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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT *

* October 1, 2026 *

* *

* e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com *

* web address: http://www.fiendbear.com *

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Fiend Commentary
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September: Everybody Can’t Be Right

If someone tried to explain September by looking at one market, they would probably get the economy completely wrong.

The Dow fell 4.3%.

The Nasdaq gained 1.9%.

Technology stocks gained roughly 5.5%.

Gold lost more than 6%.

Silver fell about 8%.

Bitcoin gained roughly 6%.

Brent crude jumped 14%.

The 10-year Treasury yield surged roughly half a percentage point to 5.29%.

And underneath the major stock averages, market breadth deteriorated throughout the month.

Pick your favorite asset and September told a completely different story.

Technology says boom.

Small stocks say trouble.

Bonds say inflation and expensive money.

Gold says high yields matter more than inflation.

Bitcoin says risk appetite is alive.

Oil says the energy crisis isn't finished.

The Federal Reserve says inflation might be improving.

The long end of the Treasury market apparently doesn't believe that is the whole story.

Welcome to October.

The Dow and Nasdaq Didn't Live in the Same Month

Start with stocks.

The Dow lost 4.29% in September, ending a five-month winning streak.

The Nasdaq gained 1.86%.

That is a remarkable spread for two indexes supposedly representing the same economy.

The explanation is technology.

The S&P technology sector gained roughly 5.5% during September while almost everything else struggled. Only technology and communication services managed positive sector returns.

The divergence becomes even more striking when individual stocks are counted rather than weighted by market capitalization.

Nearly four out of five S&P 500 stocks declined during September.

Yet the S&P itself lost less than half of one percent.

How?

The giants.

A handful of enormous technology companies once again provided enough upward pressure to offset weakness across much of the rest of the index.

This is the same narrowing we have been watching for weeks, but the monthly numbers make it difficult to ignore.

The index says September was basically flat.

Most of the stocks inside it say otherwise.

The Breadth Damage Continued Right Into the Close

September didn't end with any sign that this divergence was repairing itself.

Wednesday produced another negative session underneath the averages.

On the NYSE, 1,628 stocks declined against 1,018 advancers.

There were only 23 new highs against 301 new lows.

On the Nasdaq, 368 stocks made new lows against 91 new highs.

The Nasdaq index itself?

Up 0.24%.

There is September in one statistic.

Nasdaq up. Four times as many new lows as new highs.

That isn't impossible.

It is what capitalization-weighted indexes are designed to do.

But it tells us that the health of the biggest stocks and the health of the average stock have become two very different things.

InvesTech's A/D Divergence indicator deteriorated steadily through the second half of September and finished the month at its weakest reading of this decline.

The market did not broaden as September progressed.

It narrowed further.

Then There Were Bonds

If equities were divided, bonds were considerably less ambiguous.

They had a terrible month.

The 10-year Treasury entered September around 4.73%.

It finished around 5.29%.

That is approximately half a percentage point higher in one month.

The 30-year finished near 5.64%.

Treasuries just completed their worst quarter since the 1994 bond-market rout.

That alone would normally be enough to dominate the financial headlines.

Instead, Nvidia, Apple and the AI trade kept the Nasdaq moving higher while one of the most important markets in the world was being repriced underneath it.

That is an extraordinary disconnect.

Long-term Treasury rates influence mortgages.

Corporate bonds.

Commercial real estate.

Car loans.

Government interest expense.

Stock valuations.

Virtually every financial asset ultimately uses the Treasury market somewhere in its pricing.

A half-point monthly move in the 10-year isn't simply something happening to bond traders.

It raises the cost of capital across the economy.

September stocks mostly chose to ignore it.

At least the largest ones did.

Then Inflation Came In Better

Wednesday should have been the perfect opportunity for bonds to recover.

The Fed's preferred inflation measure came in weaker than expected.

Headline PCE rose 0.3% in August, compared with expectations for 0.4%.

