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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 January 23, 2026                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
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The $5,000 / $100 Warning Light

Overnight, gold and silver are flirting with psychological thresholds that would have sounded like satire a year ago: $5,000 gold and $100 silver. These aren’t just “nice round numbers.” They’re the kind of levels that force a simple question onto the table:

If the world is so confident, why are the metals screaming?

The short answer is that this rally no longer looks like a niche trade or a one-week panic hedge. It’s starting to look like a confidence vote—and the vote is drifting away from paper promises and toward hard collateral.

This is the unusual part: the dollar and long bonds aren’t acting like safe havens

A classic risk-off shock usually drives stocks down, bond yields down, and the dollar up.

But lately we’ve been seeing something more uncomfortable: the dollar weakening while long-term yields stay elevated (and in places, flirt with the 5% neighborhood). That’s not a “recession trade.” That’s a risk premium trade—markets demanding extra compensation to hold long-duration U.S. promises at a time when policy feels improvisational.

The metals market tends to sniff that out early, because gold and silver don’t need a rosy growth story to work. They just need people to question the measuring stick.

Inflation is drifting the wrong way at exactly the wrong time

The latest inflation data that’s finally trickling out (after the shutdown delays) doesn’t scream “spiral,” but it does confirm something the public already feels: inflation is not neatly returning to 2% on schedule.

And here’s the awkward overlay: QT is over and balance-sheet purchases are back on the menu—even if the Fed insists it’s “technical” and “not QE.” Whatever the label, the practical effect is simple: the balance sheet is no longer shrinking the way it was, and liquidity conditions feel less restrictive than they did when the Fed was actively draining.

That’s why the metals move makes sense even if rate cuts are getting pushed further out. Markets can live without rate cuts for a while. What they can’t ignore is the perception that the system is quietly sliding back toward easier liquidity while inflation refuses to behave.

The “post-Powell Fed” narrative is gasoline—whether it’s true or not

A big part of the speculative psychology right now is the idea that once Powell is gone, the next chair (or the political pressure around the next chair) will bring more aggressive cuts—even if inflation is sticky.

That belief doesn’t have to be correct to move markets. It only has to become widely held.

And if you combine:

  • expectations of easier policy later,
  • inflation that won’t fully cool,
  • and a dollar that can’t catch a bid,

…you get exactly the kind of environment where gold and silver don’t just rise—they gap higher.

Should rate hikes be considered?

In a textbook world, yes: if inflation is re-accelerating and the currency is weakening, tighter policy is the clean remedy.

In the real world, it’s hard to imagine. With debt loads where they are, meaningful hikes would quickly collide with:

  • federal interest expense,
  • financial stability risk,
  • and political reality.

That’s why markets keep coming back to the same uncomfortable conclusion: the likely path is not “Volcker 2.0.” It’s some form of tolerated inflation, periodic liquidity support, and a hope that growth and productivity bail everyone out.

Metals traders aren’t waiting around to see if that hope works.

So what now—blow-off top or regime shift?

It can be either, and the tape will tell us.

This is what a blow-off would look like:

  • silver tags $100, goes vertical, then snaps back violently (classic milestone selling),
  • gold fails to hold near $5,000,
  • the dollar stabilizes, and yields stop creeping higher.

This is what a regime shift would look like:

  • gold and silver clear the levels and hold them despite scary headlines fading,
  • the dollar keeps sagging even on “good news” days,
  • long yields refuse to fall much even when growth scares hit.

Either way, it’s a wild way to start the year: stocks still trying to levitate, while metals are acting like the floorboards are creaking.

Bottom line: When gold is pressing $5,000 and silver is stalking $100, the story isn’t “miners had a good week.” The story is that confidence—quietly, steadily—may be starting to migrate.

 

 

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