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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                November 10, 2025                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Shutdown Ends, Risk Reboots

Washington flipped the lights back on Sunday night and markets punched the gas. Futures are green, bitcoin’s bid returned, bonds are sinking, and the metals snapped back—gold back solidly above $4,000, silver near $50. After a month of flying blind, the message is simple: business as usual is back—and so is risk-taking.

Two forces now collide. First, a fresh fiscal impulse: headlines about a tariff rebate add to already loose conditions even as inflation creeps back above 3%. That’s politically convenient into 2026—but it’s inflationary at the margin and pushes more of the bill onto the long end. Second, the data flood resumes. With two months of releases dammed up by the shutdown, the first trickle this week can reset the narrative in a single morning.

Here’s the uncomfortable setup: if those delayed prints reveal ugly labor or growth, the Fed’s hand could be forced—think intra-meeting rhetoric, even emergency action if needed. But every new dollop of stimulus (rebates, cuts, QT ending) arrives on top of a $38T deficit and a term premium that already shrugs at small moves. That’s how you get equities up, metals firm, and yields rising in the same breath.

What to watch now

  • The calendar shock: First releases out of the backlog (jobs revisions, claims, sales) will carry outsized weight after the blackout. One bad number could flip “steady cuts” into “faster cuts” talk—and revive QE chatter.
  • The long end, not the Fed funds rate: If the 10-year keeps backing up despite the cut, multiples feel it and “risk-on” loses altitude faster than it gained it.
  • Breadth vs. brand: New highs are easier with everything “on.” Durable rallies need participation, not just a few engines.
  • Metals’ behavior at the lines: Holding $4,000 gold / $50 silver without drama says the insurance bid survived the shakeout.

Bottom line: The shutdown is over, but the contradictions aren’t. A stimulative rebate into re-accelerating inflation, a reopened data pipe that could embarrass the “soft-landing” script, and a bond market that’s already pricing the tab—that’s the mix. Enjoy the relief rally. The real test starts when the numbers hit the tape.

 

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