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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 June 29, 2026                             *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
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The Ceasefire That Keeps Shooting

The weekend delivered another reminder that this “peace” is still more slogan than settlement.

The ceasefire opened up into active shooting again, with attacks, retaliatory strikes, and another scramble to patch things together before Wall Street’s Monday open. Incredibly, that was enough. The market seems willing to accept almost any ceasefire, no matter how fragile, as long as someone can repackage it before the bell.

Oil is the strangest part of the story. Despite the renewed violence, crude remains near levels that would have been unthinkably low just a few weeks ago. WTI has been hovering around the $70 area, while Brent is back in the low $70s. That raises an uncomfortable question: was the Strait disruption really as catastrophic as advertised, or is the market now seeing something else?

Maybe the answer is not conspiracy. Maybe it is supply and demand.

If trapped tankers are now rushing out of the Gulf, if export flows are briefly exceeding normal levels, if Iran is being allowed back into the market under sanctions relief, and if global demand is softer than expected, then oil can fall even while the headlines stay ugly. In that case, the market is not saying “no risk.” It is saying “too much oil at the wrong time.”

That is almost more interesting than the war itself. The world spent months fearing an energy shortage, and now the first major market signal after the reopening is the possibility of a glut. That does not mean the Strait is safe or the conflict is solved. It means the price mechanism is sniffing out weak demand, inventory shifts, and a chaotic rebalancing of supply.

If that is true, it has bigger implications. Lower oil may reduce headline inflation pressure, but it may also be telling us the global economy is weaker than the stock market wants to believe.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin and the crypto-related stocks continue to break down. The enthusiasm is still there in pockets, but there is no real capitulation yet. That is a problem. True bottoms usually come when the crowd is exhausted, not when investors are still talking about the next moonshot.

The whole “Bitcoin treasury company” concept is looking increasingly fragile. The pitch was simple: buy Bitcoin, issue stock or debt, buy more Bitcoin, and let the premium take care of itself. It worked beautifully when the asset rose and money was easy. But when Bitcoin falls, the structure starts looking less like genius and more like leverage wearing a hoodie.

That is the way “sure things” usually end. They become popular after the easy money has already been made. They attract copycats. Then the underlying asset turns, and everyone discovers the business model was not really a business model — it was a price chart.

Strategy remains the symbol of that trade. When Bitcoin was rising, the stock became a kind of leveraged monument to conviction. Now that Bitcoin is struggling, the same leverage works in reverse. The believers are still there, but belief does not prevent margin pressure, investor fatigue, or multiple compression.

This matters beyond crypto because crypto often acts like the first leak in the speculative plumbing. If Bitcoin, Ether, miners, and crypto treasury stocks keep sliding while AI and a handful of mega-cap names remain elevated, the market is not healthy. It is rotating from one mania to another.

That may be the biggest theme heading into the new week: investors are still bullish, but the foundation is increasingly uneven.

Oil is down, but maybe for the wrong reason.
The ceasefire is alive, but only because it keeps getting revived.
Crypto is breaking, but sentiment has not washed out.
Stocks remain optimistic, but leadership is narrow.
Inflation may cool on energy, but the economy may be cooling too.

Wall Street wants to treat lower oil as a clean victory. It may not be. It may be relief from one problem and evidence of another.

And if the crypto unwind continues, it may be the market’s way of reminding everyone that “sure things” always look safest right before they stop working.

 

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