Fiend's SuperBear Market Report

 
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            *                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

            *                                March 8, 2010                              *

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            *                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

            *                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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                                           Fiend Commentary                             

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            February's employment report was weak with continued job losses but it was

            still better than Wall Street's low expectations. The unemployment rate held

            steady at a terrible 9.7% and this was seen as "good news" since it was

            expected to go to 9.8%. Regardless the major stock averages rallied strongly.

            The Nasdaq hit a 18 month high and the Dow and S&P 500 closed in on the

            highs they made in mid-January.

 

            It has been a strong run for the major averages in recent weeks. The Dow has

            gained over 650 points in just the past month. The index is now about 200

            points above its 50 DMA. Intermediate term momentum is still only slightly

            positive at the moment while short and long term momentum remain positive.

 

            NYSE breadth was been especially strong. The a/d line made its fifth

            consecutive all time high. In the past month there has only been a couple

            of days of negative breadth. This is reflected in the Russell 2000 and Value

            Line indexes which are up between 6 to 7 percent for the year compared to a

            2 percent gain for the Dow. Small stocks (also reflected in the Nasdaq)

            have dominated behind the scenes this year.

 

            Commodities have also piled on recently with gold pushing above $80 a barrel

            and gold hanging tough in the $1,125 to $1,150 range. It looks like everything

            is poised for a breakout but one warning sign is the VXO which is near its

            low for the year. Bullishness has creeped up in sentiment but is still far

            from the high levels since prior to the mid-January peak.

 

            Overall the Dow is really in an area where it might find it difficult to

            push through to new highs (above 10,700) for the year. Of course it is when

            it looks difficult that can mean it is actually easier for it to happen. 

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