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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                  May 26, 2026                             *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
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The Pre-Peace Rally

With U.S. markets closed Monday for Memorial Day, traders had a long weekend to do what they’ve done repeatedly during this conflict: buy the rumor before the deal exists.

Stock futures are pointing higher into Tuesday, and if the cash market follows through, the major averages could be right back at record territory. Oil has cooled dramatically from its panic levels, but it is not back to normal. WTI is still around the low-$90s, while Brent remains in the upper-$90s. That is relief pricing, not peace pricing.

And that distinction matters.

There is still no final deal. The U.S. carried out defensive strikes in southern Iran even as negotiations continued, and officials are still talking in terms of “days,” not “done.” Depending on which source you trust, there may be a framework forming around reopening the Strait, easing sanctions, and dealing with Iran’s enriched uranium. But the key issues are not resolved until they are resolved in practice: tankers moving freely, mines cleared, insurance costs falling, and both sides actually honoring the terms.

That is why Tuesday’s rally setup feels both understandable and dangerous.

The market is tired of the war. It wants a clean ending. It wants oil lower, inflation pressure fading, the dollar softer, and the Fed eventually able to ease if the economy weakens. That story is powerful because it gives every asset class something to like: stocks get relief, oil loses the crisis premium, metals stabilize, and bonds get a break from inflation fear.

But the problem is obvious: Wall Street is once again pricing the best version of a deal before the deal is signed.

If the Strait reopens cleanly and the uranium issue is handled in a way both sides can sell politically, then the rally can continue. But if the “deal” turns into another temporary pause, conditional access arrangement, or rolling extension, the market may have to give back some of this optimism quickly.

The defensive strikes are the warning label. If negotiations were truly in the final, stable stage, markets wouldn’t also be digesting fresh military action. The fact that both can happen at once—strikes and talks, threats and optimism, oil down and risk assets up—shows just how headline-driven this tape has become.

Metals are telling the same story in a quieter way. Gold and silver are trying to stabilize, but they are not exploding higher. They are caught between two forces: relief that the worst oil shock may be fading, and concern that inflation, currency confidence, and policy credibility are still unresolved. If the dollar rolls over and oil stays elevated, the metals bid can come back quickly. If yields rise again, they remain vulnerable.

So Tuesday’s question is not whether markets can rally. They clearly can.

The question is whether this rally is built on peace—or merely on exhaustion with war.

A real deal would deserve a rally. A rumor deserves caution.

 

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