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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT *

* September 15, 2025 *

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* e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com *

* web address: http://www.fiendbear.com *

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Fiend Commentary

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Small Cuts, Big Risks: The Cure May Come Too Late

Markets head into this week with near certainty: the Fed will cut rates on Wednesday, and the CME assigns a 95% probability to a modest 25-basis-point move. Traders also expect at least three cuts in total for 2025. That’s the script — but what if the script doesn’t match reality?

The problem is scale. Small cuts may soothe sentiment, but they rarely shift an economy already sliding into weakness. If job growth continues to falter and consumer confidence erodes, token easing won’t reverse the tide. That is when pressure builds for something more drastic — and the Fed finds itself debating not just bigger cuts, but the return of quantitative easing.

Such a shift would not be without cost. The dollar, already sagging, would almost certainly break lower, risking a loss of confidence both at home and abroad. The metals market appears to be anticipating exactly that. Gold, which only recently hovered near $3,000, is now pressing toward $3,700. Silver has blasted past $40 and looks set on $50. These aren’t speculative blips — they’re signals that investors doubt the Fed can bring stability with incremental moves.

The irony is that the longer the Fed waits, the bigger the eventual action may have to be. A small cut this week may buy headlines, but it won’t buy time. Markets are already telling us they expect something more.

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