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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                November 3, 2025                           *

*                                                                           *

*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

*****************************************************************************

Fiend Commentary

================

October Wrap: Cuts, Records, and a Thinner Safety Net

The Fed delivered a 25 bp cut, hinted that December isn’t a sure thing, and put a year-end stop on QT. Instead of an across-the-board sugar high, the 10-year finished back above ~4.1% and breadth narrowed even as headline indexes printed fresh records during the month. Nvidia’s jump to a $5T market value crowned the AI trade, but it also underscored how much performance rests on fewer shoulders.

 

Gold broke above $4,300 mid-month, then cooled to hold the $4,000 line into month-end; silver tagged new records before resetting. That’s classic “breakout, shakeout, hold”—insurance demand, not just momentum. The government shutdown kept the data dashboard dim, so price did most of the signaling: stocks priced relief, bonds priced slowdown, metals priced credibility.

 

What it means heading into November

— Policy: Ending QT is a tailwind; the message that cuts aren’t automatic trims the glide path. Liquidity remains supportive, but not unconditional.

— Rates: A single cut didn’t guarantee looser conditions—term premium crept higher and the long end pushed back above 4.1%.

— Breadth: Records with negative breadth are branding, not conviction. The bull case needs broader participation.

— Metals: Holding above the breakouts (roughly $4,000 gold, $50 silver) keeps the “insurance” bid intact, even without new highs every day.

— Macro fog: CPI hovered near 3%—still above target—while the shutdown delayed key labor releases, letting the “cuts now, details later” story dominate.

 

What to watch next

— Real yields vs. multiples: If the 10-year grinds higher, valuation air thins even with QT ending.

— Breadth and small caps: Follow-through from the Russell matters more than one-day spikes.

— Data returning post-shutdown: A single hot or cool print can quickly reprice December odds.

— Balance-sheet signaling: Any hint of “flexibility” once QT stops keeps a floor under gold and silver on down days.

 

Bottom line: October delivered easier policy and new highs—but with higher long yields, narrower leadership, and insurance still bid. If November brings cleaner data and broader participation, the rally gets sturdier. If not, the next move won’t be about the size of a cut; it’ll be about credibility.

 

 

Index  10/31/25  Mn Chng  Mnth %  Yr Chng  Year % 2K Chg*   2000 %

------ --------  -------  ------  -------  ------ --------  ------

Dow30  47562.87  1164.98    2.5%  5018.65   11.8% 36065.75  313.7%

Trans  15890.17   174.63    1.1%    -5.58    0.0% 12912.97  433.7%

Utils   1111.57    -6.61   -0.6%   128.83   13.1%   828.21  292.3%

S&P500  6840.20   151.74    2.3%   958.57   16.3%  5370.95  365.6%

Nasdaq 23724.96  1064.95    4.7%  4414.17   22.9% 19655.65  483.0%

NYSE   21459.58  -104.96   -0.5%  2362.48   12.4%     N/A     N/A

Rus2000 2479.38    42.90    1.8%   249.22   11.2%  1974.63  391.2%

Amex    6928.97   -57.95   -0.8%  2242.69   47.9%  6060.23  697.6%

Val Lne11983.73   -76.97   -0.6%   952.53    8.6% 10957.93 1068.2%

30Yr Tr   46.70    -0.60    1.3%    -1.10    2.3%   -18.10   27.9%

Bnk Idx  149.82    -2.63   -1.7%    22.35   17.5%    72.82   94.6%

MSH 35  7674.64   487.47    6.8%  2359.38   44.4%  6753.86  733.5%

Housing  688.58   -48.63   -6.6%     0.65    0.1%     N/A     N/A

Airline   61.43    -1.71   -2.7%    -5.62   -8.4%   -92.04  -60.0%

Retail  7530.99   385.46    5.4%   651.39    9.5%     N/A     N/A

          

* Change since 12/31/1999

 

Winners-Losers              15-15          21-9

Dow Industrials    Oct-31  Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg Year %

