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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                December 29, 2025                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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The Periodic Table Rally Into Year‑End

If you’ve been watching the stock indexes and thinking, “It’s quiet…maybe too quiet,” you’re not imagining it. The VIX is back near its lowest closing levels since last December, while stocks remain within striking distance of record highs. And yet, the real fireworks to end 2025 have been in the commodity complex—especially metals.

Overnight and into Monday, silver briefly broke above $80 (printing fresh all‑time highs in the low‑$80s) before whipping around violently as profit‑taking hit. By the time the dust started to settle, it had swung back toward the high‑$70s—a reminder that in silver, “up big” and “down big” are often just two chapters of the same bull market. Gold, meanwhile, continues to behave like the steady older sibling—holding above $4,500 after setting another record late last week.

That’s the headline. But here’s the part most people are missing:

Silver isn’t the only metal quietly screaming “something is changing”

When investors talk about “the metals,” they usually mean gold and silver. But 2025 has turned into something broader—a metals complex repricing, spanning precious and industrial inputs.

Copper: the stealth breakout

Copper’s move has been enormous, and it matters because copper is the metal that touches everything: housing, grids, data centers, EVs, industrial equipment, and basic manufacturing. The market is starting to price copper less like a cyclical commodity and more like a strategic bottleneck.

A big part of the rally isn’t just demand—it’s supply fragility, long lead times for new mines, and policy/tariff uncertainty that has distorted trade flows. When copper starts acting like a “scarcity asset,” it usually means the world is paying up for real things again.

 

Platinum and palladium: the under‑the‑radar melt‑up

Platinum has had a “catch‑up” year that turned into a breakout, and palladium has been volatile but still part of the broader story. These are not meme assets. They’re inputs—industrial metals tied to autos, emissions systems, and specialized manufacturing.

Their rallies are a sign that this isn’t only about “fear of inflation.” It’s also about fear of shortages and the realization that supply chains don’t magically fix themselves because the calendar turns.

Why is this happening while stocks stay calm?

This is the strangest part of the tape:

  • Stocks are still being priced like the economy will be managed and the downside will be cushioned.
  • Metals are being priced like long‑term purchasing power and policy discipline are less certain than advertised.

Those two views can coexist—until they don’t. Low volatility in stocks doesn’t mean risk is gone; it often means risk is being mispriced or pushed into markets most people aren’t watching.

And metals are the market’s way of saying:
“We want insurance…even if the ‘fear gauge’ says we shouldn’t.”

The last trading days of the year: what usually happens from here

We’re entering the classic year‑end setup: thin liquidity, performance pressure, and exaggerated moves.

Here’s what I’d watch into the final sessions:

1.     Where silver closes, not where it spikes.
Intraday prints above $80 make headlines. But a year‑end close holding the high‑$70s (or better) is what keeps the bull story intact. If it can’t hold and starts closing weak repeatedly, that’s when you worry about a deeper shakeout.

2.     Whether gold keeps confirming the move.
Silver can sprint ahead, but the most durable “regime” shifts usually have gold staying strong too.

3.     Whether copper and platinum keep holding their gains.
If the industrial metals keep firm even as traders take profits in silver, it suggests the move is broader than a single speculative squeeze.

4.     Volatility staying pinned.
A VIX near the floor tells you complacency is still the dominant equity emotion. If VIX starts rising while stocks are still near highs, that’s often the first hint that hedging demand is returning.

5.     The calendar risk markets are ignoring.
The shutdown drama is “solved” only until late January. Markets have a habit of treating Washington deadlines as background noise—right up until a deadline becomes a catalyst.

A non‑mealy‑mouthed call

My base case into year‑end: momentum can persist a bit longer simply because that’s what year‑end positioning often does—pushes what’s working until the bell rings.

But I’ll also say this plainly: silver’s behavior has “blow‑off potential.” That doesn’t mean the bull market ends tomorrow. It means you should expect at least one sudden, nasty downdraft that feels shocking in the moment but is completely normal for silver—especially after a parabolic run.

Ironically, the healthiest thing silver could do next is not sprint to $90. It’s to consolidate without collapsing—because that’s how breakouts turn into new long‑term price floors.

 

 

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