On a yearly basis, inflation was 3.4%, below the expected 3.7%.

Core PCE increased only 0.2% for the month and held at 3.0% annually.

Even prior inflation readings were revised lower.

Exactly what bond investors had been asking for.

Treasuries initially rallied.

Then something strange happened.

They gave it back.

Long-term yields moved higher again.

The 10-year closed around 5.29%.

The 30-year moved above 5.6%.

Seven consecutive sessions of rising long-term yields ended September despite the month finishing with an inflation report that was better than expected.

That may be the most important market action of the entire month.

Maybe Inflation Isn't the Only Problem

For years, the bond equation was relatively simple.

Inflation rises.

Bond yields rise.

Inflation falls.

Bond yields fall.

September suggested something more complicated is happening.

Today's inflation rate is only one thing a 10- or 30-year Treasury buyer has to consider.

What will inflation average over the next decade?

How much debt will Washington issue?

How much will corporations borrow?

How much capital will the AI infrastructure boom consume?

What premium should an investor demand for locking money away for 30 years?

And what happens if 2% inflation turns out to be an aspiration rather than a destination?

One soft PCE report doesn't answer any of those questions.

Bond investors may therefore be looking beyond August inflation.

They may be pricing the quantity and cost of money itself.

That would help explain why Wednesday's good inflation news failed to produce the bond rally one might normally expect.

The Economy Wasn't Exactly Weak Either

The rest of Wednesday's economic data complicated the picture further.

Consumer spending surged 0.9% in August.

Private payrolls increased by about 90,000 in September.

Second-quarter GDP was revised to show 2.2% annualized growth.

None of those numbers suggests an economy falling apart.

So the Fed received one piece of welcome news:

Inflation was somewhat softer.

And several pieces of less convenient news:

Consumers are still spending.

Employment is still growing.

The economy is still expanding.

That matters because slowing inflation inside a strong economy gives the Fed more flexibility.

But it also means demand has not weakened enough to guarantee that inflation continues falling—especially with energy costs still working through the system.

And Oil Rose 14%

This may be the biggest problem with celebrating the August PCE number.

August is over.

September oil was considerably more expensive.

Brent crude gained roughly 14% during the month, finishing above $100.

Gasoline and diesel prices surged.

Those energy costs have not fully worked their way through inflation statistics yet.

That doesn't mean September CPI or PCE must explode higher.

Consumers can reduce spending elsewhere.

Businesses can absorb part of the increase through margins.

Oil can retreat.

But the inflation report released Wednesday is inherently backward-looking.

The bond market trades forward.

Perhaps that explains part of the disconnect.

The statistics said August inflation was milder than feared.

The bond market spent September watching what happened next.

And Somehow the Fed Became Less Likely to Hike

Here is another September contradiction.

The 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level in roughly two decades.

The 30-year did the same.

Oil surged.

The Fed raised rates for the first time in years.

Yet by Wednesday afternoon the odds of another increase in October had fallen to roughly 39%.

A week earlier they were near 70%.

That decline makes sense if the softer PCE report is the deciding factor.

It makes less sense if the bond market is the deciding factor.

Once again, two markets appear to be arguing about what comes next.

The front end says:

Warsh can wait.

The long end says:

We want more compensation.

That disagreement may become one of the main stories of October.

Gold and Bitcoin Disagreed Too

The alternative assets didn't even agree with each other.

Gold fell roughly 6.6% in September.

Silver lost about 8%.

Bitcoin gained around 6%.

That is another interesting split.

Gold and Bitcoin are often grouped together under some version of the same monetary argument.

Limited supply.

Distrust of fiat currency.

Protection against debasement.

Alternative stores of value.

September treated them completely differently.

The explanation is probably less mysterious than it appears.

Gold and silver have been crushed by rapidly rising real and nominal Treasury yields.

Gold pays nothing.

A 5.3% Treasury does.

When yields rise that quickly, holding a non-yielding metal becomes more expensive in opportunity-cost terms.

