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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 June 23, 2025                             *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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After the Strike — Markets Take a Breath

U.S. forces bombed Iranian nuclear facilities late Saturday night in what may prove to be the most consequential foreign policy move of the year. Oil surged in early electronic trading Sunday but has since retreated, with Brent crude now hovering just above $75 per barrel.

 

Stocks, meanwhile, are holding steady. Futures opened flat Monday morning, showing none of the panic one might expect after a direct U.S. military strike on a sovereign nation.

 

Why the calm?

 

There are signs that Iran may be looking for an off-ramp. So far, Tehran’s response has been limited to rhetoric and posturing. No direct counterattacks have occurred, and oil markets—usually the first to react—seem to be pricing in a contained conflict rather than a spiraling regional war.

 

That may prove optimistic. But for now, markets are treating the weekend's airstrikes as a culmination, not an opening salvo.

 

Gold, which recently tested the $3,500 level, is taking a breather. Silver, which briefly broke $37 last week, has also pulled back but remains elevated. These are not signs of panic, but rather of hedging—traders aren’t rushing for the exits, but they aren’t blind to the risks either.

 

The bigger question now is whether Iran chooses to escalate, whether through proxies or direct action. If not, the worst may already be priced in. But if they do respond with force—especially against U.S. assets or allies—markets will not be so composed.

 

Final Thought:

The Monday calm may not last, but it does reveal how deeply markets are conditioned to brush off risk. Faith in containment—whether military, diplomatic, or economic—remains high. Just don’t mistake calm for resolution.

 

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