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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 April 14, 2026                            *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
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The Market’s Favorite Trick Is Forgetting

Monday’s market action was a perfect example of 2026 in miniature: bad news hit, oil jumped above $100, stocks fell at the open…and then Wall Street decided none of it mattered.

By the close, the S&P 500 was up about 1%, the Nasdaq gained more than 1%, and even the Dow finished higher. The storyline flipped from “blockade shock” to “maybe diplomacy still wins.” Oil, which had surged above $100 on the headlines, reversed and closed back below that level.

That sounds comforting. It probably shouldn’t.

The real story is not that markets calmed down. It’s how quickly they calmed down. A market that can swing from fear to relief in a few hours is not stable. It is jumpy, crowded, and desperate to believe that every crisis will be walked back before it does real damage.

That same optimism is showing up in rates. Just a few weeks ago, traders were flirting with the idea that the next Fed move in 2026 might actually be a hike. Now that fear is fading again, and the odds of at least one cut this year are creeping back into the conversation. The market is trying to tell itself a simple story: weaker growth will eventually matter more than higher oil.

That may turn out to be right. But it’s a big bet.

Because oil near $100 is not “back to normal.” It is still roughly double where it was only a few months ago. If prices stay elevated, even without another spike, that becomes an economic problem fast:

  • transportation costs stay high,
  • consumer confidence gets hit,
  • and inflation pressure seeps into places that take longer to cool back down.

That is why the dollar matters so much here. On Monday, the dollar slipped back toward recent lows even as the conflict remained unresolved. When the dollar weakens while crude stays high, it is usually a sign the market is leaning toward easier policy later — but it is also a warning that inflation expectations may not stay as tame as officials would like.

Gold and silver held up better than many expected. Gold rebounded and silver rose about 2%, which fits the idea that the metals are no longer just trading fear. They are also trading the possibility that the Fed eventually has to choose growth support over inflation discipline.

And that is the bigger takeaway for Tuesday: the market is increasingly willing to look through the current energy shock because it assumes policy will eventually bend. Whether that is realistic depends on how long oil stays high and how much damage it does before the Fed ever gets the chance.

For now, the market is acting like there is always another positive interpretation around the corner.

That has worked extremely well.

Until it doesn’t.

                                                                                          

 

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