Bitcoin behaves differently.

It increasingly trades partly as a liquidity and momentum asset.

The same technology-heavy risk appetite lifting the Nasdaq can help crypto even while rising yields hurt traditional precious metals.

September therefore managed to produce both of these statements:

Investors were selling gold because yields were too attractive.

Investors were buying Bitcoin because risk appetite remained strong.

Both can be true.

They simply describe different kinds of investors.

September Had Two Economies Too

This split goes beyond markets.

There is the AI economy.

Then there is almost everything else.

Technology companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on data centers, chips, power generation and infrastructure.

Those expenditures support GDP.

They support employment.

They support corporate earnings.

They also require enormous amounts of capital.

Meanwhile the consumer faces six-dollar gasoline in parts of California, record diesel costs, high rents, elevated food prices and borrowing rates that have moved dramatically higher.

The result can look bizarre in aggregate statistics.

GDP remains solid.

Nasdaq makes records.

Consumer confidence plunges.

Small stocks weaken.

Everyone can point to his preferred statistic and claim the economy is either booming or deteriorating.

Again:

Everybody can't be right.

But everybody can be describing a different piece of the same economy.

The Dow May Be Saying Something

The Dow's 4.3% September loss is particularly interesting for that reason.

The Dow contains large companies too.

But its composition is less dominated by the AI and semiconductor boom than the Nasdaq.

A four-percent monthly decline isn't a catastrophe.

But compared with a rising Nasdaq, it suggests that September rewarded one very specific economic theme rather than broad corporate strength.

The Russell 2000 and broader NYSE breadth reinforce the same point.

This was not a month when rising liquidity lifted everything.

It was selective.

Extremely selective.

That selectivity becomes more important when the cost of capital is simultaneously rising.

Companies with huge cash flows and extraordinary growth can tolerate 5% Treasury yields.

Marginal companies cannot.

September began sorting them.

The Most Important Market May Be the One That Fell

Stocks generate the headlines.

Gold generates passion.

Bitcoin generates excitement.

But September's most consequential move may still be bonds.

The Treasury market anchors the financial system.

The 10-year moved approximately 50 basis points higher in a month.

Nearly 90 basis points during the third quarter.

That changes calculations everywhere.

How much is a house worth if the mortgage is 7.5% instead of 5%?

How much is an office building worth if refinancing costs double?

How much is a company worth if future earnings must be discounted at 6% instead of 3%?

How much debt can the government service if trillions of dollars gradually refinance at today's rates?

Those questions don't need immediate answers.

That is exactly what makes them dangerous.

Higher interest rates work slowly.

The refinancing happens gradually.

The valuation adjustments happen gradually.

The economic pressure accumulates.

Then one day something that appeared manageable isn't.

Nothing Broke in September

That should also be acknowledged.

The bond market had an awful month.

Nothing major broke.

The 10-year went through 5%.

Nothing broke.

The Fed raised rates.

Nothing broke.

Oil went above $100.

Nothing broke.

Technology stocks continued rising.

Bitcoin rose.

The economy kept expanding.

Perhaps that resilience is telling us the financial system can handle considerably higher rates than many expected.

That is possible.

But surviving the first month of a repricing isn't the same as being immune to it.

The important question is duration.

Five percent for a week is one thing.

Five percent for a year is another.

Five-and-a-half percent becomes something else.

September May Have Been a Preview

October begins with almost every market pointing in a different direction.

Technology says growth.

Breadth says weakness.

Bonds say higher rates.

PCE says inflation is moderating.

Oil says inflation pressure remains.

Gold says yields matter.

Bitcoin says risk appetite hasn't disappeared.

The Fed futures market says Warsh probably waits.

The long end says investors still want more.

These divergences can resolve peacefully.

Bond yields could peak.

Oil could decline.

Breadth could improve.

Technology leadership could gradually spread to the rest of the market.

That would be the bullish resolution.

