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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 July 7, 2025                              *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Bullish Euphoria Returns—But for How Long?

Markets are entering the new week with optimism after the signing of the much-anticipated “Big Beautiful Bill” over the weekend—a move cheered by traders hoping for renewed government spending and economic momentum. However, fresh threats of tariffs—largely seen as bluster with little immediate bite—are also adding a layer of geopolitical noise.

Despite these crosscurrents, investor sentiment has flipped quickly back to extreme bullishness. Stocks are near record highs, and volatility indicators remain deeply subdued. Yet beneath the surface, risks are building.

The market now appears priced for perfection, fully baking in multiple rate cuts in 2025. But with this week’s CPI and PPI reports looming, any hint of re-accelerating inflation could shatter those expectations and send yields—and nerves—higher.

After all, the Fed’s credibility is already on thin ice. A stubborn inflation print could slam the door on cuts entirely, forcing traders to confront the uncomfortable possibility of higher-for-longer rates.

As bulls celebrate the Big Beautiful Bill, they may be ignoring the inflation iceberg dead ahead.

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