---------------    ------  ------ ------ ------ ------

Caterpillar        577.26  100.11  21.0% 214.50  59.1%  

Intel               39.99    6.44  19.2%  19.94  99.5%  

Amazon             244.22   24.65  11.2%  24.83  11.3%  

SalesForce.com     260.41   23.41   9.9% -73.92 -22.1%  

IBM                307.41   25.25   8.9%  87.58  39.8%              

American Exprss    360.73   28.57   8.6%  63.94  21.5%  

Minn Mining Mnf    166.50   11.32   7.3%  37.41  29.0%  

Cisco               73.11    4.69   6.9%  13.91  23.5%  

Apple              270.37   15.74   6.2%  19.95   8.0%  

Amgen              298.43   16.23   5.8%  37.79  14.5%  

Dow                 23.85    0.92   4.0% -16.28 -40.6%  

Coca-Cola           68.90    2.58   3.9%   6.64  10.7%  

Merck               85.98    2.05   2.4% -13.50 -13.6%  

Johnson-Johnson    188.87    3.45   1.9%  44.25  30.6%  

Chevron-Texaco     157.72    2.43   1.6%  12.88   8.9%  

Microsoft          517.81   -0.14   0.0%  96.31  22.8%  

Visa               340.74   -0.64  -0.2%  24.70   7.8%  

Goldman Sachs      789.37   -6.98  -0.9% 216.75  37.9%  

UnitedHealth       341.56   -3.74  -1.1%-164.30 -32.5%  

JP Morgan Chase    311.12   -4.31  -1.4%  71.41  29.8%  

Disney             112.62   -1.88  -1.6%   1.27   1.1%  

McDonald's         298.43   -5.46  -1.8%   8.54   2.9%  

Wal-Mart           101.18   -1.88  -1.8%  10.83  12.0%  

Procter-Gamble     150.37   -3.28  -2.1% -17.28 -10.3%  

Travelers          268.62  -10.60  -3.8%  27.73  11.5%  

Honeywell          201.33   -9.17  -4.4% -24.56 -10.9%  

Home Depot         379.59  -25.60  -6.3%  -9.40  -2.4%  

Boeing             201.02  -14.81  -6.9%  24.02  13.6%  

Nike                64.59   -5.14  -7.4% -11.08 -14.6%  

Verizon Comm        39.74   -4.21  -9.6%  -0.25  -0.6%  

 

 

                            Fiend's Prime-25©

                            -----------------

                                                      

Winners-Losers                       20-5

    Company        Oct-31   Month  Yr Chg Year %

---------------   -------  ------ ------- ------

Google             281.82   15.7%   91.38  48.0%  

Eli Lilly          862.86   13.1%   90.86  11.8%  

Broadcom           369.63   12.0%  137.79  59.4%  

Amazon             244.22   11.2%   24.83  11.3%  

Salesforce         260.41    9.9%  -73.92 -22.1%  

NVIDIA             202.49    8.5%   68.20  50.8%  

Apple Comp         270.37    6.2%   19.95   8.0%  

Bank of America     53.45    3.6%    9.50  21.6%  

Tesla              456.56    2.7%   52.72  13.1%  

Johnson-Johnson    188.87    1.9%   44.25  30.6%  

Exxon Mobil        114.36    1.4%    6.79   6.3%  

Microsoft          517.81    0.0%   96.31  22.8%  

Visa Inc.          340.74   -0.2%   24.70   7.8%  

UnitedHealth       341.56   -1.1% -164.30 -32.5%  

JP Morgan Chase    311.12   -1.4%   71.41  29.8%  

Costco             911.45   -1.5%   -4.82  -0.5%  

Walmart            101.18   -1.8%   10.83  12.0%  

Procter-Gamble     150.37   -2.1%  -17.28 -10.3%  

Mastercard         551.99   -3.0%   25.42   4.8%  

Berkshire Hath     477.54   -5.0%   24.26   5.4%  

Abbvie             218.04   -5.8%   40.34  22.7%  

Home Depot         379.59   -6.3%   -9.40  -2.4%  

Oracle             262.61   -6.6%   95.97  57.6%  

Netflix           1118.86   -6.7%  227.54  25.5%  

Meta (FB)          648.35  -11.7%   62.84  10.7%

 

Prime-25©        32949.88    3.9% 5886.86  21.8%

 

 

