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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* December 24,
2025 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web
address: http://www.fiendbear.com *
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Fiend Commentary
================
Christmas
Eve: Santa Brought Bullion, Not Peace of Mind
Silver has
finally done the thing people talk about for years and then act shocked when it
actually happens: it broke decisively above $70
and kept running. Gold, not to be outdone, pushed through $4,500 and set
fresh record highs.
On the
surface, this looks like a “risk-on” holiday tape: stocks still hovering near
records, and the VIX falling to its lowest close in about a year. But the
metals are telling a very different story. When the so‑called fear gauge
is quiet while silver is acting like it’s being chased, it’s usually a sign
that the anxiety isn’t about tomorrow’s stock move—it’s about the
longer-term value of money and the credibility of policy.
Why this
silver move feels like the Hunt Brothers era (but isn’t)
The Hunt
Brothers episode in 1980 had a clear villain and a clear mechanism: leverage,
concentration, and a market-corner dynamic that ended with forced liquidations
and rule changes. Today’s silver surge doesn’t need a corner to behave like a
squeeze—because silver is simply a smaller, tighter market than gold, and it
has two engines instead of one:
1) The
monetary engine
Gold and silver both benefit when the market believes rates are headed lower
and liquidity is headed higher. “Cuts into 2026” and “QT ending” have the same
psychological effect even before any official action: they tell investors the
system will be supported, even if inflation isn’t fully tamed.
2) The
industrial engine
Silver is also an industrial input, and that’s the twist many casual investors
miss. When you combine strong investment demand with steady industrial pull—and
you layer that on top of shrinking available inventories—you can get a move
that accelerates faster than the headlines can keep up with.
That’s why
silver often looks “wilder” than gold. It’s not just a store-of-value trade.
It’s also a scarcity trade in a thinner market, which can turn a rally
into a dash.
The real disconnect: calm stocks vs. loud metals
A low VIX is
basically the market saying:
“We expect stability. Any wobble will be managed.”
Silver at
new records is the market saying:
“We don’t fully trust stability. We’re hedging the system.”
Those two
messages can coexist for a while—especially into
year-end, when liquidity is thin and positioning matters more than logic. But
the combination is revealing: confidence is high in
financial asset prices, yet demand for monetary metals
is even higher. That’s not a normal mix. It’s what you see when investors
are quietly preparing for a world where policy becomes more reactive and less
disciplined.
A one-year
recap that should make people pause
This year
was not a “normal up year” for metals. It was a regime-change kind of move:
And the most
important point: almost nobody forecast $70 silver
in 2025. Which is a reminder that the market doesn’t move based on what is
“reasonable.” It moves based on what becomes necessary—or what becomes feared.
Silver isn’t
running because the Hunt Brothers are back.
Silver is running because the market is starting to price a future where
easing is the default setting, deficits stay enormous, and the value of
“cash” as a safe choice feels less convincing.
Stocks are
still partying. Metals are quietly buying insurance.
That’s the
Christmas Eve message.
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