There is another possibility.

The parts of the market already weakening may be early rather than wrong.

Higher borrowing costs could eventually reach corporate earnings.

The energy shock could appear in later inflation numbers.

The Fed could be forced into additional tightening.

And the technology giants could eventually discover that they don't operate completely outside the laws of finance.

September didn't answer that question.

It merely made it impossible to ignore.

One Month—Several Different Markets

Perhaps the simplest way to summarize September is this:

Gold down.

Silver down.

Bitcoin up.

Dow down sharply.

Nasdaq up.

Technology up strongly.

Small stocks weak.

Market breadth deteriorating.

Oil up sharply.

Bonds down hard.

Inflation slightly better than expected.

Long-term yields higher anyway.

That isn't a market moving confidently toward a common view of the future.

It is a market arguing with itself.

Sometimes those disagreements resolve quietly.

Sometimes one market has been seeing something the others haven't noticed yet.

As October begins, the challenge is figuring out which September market was telling the truth.

Index 09/30/26 Mn Chng Mnth % Yr Chng Year % 2K Chg* 2000 %

------ -------- ------- ------ ------- ------ -------- ------

Dow30 50906.05 2279.85 -4.3% 2842.76 5.9% 39408.93 342.8%

Trans 19382.09 1919.92 -9.0% 2024.90 11.7% 16404.89 551.0%

Utils 1009.91 -53.25 -5.0% -58.16 -5.4% 726.55 256.4%

S&P500 7651.54 -34.60 -0.5% 806.04 11.8% 6182.29 420.8%

Nasdaq 26861.06 490.17 1.9% 3619.07 15.6% 22791.75 560.1%

NYSE 23490.80 -971.14 -4.0% 1486.87 6.8% N/A N/A

Rus2000 2796.86 -159.59 -5.4% 314.95 12.7% 2292.11 454.1%

Amex 8186.64 -614.51 -7.0% 1319.85 19.2% 7317.90 842.4%

Val Lne13427.56 -744.68 -5.3% 1212.99 9.9% 12401.76 1209.0%

30Yr Tr 56.30 3.90 -7.4% 7.90 -16.3% -8.50 13.1%

Bnk Idx 169.96 -15.46 -8.3% 5.78 3.5% 92.96 120.7%

MSH 35 10072.31 617.92 6.5% 2747.73 37.5% 9151.53 993.9%

Housing 588.39 -58.82 -9.1% -75.90 -11.4% N/A N/A

Airline 65.65 2.90 4.6% -4.60 -6.5% -87.82 -57.2%

Retail 7345.87 -370.53 -4.8% 154.24 2.1% N/A N/A

* Change since 12/31/1999

Winners-Losers 5-25 21-9

Dow Industrials Sep-30 Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg Year %

