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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* March 18,
2026 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web address:
http://www.fiendbear.com
*
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Fiend Commentary
================
After the
chaos of late January and the war-driven whiplash of early March, markets are
trying to find something they can lean on. For now, that “something” is the
belief that oil won’t spiral—and that the worst-case scenarios in the Strait
will be avoided long enough for traders to refocus on the economy and the Fed.
But the
price action underneath the surface is sending a more complicated message.
Gold and
silver are holding—but not rallying cleanly
Gold is
still battling around the $5,000 line, and silver is trying to keep its footing
near $80. That sounds calm, but it isn’t. It’s the market’s version of a
tug-of-war: buyers are defending levels, sellers are fading every rally, and
neither side is yet strong enough to force a decisive breakout.
That is
typical behavior after a violent move. The important part is that the metals
have not collapsed back into their pre-breakout ranges. They’re behaving like
markets that have been shocked and are now digesting the move—base-building,
not surrendering.
The miners,
however, tell a different story. They’ve been hit hard for weeks and are
lagging the physical metals. That divergence matters because miners are the
high-beta version of the trade. When investors get nervous, they often keep the
“insurance” (gold) and sell the “risk asset” (miners). Miners also carry extra
baggage: operating costs, financing risk, political risk, and now the obvious
one—energy costs.
If oil stays
elevated, miners can actually get squeezed even if the metals hold up, because
production and transport costs rise along with diesel and power prices.
Oil is off
the highs—but the underlying risk hasn’t disappeared
Oil backing
away from the $100 level is giving stocks breathing room, but the market may be
drawing too much comfort from the decline. The main reason prices have eased
isn’t that the Strait has reopened cleanly or that the conflict has been
resolved. It’s that reserve releases, headlines about “stabilization,” and the
natural post-spike digestion have capped the tape.
The question
is: how long can that cap hold if the war drags on?
Strategic
reserve releases can buy time. They can smooth panic. They can calm futures
markets. What they cannot do is permanently replace daily shipping flows
through a chokepoint if tanker traffic remains uncertain. If the Strait
situation turns into a stalemate—no definitive closure, but persistent
danger—then the market may settle into a “higher for longer” oil regime even
without the apocalyptic $150 headline.
And that’s
the problem: “only $95–$105” oil would still represent a huge jump from
last year’s pricing environment. It would be enough to:
The macro
backdrop is already soft
This is the
part markets keep trying to ignore: even before the conflict, the economy was
showing signs of slippage. If job growth is weakening and consumers are already
stressed, then “higher for longer oil” is not an inconvenience—it’s accelerant.
That’s where
the Fed dilemma returns. Rate cuts are not imminent, but if the economy weakens
further the pressure to ease will rise. At the same time, if inflation rises
because energy stays elevated, easing becomes harder to defend. That’s a
classic trap, and it tends to create more volatility, not less.
What to
watch next
If you want
to know whether this is a temporary pause or the start of another leg of
instability, watch three things:
1.
Does oil keep fading despite no real improvement in shipping
risk?
If it can’t, then the market is not pricing the real supply risk yet.
2.
Do gold and silver hold their floors when stocks wobble?
If metals stay firm during equity weakness, that’s a sign the “insurance bid”
remains alive.
3.
Do miners stop underperforming?
If miners keep lagging badly, it suggests investors still don’t trust the
durability of the rally—and they’re worried about costs, liquidity, and risk
appetite.
For now, the
market is trying to normalize the extraordinary. But normalization requires
real improvement, not just a lull in headlines. If the Strait remains uncertain
and the conflict stretches into weeks, oil may not need to explode to change
the economic story. It only needs to stay elevated long enough for households
and businesses to feel it.
And when
that happens, markets will have to stop treating this as a temporary shock and
start treating it as a new baseline.
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