*****************************************************************************
* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* December 15,
2025 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web
address: http://www.fiendbear.com *
*****************************************************************************
Fiend Commentary
================
Silver and
gold are running again overnight, and the setup into year-end is about as
clear—and as risky—as it gets. The Fed is easing into inflation that still
isn’t at 2%, real policy rates are drifting negative,
and liquidity is finding its way into hard assets first. That mix usually lifts
a lot of boats for a little while.
The danger
is what happens when a trade feels obvious. Crowded momentum can turn on a
dime. For now, though, the path of least resistance still points higher. If
this continues, the “outside bets” don’t look outlandish: $70 silver and
$4,500 gold before the calendar flips are possible, not promised.
Three things
matter this week:
1.
The close, not the spike. Calm finishes are more important than intraday fireworks.
If silver keeps closing in the high-50s and gold above $4,000,
the market is accepting the move, not just chasing it.
2.
The long end.
If the 10-year drifts higher even as the Fed cuts and QT winds down, it’s a
reminder that term premium and credibility costs don’t vanish. Rising metals
alongside a firm long bond is the market’s way of saying the “price of relief”
is real.
3.
Breadth. A healthy
tape needs more than a handful of names. If equities rally
with participation, the melt-up can last. If breadth thins again, expect
sharper air pockets.
Bottom line:
policy is loose, inflation isn’t tamed, and the metals are telling you
investors want insurance now, not later. Enjoy the momentum—but keep one eye on
the exits. The last few weeks of the year can be generous, and they can be
unforgiving.
Weekly Market Summary Page
[Return to the Fiend's SuperBear Page]