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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                November 17, 2025                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Numbers Return, Excuses End

The shutdown is over, the lights are back on, and so is the burden of proof. For weeks, markets traded the promise of easier policy and the comfort of no new numbers. Now the backlog starts to hit—and the tape has to live with data again.

Three things frame the week:

 

1) Proof vs. Pricing.
Equities sit at records, metals are back on the front foot, and futures still price a friendly Fed. That’s the pricing. The proof arrives as delayed releases land in clumps. If the labor and inflation prints come in weak-but-manageable, the “ease now, worry later” story survives. If they arrive ugly—or hot where they shouldn’t—positioning will have to move, not just the rhetoric.

2) Policy sequencing, not soundbites.
A single cut doesn’t guarantee looser financial conditions; the long end keeps score. Ending QT is a tailwind, but it isn’t a blank check. If bond supply and term premium push yields higher even with cuts, multiples lose oxygen and dips stop feeling like bargains.

3) Sugar vs. substance.
Talk of rebates and other fiscal sweeteners is the candy bowl by the door—great for a quick hit, bad for the long-term diet when inflation is creeping. That’s why hard assets rally alongside stocks: one side buys relief, the other buys the cost of relief.

Trading map:

  • Equities: Records need participation, not just a few engines. Watch breadth more than headlines.
  • Metals: The job isn’t tagging round numbers; it’s holding them. Calm trade above the breakout lines keeps the insurance bid intact.
  • Rates: The 10-year is the referee. If it drifts higher into the data, risk assets will hear it before anyone says it.

Bottom line: With the data spigot open again, narrative time is over. If the numbers match the promises, the rally can coast. If they don’t, the market will revise the story—fast.

 

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