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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 June 25, 2026                             *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
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Metals Crash or Mid-Cycle Reset?

The front-page cartoon says it well: gold and silver have gone from royalty to roadkill in a hurry.

After the breathtaking surge earlier this year, the selloff now looks just as emotional in the other direction. Gold has broken below the big $4,000 level, silver has been crushed from its January highs, and the dollar has suddenly become king again. The market is acting as if the Fed has rediscovered religion and Kevin Warsh is about to channel Paul Volcker.

That may be getting ahead of reality.

Yes, the metals were overextended. Yes, a blowoff move like the one we saw in January was always going to invite a vicious correction. And yes, if traders suddenly believe the Fed may actually raise rates instead of cutting them, that is a major headwind for gold and silver. But the market may now be making the opposite mistake from the one it made at the top.

Back in January, investors were chasing metals on the belief that inflation would be tolerated, the dollar would keep sliding, and the Fed would eventually blink. Now the crowd is running the other way on the belief that the Fed is about to get tough, the dollar will stay strong, and inflation can be beaten with stern talk and maybe a rate hike or two. That may be just as simplistic.

The real question is whether the Fed can truly afford to be tough.

That is where the metals story gets interesting. A central bank can talk hawkishly. It can lean on market psychology. It can try to cool inflation expectations with speeches and forecasts. But actually following through is another matter. If the economy weakens, if employment softens, if asset prices wobble too hard, or if financing costs start causing real stress, the appetite for “necessary pain” tends to disappear very quickly.

That is why it is hard to declare the metals bull market dead.

A true secular top usually comes with the underlying reasons for owning the metals being removed. Have they been removed? Not really. The federal debt burden is still enormous. Deficits are still huge. The economy still looks uneven. And the Fed still has to choose between protecting growth and protecting the currency. Historically, when that choice becomes uncomfortable, central bankers eventually lean toward growth and market stability.

That does not mean gold and silver snap right back tomorrow. Silver in particular can overshoot wildly both up and down. It may need time to base. Gold may hold up better first, with silver lagging until confidence returns. A stronger dollar and rate-hike talk can continue to pressure both metals for a while longer. If Warsh keeps up the jawboning and the next inflation reports cool somewhat, the correction could drag on.

But if the economy shows more weakness, the market will start asking a new question: Is the Fed really going to hike into softness? That is where the dollar’s current strength could start to look temporary instead of durable. And if the dollar turns lower again, metals could come back to life faster than many expect.

So was the rally overdone? Absolutely.

Is the selloff overdone? Very possibly.

My guess is that this is not the end of the metals bull market, but a violent reset after a mania phase. Gold and silver got too far ahead of themselves early in the year, and now they are paying the price. But the deeper backdrop that drove the move in the first place — too much debt, too much fiscal strain, and a central bank with limited room to be genuinely tough — has not gone away.

The bull market may not be over. It may simply be pausing long enough to shake out the latecomers and test conviction.

And if Warsh turns out to be more talk than Volcker, the metals market will notice soon enough.

 

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