7% 16878.65  242.6%

Swiss   12833.96   599.46    4.9%  1233.06   10.6%  5263.86   69.5%

Nikkei  50253.91 -2157.43   -4.1% 10359.37   26.0% 31319.57  165.4%

HngSng  25858.89   -47.76   -0.2%  5798.94   28.9%  8896.79   52.5%

AllOrd   8918.70  -259.30   -2.8%   498.20    5.9%  5766.20  182.9%

 

* Change since 12/31/1999

 

 

 

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