Fiend's SuperBear Market Report

---

*****************************************************************************

* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT *

* March 10, 2010 *

* *

* e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com *

* web address: http://www.fiendbear.com *

*****************************************************************************

Fiend Commentary

================

One/Ten Year Anniversary

02/09/09 8270.87 -9.72 1654/1384/108 270 8463 -49 10393 -220 16703 -0.20

02/10/09 7888.88 -381.99 469/2618/ 66 -2149 8447 -198 10368 -241 16560 -0.24

02/11/09 7939.53 50.65 1799/1228/ 95 571 8429 -211 10344 -238 16621 -0.23

02/12/09 7932.76 -6.77 1416/1607/109 -191 8424 -51 10319 -237 16588 -0.23

02/13/09 7850.41 -82.35 1165/1853/114 -688 8413 -135 10294 -241 16527 -0.24

02/17/09 7552.60 -297.81 219/2894/ 44 -2675 8392 -248 10267 -266 16332 -0.26

02/18/09 7555.63 3.03 882/2193/ 83 -1311 8376 -196 10239 -269 16233 -0.26

02/19/09 7465.95 -89.68 857/2214/ 93 -1357 8353 -280 10212 -269 16138 -0.27

02/20/09 7365.67 -100.28 765/2338/ 71 -1573 8321 -377 10184 -278 16020 -0.28

02/23/09 7114.78 -250.89 414/2691/ 69 -2277 8290 -380 10155 -281 15876 -0.30

02/24/09 7350.94 236.16 2666/ 446/ 66 2220 8261 -341 10128 -272 16021 -0.27

02/25/09 7270.89 -80.05 1210/1877/ 67 -667 8236 -314 10100 -271 15942 -0.28

02/26/09 7182.08 -88.81 1406/1676/ 80 -270 8207 -353 10072 -283 15896 -0.29

02/27/09 7062.93 -119.15 1010/2055/ 93 -1045 8177 -367 10043 -287 15812 -0.30

03/02/09 6763.29 -299.64 186/2933/ 48 -2747 8133 -531 10012 -306 15623 -0.32

03/03/09 6726.02 -37.27 1000/2111/ 72 -1111 8091 -519 9981 -314 15525 -0.33

03/04/09 6875.84 149.82 2479/ 628/ 61 1851 8057 -429 9950 -307 15663 -0.31

03/05/09 6594.44 -281.40 235/2883/ 47 -2648 8017 -495 9918 -324 15475 -0.34

03/06/09 6626.94 32.50 1133/1929/101 -796 7979 -474 9887 -314 15405 -0.33

03/09/09 6547.05 -79.89 885/2210/ 77 -1325 7942 -471 9857 -307 15301 -0.34

This is what the action looked like leading up to the Dow hitting a 12 year

low one year ago. In a brutal month the index crashed 20%. Momentum

was as negative as anything seen in stock market history. The Dow's close of

34% below its 200 DMA was the lowest since the 1930s. A spectacular collapse

that washed out anyone even thinking about being bullish.

Of course a major low was made and the Dow since that time has soared just over

4,000 points in the past year. The other major indexes have been strong as well

with the Nasdaq closing at an 18 month high. Exactly ten years ago the Nasdaq

closed at its all time high above 5,000 at 5,048.62. Ten years later the index

is still down over 50% from that mark. Imagine if you made such a prediction on

that euphoric day. You would have been locked up!

I think the big lesson learned in the last year (and certainly the last ten) is

that you can't assume the current trend is going to last indefinitely. It is

all too common for folks to get caught up in the trend at exactly the worst

time. This is one of the reasons why I still think stocks are moving higher

from here. Sentiment just hasn't gotten bullish enough for a major turning

point yet. Folks are still beaten down.

Whatever way you look at it the Nasdaq may never get back to 5,000 like the

Nikkei doesn't look like it will ever get back to 40,000. Dow 14,000 (its

record from 2007) looks comparatively easy especially since the index is

structured to drop loser stocks.

Overall we have been in a secular bear market for the past ten years. This

could easily go on for another ten years. Numerous bull trends followed by

brutal bear trends. The final bottom will likely be far worse than what we

saw a year ago.

---

Weekly Market Summary Page
[Return to the Fiend's SuperBear Page]