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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                               February 23, 2026                           *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
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Policy Whiplash and $5,000 Gold

Gold didn’t hesitate getting back above $5,000—and that, by itself, is a message.

In early Monday trading, gold pushed into the low-$5,100s again while silver held in the mid-to-upper $80s. After the late-January air pocket, this is not what a “bubble that popped” usually looks like. Instead, it looks like a market that flushed leverage… and then quickly found real buyers underneath.

The catalyst today isn’t a single economic report. It’s policy uncertainty—delivered at full volume.

SCOTUS strikes the tariffs… and the White House replaces them anyway

The Supreme Court knocked out a large swath of the administration’s broad tariffs that were imposed using emergency powers. That should have been a clean headline: “Tariffs struck down.”

But markets don’t trade headlines. They trade what happens next.

What happened next was immediate: a new, blanket tariff was introduced—15%—under a different legal authority. So instead of clarity, we got a new layer of ambiguity:

  • Which tariffs are truly gone, and which are simply rebranded?
  • Do importers receive refunds for tariffs already paid under the invalidated framework?
  • How long does the new 15% levy last, and how many legal challenges follow?
  • What does all of this do to price levels and supply chains at a time when inflation is already a sensitive subject?

That’s why gold is acting like it has a fresh reason to stay elevated. The market is watching the world’s reserve currency country treat trade policy like “whack-a-mole”—one authority removed, another authority substituted. That may be politically effective. But it’s not reassuring to investors who need predictable rules.

The dollar is the quiet amplifier

Gold doesn’t rise in a vacuum. The dollar has been one of the key accelerants.

When the dollar weakens on top of trade-policy uncertainty, markets start to smell an old problem: the possibility that the U.S. is choosing growth and leverage over stability and purchasing power. You can argue the merits of that choice, but you can’t deny the market’s reaction. A soft dollar and uncertain trade policy is almost the ideal environment for hard assets to stay bid.

Silver is steadier—but still has a ceiling to crack

Silver is back in the $80s, which is constructive after the kind of volatility we’ve seen. But silver is also the more emotional metal: it can run harder than gold on the way up, and it can punish late buyers on the way down.

The $90 area still feels like the “prove it” zone—less because of any magic number, and more because it represents the market regaining momentum after a violent shakeout. If silver can push through and hold above that region, sentiment changes quickly. If it can’t, we should expect more whip-sawing and “two steps forward, one step back” action.

Either way, what’s notable is that silver hasn’t collapsed back into oblivion. It’s acting like there is still demand underneath—just not a smooth, one-way trade anymore.

Iran risk is back on the board

A second driver lurking behind all of this is geopolitical risk—specifically the increasing talk of possible military action involving Iran.

Even without a strike, the market doesn’t wait for confirmation. It prices probabilities. That shows up in:

  • safe-haven bids (gold),
  • risk-premium sensitivity (currencies), and
  • oil risk (even when oil hasn’t fully reacted yet).

If the Iran situation escalates, it’s the kind of headline that can turn an already unstable market into a fast one—fast moves in energy, fast moves in the dollar, and fast moves in gold. If diplomacy dominates instead, the risk premium can deflate quickly. But it rarely disappears entirely.

Why the end of February could rhyme with late January

Late January reminded everyone what happens when crowded trades get hit: prices don’t drift down politely. They gap.

The end of February has a similar “setup risk,” just for different reasons:

1.     Policy uncertainty is now a daily variable.

2.     The dollar is not acting confident.

3.     Geopolitics is live.

4.     Month-end positioning can exaggerate moves—especially after volatility.

The biggest wildcard is still whether markets start to believe the next policy response will be easier, faster, and bigger than anyone is admitting today. Even if the Fed is on hold, markets can price a future dovish pivot long before the Fed signals it. That’s one reason the metals can stay supported even when they’ve already had a spectacular run.

What to watch this week

A simple checklist that matters more than most commentary:

  • Does gold hold above $5,000 on quiet days as well as headline days? That’s how you know it’s more than just fear.
  • Does silver retake $90 and hold it, or does it keep stalling and whipping around?
  • Does the dollar keep sliding, or does it catch a real bid? This is the “pressure valve” for metals.
  • Do tariffs become a legal and administrative mess (refunds, exemptions, confusion), or does the new 15% regime settle markets down?
  • Any real escalation in the Middle East—because the market is already pricing some risk, and mispricing can correct violently.

Bottom line: gold above $5,100 and a rapid return above $5,000 isn’t just a chart event—it’s a confidence event. The trade-policy reset didn’t reduce uncertainty; it repackaged it. Add a weak dollar and geopolitical risk, and it’s easy to see why February is starting to feel like it wants to go out the way January did: dramatic, fast, and unforgiving.

 

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