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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT *

* January 30, 2026 *

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* e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com *

* web address: http://www.fiendbear.com *

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Fiend Commentary
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Month-End Whiplash: Metals Blink, Stocks Stall, and the Fed Chair Pick Looms

Friday is shaping up to be a classic “end-of-month reset” session, but with unusually high voltage.

After an explosive January in precious metals, gold and silver are finally doing what parabolic markets always do sooner or later: they are forcing late buyers and leveraged momentum traders to confront gravity. Overnight, both metals have given back ground from record highs. The timing is not a coincidence. When a move becomes everyone’s favorite story, the market eventually runs out of incremental buyers and turns into a crowded theater where everyone heads for the exit at once.

What’s different today is the catalyst sitting right on top of month-end positioning: President Trump is expected to announce his choice for the next Fed chair. That single headline can move more than just rates expectations. It can change the story investors tell themselves about the next 6 to 12 months: “easy money forever” vs. “credibility first” vs. “politics first.”

Even the possibility of a chair perceived as less dovish than markets assumed is enough to trigger profit-taking in assets that have been screaming “future inflation” for weeks. You can see it in the price action: gold and silver didn’t drift lower calmly; they snapped lower. That’s not a change in the long-term narrative yet. It’s the market clearing excess leverage and froth.

Meanwhile, equities are acting like a different species altogether.

The S&P 500 stalled again just shy of the 7,000 milestone as tech stocks took a hit. That matters, because the whole market’s “everything is fine” vibe has been riding on a narrow group of mega-cap winners. When Big Tech wobbles, the illusion of stability wobbles with it. The fact that stocks can’t power cleanly through a headline milestone while metals are swinging wildly is a sign of a market that’s no longer moving in one confident, unified direction.

So what’s the setup for the last trading day of January?

1. Metals are trying to decide whether this is a healthy pullback or the first real crack.
A healthy bull market pullback is violent, fast, and emotionally convincing. It makes people feel stupid for buying. Then it stabilizes and grinds higher again. If gold and silver can stop falling even while the headlines are “scary,” that’s the tell that underlying demand is still relentless.

2. The Fed chair announcement is the headline risk that can cut both ways.
If Trump names someone the market reads as an aggressive rate-cutter (or QE-friendly), the dollar likely stays under pressure and metals can find their footing quickly.
If the pick is viewed as a credibility-restorer (tougher on inflation, tougher on balance-sheet growth, or simply less willing to “rescue” markets), then the unwind can continue longer than people expect, especially given how extended metals became in January.

3. The shutdown threat is back, even if it becomes “just a short one.”
Markets have learned to shrug at Washington dysfunction, but the real issue is not politics — it’s disruption, delays, and uncertainty. When investors are already jumpy, even “background noise” can amplify volatility.

My view going into the close: expect a two-sided, choppy session where the winners of January get trimmed and volatility remains elevated. The bigger question isn’t whether gold or silver can dip — they can and they will. The question is whether the dip attracts strong buying interest quickly, or whether the market needs a deeper “washout” to reset sentiment before the next leg.

Either way, January is ending the same way it traded: with speed, drama, and a sense that the market is leaning hard in multiple directions at once.

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