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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 January 14, 2026                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
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Silver at $90, Gold Near Records, and Stocks Still Flinch

Wednesday’s market mood can be summed up in one sentence: inflation behaved, metals didn’t, and stocks still found something to worry about.

Silver cracked $90 overnight and is now up roughly the high‑20% range year-to-date—and we’re barely into mid‑January. Gold is also pressing fresh highs. That’s the kind of price action you usually see when investors are trying to get in front of something… not when everyone is feeling calm and fully confident.

Yet at the same time, the latest CPI report was “tame” by recent standards—not perfect, but not the kind of upside surprise that forces the Fed to slam the brakes. And still, stocks pulled back.

So what gives? Why would the inflation data look manageable, yet the broad market still trade like it’s stepping carefully on thin ice?

1) The CPI didn’t scream “inflation is back”… but it didn’t say “mission accomplished” either

The headline CPI stayed elevated versus the Fed’s old comfort zone, while core inflation looked more restrained. That’s the “tame” part.

But there are two important footnotes that matter more than the headline:

  • Real life inflation is still concentrated where people feel it most—food, shelter, and other unavoidable categories. When those stay sticky, public confidence doesn’t recover the way economists’ charts suggest it “should.”
  • The data itself still has baggage. Shutdown-related distortions don’t disappear overnight. If the data collection process was disrupted and then resumed, you can get prints that look smoother than reality—followed by a catch‑up period later.

In other words: CPI may be calming down on paper, but the public experience—and the potential for a “January re-acceleration” effect—keeps everyone a little jumpy.

2) Silver’s message is not “inflation today”… it’s “trust tomorrow”

Silver doesn’t move like this because someone did a neat spreadsheet on last month’s CPI.

Silver moves like this when markets start to believe one (or more) of these is happening:

  • Policy is going to get easier (even if officials deny it right now).
  • The currency is going to get weaker over time (even if it bounces short-term).
  • The financial system is leaning harder on liquidity and leverage than it admits.
  • People want insurance against a future that feels less stable than the headlines suggest.

That’s why this rally feels different from a normal commodity spike. It has more of a “monetary metal” tone than an “industrial demand is up a bit” tone.

And silver is the loudest metal when this kind of psychology takes hold—because it’s thinner, more volatile, and easier to launch into orbit when the crowd rushes in.

3) Stocks are partying… but the credit system is quietly coughing

One underappreciated theme right now is that we’re watching a market that wants to levitate, while the credit engine underneath it is showing stress signals.

A perfect example is the renewed attention on consumer credit. When policymakers start floating big, dramatic “relief” ideas around credit card rates, it’s not a sign of a strong consumer. It’s a sign that the average household is already stretched.

That matters because:

  • Stocks can rally on optimism.
  • But the economy runs on payments—and the modern consumer runs on financing.

If the consumer can’t comfortably carry autos, housing, and revolving credit at today’s terms, then growth slows unless credit gets cheaper or standards get looser.

That’s the trap:
To keep the economy humming, the system needs easy credit.
But easy credit is exactly what can reignite inflation later.

4) Jobs are slowing—slowly—but the direction matters

The recent jobs data has supported the “cooling labor market” narrative. You don’t need layoffs to surge for the story to change; you just need hiring to stall and job security to feel less certain.

When job growth fades, the Fed eventually gets pressure to “do something.” Not necessarily this month. Not necessarily next meeting. But the pressure builds.

That’s one reason metals can rise even when stocks hesitate: metals can sniff out the policy trajectory even before the official tone shifts.

5) Oil is contained, but geopolitics is not

Oil is not exploding higher right now—which is important. A surging oil price would pour gasoline on inflation fears.

Instead, crude has been relatively contained, pulled in two directions:

  • More supply / resumed flows from Venezuela pushing prices down.
  • Iran-related instability risk pushing prices up.

So we get a choppy oil market, not a runaway one.

But even without an oil spike, the broader geopolitical temperature still feeds into “safe-haven” behavior—and right now, gold and silver are acting like safe-havens with rocket boosters.

What to watch next

If you want a simple checklist for the next few weeks, here it is:

1.     Does silver hold $90… or does it start whipping violently?
Big upside breakouts often come with sudden air pockets. A violent pullback would not “kill” the bull trend—but it would be a warning that speculation is running hot.

2.     Does inflation stay calm after the calendar turns?
January can be a tricky month for pricing. If inflation firms again, the “rate cuts later” story gets complicated.

3.     Do credit headlines grow louder?
When markets start focusing on credit availability (not just the cost of money), the cycle is getting late.

4.     Does the Fed get pulled into politics even more openly?
Markets can ignore a lot—until they can’t. Confidence is slow to build and fast to break.

Bottom line

We’re watching a market that is trying to do two things at once:

  • Celebrate the soft CPI / easier-policy future, and
  • Hedge the possibility that the system is getting shakier underneath the surface.

That combination—stocks near highs, volatility low, metals screaming higher—is not “normal.” It’s a sign the crowd is smiling… while quietly buying insurance.

 

 

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