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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 July 1, 2026                              *

*                                                                           *

*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
================

June and Q2: Records on Top, Wreckage Underneath

The second quarter ended with the Dow at a record, which is exactly the kind of headline Wall Street loves. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also had huge quarterly gains, and at a glance it looked like the market had absorbed war, inflation, oil shocks, rate-hike fears, crypto weakness, and a metals crash without losing its footing.

But June was not a clean victory lap. It was one of the strangest split markets of the year.

The Dow closed June at a record 52,319.20, while the S&P 500 finished at 7,499.36 and the Nasdaq at 26,213.72. For the quarter, the Dow gained about 13%, the S&P 500 gained 14.9%, and the Nasdaq surged 21.4%, its best quarter since 2020. That sounds like a broad triumph. It wasn’t. Reuters also noted that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both posted losses for the month of June, even as the Dow finished with another record. That tells you the story: Q2 was enormous, but June itself was much more ragged underneath.

The real engine was not “the market.” It was AI, semiconductors, and speculative growth. The semiconductor complex continued to behave like a mania, with names like Micron and other AI-linked stocks carrying the mood. When those stocks worked, the indexes looked unbeatable. When they wobbled, the whole tape suddenly looked thin.

Meanwhile, the former winners of the year were punished brutally.

Gold and silver had a terrible quarter. Gold futures fell 13.4% in Q2 to about $4,022.90, their worst quarter since 2013. Silver fell even harder, down 20.4% to about $59.48, its worst quarter since early 2020 and its largest monthly drop since 2011. This was a complete reversal from the early-year metals mania. In January and February, gold and silver looked like the market’s verdict on inflation, debt, and Fed credibility. By June, the market had flipped the script: a stronger dollar and rising rate-hike expectations made metals look like yesterday’s trade.

Crypto told a similar story. Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks broke down badly, and the whole “digital asset treasury” model started looking less like genius and more like leveraged financial engineering. The market may not have capitulated yet, but the “sure thing” psychology has clearly cracked. That matters because crypto often acts as the first leak in the speculative plumbing.

Oil was the most surprising move of all. After months of fear over the Strait of Hormuz, Brent ended the quarter near $72.92, down more than 20% in June and about 38% for the quarter. U.S. crude fell about 31% for the quarter. That is an enormous move. It either means the market believes the Middle East energy shock is fading fast, or it is sniffing out something darker: weaker global demand and a possible oil glut after the temporary shipping squeeze released stranded supply.

The dollar was the quiet winner. It posted its fourth straight quarterly rise and gained as the market moved from “rate cuts are coming” to “rate hikes may be needed.” That shift helped crush metals and supported the idea that Warsh’s Fed may at least talk tough enough to keep inflation expectations in check.

Bonds were less dramatic than metals or crypto, but they did not exactly deliver comfort. Treasury yields finished the quarter elevated, with the 10-year around the mid-4% area and markets increasingly pricing at least one Fed hike this year. In other words, bonds did not panic, but they did not endorse the stock-market party either. The long end is still saying inflation and financing costs matter.

That brings us to the economy.

The data remain mixed. May PCE inflation rose 4.1% year-over-year, with core PCE up 3.4%, leaving inflation far above the Fed’s target. Consumer confidence improved slightly in June as gasoline prices fell, but labor-market perceptions worsened, with the share of consumers saying jobs are “hard to get” rising to 22.5%, the highest level since January 2021. Job openings rose to 7.594 million, but hiring fell for a second straight month. That is not collapse, but it is not clean strength either.

So what did June really say?

It said the market can still rally on the biggest names while other assets fall apart.

It said investors are willing to believe falling oil will fix the inflation problem, even though core inflation remains too high.

It said the dollar and rate-hike expectations can crush metals even while the federal debt and deficits remain enormous.

It said crypto can crack without immediately dragging down equities.

It said the Dow can hit a record even while the market underneath looks fragmented.

That is the key word: fragmented.

Stocks finished Q2 looking triumphant. Metals finished it humbled. Crypto finished it damaged. Oil finished it confused. The dollar finished it strong. Bonds finished it skeptical. The economy finished it mixed. Inflation finished it very much alive.

That is not a unified bull market. It is a market of conflicting signals.

The bullish version for July is obvious: oil keeps falling, inflation eases, AI earnings stay strong, the Fed holds off on immediate hikes, and stocks grind higher.

The bearish version is just as obvious: inflation remains sticky, the Fed’s jawboning becomes harder to sustain, crypto weakness spreads, metals fail to stabilize, and the AI trade finally runs out of new buyers.

June ended with records. But records are not the same thing as health.

The second quarter was a huge win for the indexes. The rest of the market was far less convincing.

