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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* May 12,
2026 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web
address: http://www.fiendbear.com *
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Fiend Commentary
================
Monday was
one of those market days that looks bullish on the surface and deeply strange
underneath.
The S&P
500 and Nasdaq set new records again. The Dow moved higher and remains within
sight of 50,000. Small caps joined the move. Silver surged, miners caught a
bid, and oil pushed back toward the danger zone. At the same time, long bond
yields remained uncomfortably close to the 5% line.
That is not
a normal “risk-on” backdrop. It is a market trying to price prosperity,
inflation, war uncertainty, and hard-asset demand all at once.
The
strangest part is not that stocks went up. Stocks can rally on earnings,
buybacks, momentum, and the belief that the worst-case war outcome has been
avoided. The strangest part is that they are doing it while oil is still near
$100, the Strait remains a problem, and the bond market is refusing to relax.
Wall Street
seems to be treating the Middle East conflict as a manageable inconvenience
rather than a macro shock. The current market belief appears to be:
That is a
very optimistic stack of assumptions.
The silver
rally is worth watching because it says the appetite for speculation has not
gone away—it has simply moved around. Silver’s sharp jump looks less like pure
fear and more like a hard-asset momentum trade returning after the late-January
and March shakeouts. When silver and miners surge on the same day stocks hit
records, investors are not hiding. They are reaching for anything that can
benefit from reflation, scarcity, or liquidity.
That may be
bullish in the short run, but it also tells you risk appetite is still
extremely aggressive.
The real
referee remains the bond market. The 30-year yield hovering near 5% is not just
a number for bond desks. It is the cost of mortgages, corporate borrowing,
long-term government financing, and equity valuation. If the long bond breaks
convincingly above 5% and holds there, the market’s favorite stories become
harder to tell. Future earnings get discounted more heavily. Debt service becomes more painful. And “eventual Fed help” becomes less
convincing if inflation is still being fed by oil, tariffs, and supply-chain
disruptions.
That is
where the contradiction lives. Stocks are trading as if the future is bright.
Bonds are trading as if the future is expensive.
Oil is the
other piece that refuses to fit neatly into the rally. A quick drop from panic
highs helped stocks breathe, but oil near $100 is still a major inflation
impulse if it lingers. The market keeps acting as if elevated crude is
temporary. Maybe it is. But if it becomes the new operating environment for
another month or two, the damage will start showing up in freight, food,
margins, consumer confidence, and inflation expectations.
That is why
the next inflation data matters so much. If inflation stays hot while stocks
are hitting records and long yields are pressing higher, Wall Street may have
to confront the possibility that “good news” is being priced too aggressively.
For now, the
bulls are still in control. The rally is real. The records are real. The
momentum is real.
But so are
the risks.
The market
is not pricing perfection because everything is perfect. It is pricing
perfection because investors believe the bad news can be managed, delayed, or
ignored. That works until one of those assumptions
breaks.
And with oil
near $100, the 30-year near 5%, and silver suddenly acting like a rocket again,
the fuse is still lit.
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