--------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

Home Depot 284.49 -43.34 -13.2% -54.78 -16.1%

McDonald's 230.94 -32.60 -12.4% -70.94 -23.5%

Goldman Sachs 900.36 -125.54 -12.2% 29.80 3.4%

SalesForce.com 229.57 -27.97 -10.9% -34.00 -12.9%

Boeing 186.05 -21.73 -10.5% -31.07 -14.3%

Dow 27.54 -2.98 -9.8% 4.67 20.4%

Nike 35.40 -3.66 -9.4% -27.33 -43.6%

Verizon Comm 45.87 -4.15 -8.3% 6.43 16.3%

American Exprss 304.10 -26.07 -7.9% -63.87 -17.4%

JP Morgan Chase 330.83 -25.19 -7.1% 11.69 3.7%

IBM 219.93 -13.94 -6.0% -72.45 -24.8%

UnitedHealth 367.08 -22.33 -5.7% 41.38 12.7%

Visa 359.33 -20.04 -5.3% 10.07 2.9%

Minn Mining Mnf 164.15 -7.68 -4.5% 5.59 3.5%

Amazon 249.15 -10.62 -4.1% 18.33 7.9%

Coca-Cola 86.08 -2.59 -2.9% 17.09 24.8%

Cisco 107.63 -2.86 -2.6% 31.42 41.2%

Travelers 356.51 -9.42 -2.6% 68.71 23.9%

Disney 104.90 -2.65 -2.5% -8.87 -7.8%

Amgen 421.51 -8.37 -1.9% 98.89 30.7%

Merck 145.31 -2.45 -1.7% 41.57 40.1%

Honeywell 210.94 -2.59 -1.2% 17.87 9.3%

Chevron-Texaco 204.21 -1.93 -0.9% 54.65 36.5%

Wal-Mart 103.92 -0.95 -0.9% -7.05 -6.4%

Johnson-Johnson 264.74 -1.11 -0.4% 60.06 29.3%

Procter-Gamble 145.28 0.16 0.1% 4.04 2.9%

Microsoft 512.90 5.61 1.1% 31.42 6.5%

Caterpillar 810.79 13.32 1.7% 240.34 42.1%

Apple 333.02 16.17 5.1% 61.66 22.7%

Intel 120.23 30.72 34.3% 83.33 225.8%

Fiend's Prime-25©

-----------------

Winners-Losers 11-14 17-8

Company Sep-30 Mn Chg Month Yr Chg Year %

--------------- ------- ------- ------ ------- ------

AMD 611.76 141.04 30.0% 397.60 185.7%

Meta (FB) 725.18 152.84 26.7% 65.65 10.0%

Micron Tech 1065.11 106.38 11.1% 779.82 273.3%

Apple Comp 333.02 16.17 5.1% 61.41 22.6%

NVIDIA 228.38 7.60 3.4% 41.89 22.5%

Abbvie 261.59 5.17 2.0% 36.79 16.4%

Google 340.74 5.33 1.6% 27.16 8.7%

Exxon Mobil 162.75 1.80 1.1% 43.21 36.1%

Microsoft 512.90 5.61 1.1% 30.38 6.3%

Palantir Tech 187.05 0.67 0.4% 9.30 5.2%

Eli Lilly 1157.08 0.35 0.0% 84.19 7.8%

Johnson-Johnson 264.74 -1.11 -0.4% 58.88 28.6%

Walmart 103.92 -0.95 -0.9% -7.26 -6.5%

Berkshire Hath 497.95 -6.08 -1.2% -4.70 -0.9%

Costco 910.34 -33.55 -3.6% 50.42 5.9%

Tesla 354.81 -13.14 -3.6% -94.91 -21.1%

Amazon 249.15 -10.62 -4.1% 18.33 7.9%

Broadcom 351.19 -19.15 -5.2% 5.81 1.7%

Visa Inc. 359.33 -20.04 -5.3% 9.34 2.7%

Mastercard 551.47 -37.84 -6.4% -17.58 -3.1%

JP Morgan Chase 330.83 -25.19 -7.1% 11.69 3.7%

Oracle 137.30 -11.82 -7.9% -56.42 -29.1%

Bank of America 54.43 -7.51 -12.1% -0.26 -0.5%

Home Depot 284.49 -43.34 -13.2% -57.32 -16.8%

Netflix 69.58 -11.47 -14.2% -24.18 -25.8%

Prime-25© 37136.99 - 672.42 1.8% 4192.61 12.7%

RNK Company (Bil) P/E Yield Symb Sector

--- ----------------- ------ ------- ----- ---- ---------------

1. NVIDIA $5550 46.61 0.02% NVDA Technology

2. Apple $4895 42.15 0.31% AAPL Technology

3. Google $4118 31.52 0.25% GOOG Communication

4. Microsoft $3811 32.10 0.68% MSFT Technology

