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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                November 7, 2025                           *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Recession Without Prints

How to read the tape when the data go dark.

The shutdown has turned October’s dashboard into black glass. We’re five-plus weeks with no jobs report, no retail sales, and a dimmer view on everything that usually anchors a macro call. In the vacuum, price is the signal—and the signals aren’t benign.

First, the long end didn’t buy the cut. The 10-year is back north of ~4.1%, reminding everyone that a 25 bp trim doesn’t guarantee looser financial conditions when term premium and supply do the heavy lifting. Second, funding stress keeps flashing: banks just set a record draw on the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility into month-end. Third, households are telling you what the missing reports can’t—consumer sentiment sank to the mid-50s in October, a level historically associated with soft spending and rising layoff anxiety.

Metals have cooled from their vertical sprint but are holding near the breakout shelf (gold orbiting ~$4,000). That’s not “euphoria”; it’s insurance—bid on dips, not headlines. Meanwhile, a handful of mega-caps still levitate the indexes, but breadth has thinned and leadership narrowed. That combination—tight household mood, sticky long yields, and record thirst for overnight liquidity—is how recessions start to feel before they show up in the stats.

What would confirm the turn

  • A sloppy Treasury auction that pushes the 10-year higher even as short rates fall.
  • Credit finally blinking: wider HY spreads that stick beyond a day.
  • The first post-shutdown labor print revealing job losses or revisions that rewrite the “resilient” narrative.

What would delay it

  • A cleaner auction slate and firmer risk appetite outside mega-cap tech.
  • A quick fade in SRF usage as quarter-end cash hoarding unwinds.
  • A labor print that’s merely soft, not scary—keeping the market in “ease now, worry later” mode.

Bottom line: In a data blackout, the tape is your economist. Higher long yields after a cut, record repo taps, and depressed sentiment aren’t a recession call by themselves—but together they’re a map. Follow it until the numbers come back.

    

 

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