RNK      Company         (Bil)   P/E   Yield Symb      Sector

--- -----------------   ------ ------- ----- ----   ---------------

 1. NVIDIA              $4931   68.87  0.02% NVDA    Technology   

 2. Apple               $4018   42.18  0.38% AAPL    Technology   

 3. Microsoft           $3847   40.02  0.64% MSFT    Technology   

 4. Google              $3406   31.42  0.29% GOOG    Communication

 5. Amazon              $2603   39.84  0.00% AMZN    Consumer     

 6. Broadcom            $1745  178.57  0.64% AVGO    Technology   

 7. Meta (FB)           $1629   25.29  0.32% META    Communication

 8. Tesla               $1470  250.86  0.00% TSLA    Consumer     

 9. Berkshire Hath      $1029   12.72  0.00% BRK-B   Financial    

10. JP Morgan Chase      $856   15.27  1.78% JPM     Financial    

11. Eli Lilly            $817   71.49  0.67% LLY     Healthcare   

12. Walmart              $806   43.42  0.90% WMT     Consumer     

13. Oracle               $746   61.65  0.72% ORCL    Technology   

14. Visa Inc.            $660   34.66  0.69% V       Financial    

15. Mastercard           $496   38.71  0.55% MA      Financial    

16. Exxon Mobil          $487   15.13  3.46% XOM     Energy       

17. Netflix              $476   52.88  0.00% NFLX    Communication

18. Johnson-Johnson      $455   20.99  2.69% JNJ     Healthcare   

19. Costco               $404   53.21  0.54% COST    Consumer     

20. Bank of America      $396   15.96  1.98% BAC     Financial    

21. Abbvie               $386   92.78  3.01% ABBV    Healthcare   

22. Home Depot           $378   25.44  2.41% HD      Consumer     

23. Procter-Gamble       $352   23.87  2.75% PG      Consumer     

24. UnitedHealth         $309   14.28  2.52% UNH     Healthcare   

25. Salesforce           $249   40.94  0.63% CRM     Technology   

    

     Prime-25©         $32,950   37.26  0.57%                     

 

Changes for 2025:

 

NFLX, Netflix, CRM Salesforce, BAC Bank of America were added while

CVX Chevron, MRK Merck, and ADBE Adobe were  removed.

 

 

                                    Currencies

                                    ----------

                                                   

Crrncy   Oct-31  Mn Chg  Mnth %   Yr Chg  Year %  2K Chg*  2000 %

------  -------  ------  ------   ------  ------  -------  ------

Pound    131.51   -2.94   -2.2%     6.36    5.1%   -30.39  -18.8%

SwFrnc   124.27   -1.29   -1.0%    14.10   12.8%    60.80   95.8%

Euro     115.37   -1.97   -1.7%    11.87   11.5%    13.76   13.5%

Yen       64.91   -2.73   -4.0%     1.38    2.2%   -34.01  -34.4%

US Dlr    99.80    2.02    2.1%    -8.69   -8.0%    -1.62   -1.6%

               

    

                                    Commodities

                                    -----------

 Dec                                             

Cmmdty    Oct-31   Mn Chg  Mnth %   Yr Chg  Year % 2K Chng*  2000 %

------ ---------  -------  ------  -------  ------ --------  ------

Gold   $3,996.50 -$123.30    3.2%$1,229.60   44.4%$3,706.90 1280.0%

XAU       279.67   -17.44   -5.9%   142.49  103.9%    211.7  311.5%

Oil       $60.98   -$0.98   -1.6%   -$7.21  -10.6%   $35.38  138.2%

XOI      1878.21   -27.71   -1.5%   114.66    6.5%  1375.21  273.4%

CRB       302.54     1.94    0.6%     5.82    2.0%     97.4   47.5%

 

                                                                                                     

                                  Foreign Markets       

                                  ---------------

                                

Exchng   Oct-31  Mnth Chg  Mnth % Year Chg  Year % 2K Chng*  2000 %

------ --------- --------  ------ --------  ------ --------  ------

TSX     30260.74   237.93    0.8%  5532.80   22.4% 21846.99  259.7%

IPC     62769.18  -146.39   -0.2% 13255.91   26.8% 55639.30  780.4%

BVSP   149540.40  3303.40    2.3% 29257.00   24.3%132448.40  774.9%

FTSE     9717.25   366.82    3.9%  1544.23   18.9%  2787.05   40.2%

CAC-40   8121.07   225.13    2.9%   740.33   10.0%  2162.75   36.3%

DAX     23958.30    77.58    0.3%  4049.16   20.3% 17000.16  244.3%

Swiss   12234.50   125.08    1.0%   633.60    5.5%  4664.40   61.6%

Nikkei  52411.34  7478.71   16.6% 12516.80   31.4% 33477.00  176.8%

HngSng  25906.65  -948.91   -3.5%  5846.70   29.1%  8944.55   52.7%

AllOrd   9178.00    42.10    0.5%   757.50    9.0%  6025.50  191.1%

 

* Change since 12/31/1999 

 

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