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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* March 24,
2026 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web address:
http://www.fiendbear.com
*
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Fiend Commentary
================
Monday’s
rally was built on a simple idea: maybe the worst of the oil shock was behind
us.
Oil
collapsed more than 10% after President Trump announced a five‑day
pause on further strikes against Iranian energy targets and hinted at
“productive” conversations. Stocks surged in relief, and even battered areas
like miners finally caught a bid. It felt like the market exhaled.
By Tuesday
morning, that exhale is already turning into a cough.
Overnight,
oil is climbing again — Brent back above ~$103 and WTI near ~$92
— because the real problem was never “panic pricing.” The real problem is that
the situation in the Gulf still doesn’t have a clear, enforceable resolution.
Iran has publicly denied the idea of meaningful talks, the Strait remains a
question mark, and the market is being forced to admit something it doesn’t
like: the five‑day pause may only be a delay, not a turning point.
That’s why
futures are soft again. The market is realizing it has been trading headlines,
not outcomes.
The market’s
new fear isn’t oil at $150 — it’s oil staying “high enough” for long enough
Investors
don’t need crude to explode to break the economy’s rhythm. They only need it to
stay elevated long enough to seep into everything:
Even oil
that stabilizes “only” near $100 is a major jump from last year’s comfort zone.
And importantly, it comes on top of an economy that was already showing fatigue
before this conflict escalated.
Rate cuts
and “low inflation” optimism is fading fast
This is the
key shift happening underneath the daily volatility.
When oil
jumps and stays jumpy, inflation risk creeps back into the conversation — and
that pushes out the moment when the Fed can safely cut. Even if jobs weaken,
even if growth slows, policymakers get boxed in if energy-driven inflation
keeps threatening the next CPI/PCE prints.
So the
market’s posture is changing from:
“Cuts will
save us later this year”
to
“Cuts might not come when we need them.”
That’s why
gold, which usually thrives in chaos, is struggling to regain traction on a
sustained basis. In the short run, gold can get squeezed by a firmer dollar and
rising yields. In other words: even the “insurance trade” isn’t immune when the
market is forced to reprice rates and liquidity.
Why the
action feels so unstable
We’re
watching a market that still wants to believe in a clean narrative — but can’t
find one.
If the
situation doesn’t move toward a real resolution soon, investors may do the most
rational thing possible: step aside. When outcomes are unknowable, cash
becomes its own kind of position.
The takeaway
for Tuesday is straightforward: this tape is not being driven by fundamentals
alone — it’s being driven by how quickly (or slowly) the world moves from
“paused escalation” to “actual de-escalation.” Until that happens, any relief
rally can be undone just as fast as it was created.
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