5. Amazon $2673 34.75 0.00% AMZN Consumer

6. Meta (FB) $1835 30.87 0.29% META Communication

7. Broadcom $1665 68.46 0.71% AVGO Technology

8. Tesla $1331 328.53 0.00% TSLA Consumer

9. Micron Tech $1204 50.29 0.05% MU Technology

10. Eli Lilly $1093 51.22 0.54% LLY Healthcare

11. Berkshire Hath $1076 16.04 0.00% BRK-B Financial

12. AMD $997 231.73 0.00% AMD Technology

13. JP Morgan Chase $893 15.84 1.78% JPM Financial

14. Walmart $828 38.07 0.91% WMT Consumer

15. Visa Inc. $685 34.06 0.70% V Financial

16. Exxon Mobil $680 24.33 2.48% XOM Energy

17. Johnson-Johnson $638 30.61 1.96% JNJ Healthcare

18. Mastercard $489 33.38 0.59% MA Financial

19. Abbvie $463 110.84 2.61% ABBV Healthcare

20. Palantir $447 296.90 0.00% PLTR Technology

21. Costco $404 47.34 0.57% COST Consumer

22. Oracle $395 24.65 1.46% ORCL Technology

23. Bank of America $391 13.51 2.02% BAC Financial

24. Netflix $293 22.52 0.00% NFLX Communication

25. Home Depot $283 19.98 3.24% HD Consumer

Prime-25© $37,137 36.62 0.47%

Changes for 2026:

PLTR Palantir, AMD, and MU Micron Tech were added while

CRM SalesForce, PG Procter-Gamble, and UNH UnitedHealth were removed.

Currencies

----------

Crrncy Sep-30 Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg Year % 2K Chg* 2000 %

------ ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------

Pound 132.64 -2.86 -2.1% -1.84 -1.4% -29.26 -18.1%

SwFrnc 119.65 -4.06 -3.3% -6.35 -5.0% 56.18 88.5%

Euro 113.30 -2.87 -2.5% -4.02 -3.4% 11.69 11.5%

Yen 63.55 0.95 1.5% -0.22 -0.3% -35.37 -35.8%

US Dlr 101.45 2.02 2.0% 3.13 3.2% 0.03 0.0%

Commodities

-----------

Oct

Cmmdty Sep-30 Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg Year % 2K Chng* 2000 %

------ --------- ------- ------ ------- ------ -------- ------

Gold $4,155.60 -$291.20 -6.5% -$312.90 -7.0%$3,866.00 1334.9%

XAU 361.15 -46.49 -11.4% 18.87 5.5% 293.18 431.3%

Oil/Nv $90.42 $6.36 7.6% $33.50 58.9% $64.82 253.2%

XOI 3004.32 -0.39 0.0% 1147.56 61.8% 2501.32 497.3%

CRB 410.25 -0.32 -0.1% 111.47 37.3% 205.11 100.0%

Foreign Markets

---------------

Exchng Sep-30 Mnth Chg Mnth % Year Chg Year % 2K Chng* 2000 %

------ --------- -------- ------ -------- ------ -------- ------

TSX 35235.87 -1034.61 -2.9% 3523.11 11.1% 26822.12 318.8%

IPC 64214.36 -1215.96 -1.9% -93.93 -0.1% 57084.48 800.6%

BVSP 186340.50 8921.70 5.0% 25215.10 15.6%169248.50 990.2%

FTSE 10606.00 -218.26 -2.0% 674.62 6.8% 3675.80 53.0%

CAC-40 7964.51 -369.99 -4.4% -184.99 -2.3% 2006.19 33.7%

DAX 25199.19 -1058.92 -4.0% 708.78 2.9% 18241.05 262.2%

Swiss 13830.34 -456.09 -3.2% 562.86 4.2% 6260.24 82.7%

Nikkei 66753.72 441.79 0.7% 16414.24 32.6% 47819.38 252.6%

HngSng 24613.27 -953.72 -3.7% -1017.27 -4.0% 7651.17 45.1%

AllOrd 8969.20 -302.20 -3.3% -49.60 -0.5% 5816.70 184.5%

* Change since 12/31/1999

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