Index  06/30/26  Mn Chng  Mnth %  Yr Chng  Year % 2K Chg*   2000 %

------ --------  -------  ------  -------  ------ --------  ------

Dow30  52319.20  1286.74    2.5%  4255.91    8.9% 40822.08  355.1%

Trans  21749.79   339.48    1.6%  4392.60   25.3% 18772.59  630.5%

Utils   1146.08    36.51    3.3%    78.01    7.3%   862.72  304.5%

S&P500  7499.36   -80.70   -1.1%   653.86    9.6%  6030.11  410.4%

Nasdaq 26213.72  -758.90   -2.8%  2971.73   12.8% 22144.41  544.2%

NYSE   23834.23   542.06    2.3%  1830.30    8.3%     N/A     N/A

Rus2000 3024.37   105.03    3.6%   542.46   21.9%  2519.62  499.2%

Amex    7759.34  -725.17   -8.5%   892.55   13.0%  6890.60  793.2%

Val Lne13891.76   383.17    2.8%  1677.19   13.7% 12865.96 1254.2%

30Yr Tr   49.00    -0.90    1.8%     0.60   -1.2%   -15.80   24.4%

Bnk Idx  181.30    11.88    7.0%    17.12   10.4%   104.30  135.5%

MSH 35 10298.39   532.91    5.5%  2973.81   40.6%  9377.61 1018.4%

Housing  726.83    70.44   10.7%    62.54    9.4%     N/A     N/A

Airline   82.75     9.83   13.5%    12.50   17.8%   -70.72  -46.1%

Retail  7350.89  -600.18   -7.5%   159.26    2.2%     N/A     N/A

         

* Change since 12/31/1999

 

Winners-Losers              14-16          21-9

Dow Industrials    Jun-30  Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg Year %

---------------    ------  ------ ------ ------ ------

Intel              139.63   24.95  21.8% 102.73 278.4%  

Caterpillar       1064.90  189.03  21.6% 494.45  86.7%  

Travelers          330.12   38.23  13.1%  42.32  14.7%  

Johnson-Johnson    253.97   28.64  12.7%  49.29  24.1%  

Home Depot         352.68   35.54  11.2%  13.41   4.0%              

JP Morgan Chase    327.33   28.02   9.4%   8.19   2.6%  

UnitedHealth       415.63   35.32   9.3%  89.93  27.6%  

Merck              128.50    9.78   8.2%  24.76  23.9%  

Amgen              362.12   25.33   7.5%  39.50  12.2%  

American Exprss    338.25   21.78   6.9% -29.72  -8.1%  

Minn Mining Mnf    161.91    8.78   5.7%   3.35   2.1%  

Visa               343.09   16.73   5.1%  -6.17  -1.8%  

Coca-Cola           81.27    2.26   2.9%  12.28  17.8%  

Procter-Gamble     146.64    3.08   2.1%   5.40   3.8%  

Goldman Sachs     1011.37  -14.19  -1.4% 140.81  16.2%  

Wal-Mart           113.26   -2.49  -2.2%   2.29   2.1%  

Cisco              117.46   -2.96  -2.5%  41.25  54.1%  

McDonald's         270.31   -8.89  -3.2% -31.57 -10.5%  

Disney              96.25   -5.58  -5.5% -17.52 -15.4%  

IBM                281.21  -16.59  -5.6% -11.17  -3.8%  

Honeywell          223.90  -13.96  -5.9%  30.83  16.0%  

Boeing             216.47  -14.68  -6.4%  -0.65  -0.3%  

Apple              289.36  -22.70  -7.3%  18.00   6.6%  

Chevron-Texaco     165.76  -16.70  -9.2%  16.20  10.8%  

Nike                41.05   -5.18 -11.2% -21.68 -34.6%  

Verizon Comm        42.34   -5.47 -11.4%   2.90   7.4%  

Amazon             238.34  -32.30 -11.9%   7.52   3.3%  

Microsoft          373.02  -77.22 -17.2%-108.46 -22.5%  

SalesForce.com     156.66  -34.44 -18.0%-106.91 -40.6%  

Dow                 27.36   -6.39 -18.9%   4.49  19.6%  

 

 

                            Fiend's Prime-25©

                            -----------------

                                                      

Winners-Losers               11-14            16-9

    Company        Jun-30   Mn Chg   Month  Yr Chg Year %

---------------   -------  -------  ------ ------- ------

Oracle             146.55   -79.23  -35.1%  -47.17 -24.3%  

Palantir Tech      116.67   -39.87  -25.5%  -61.08 -34.4%  

Microsoft          373.02   -77.22  -17.2% -109.50 -22.7%  

Netflix             71.40   -14.62  -17.0%  -22.36 -23.8%  

Broadcom           377.75   -69.02  -15.4%   32.37   9.4%  

Amazon             238.34   -32.30  -11.9%    7.52   3.3%  

Meta (FB)          563.29   -69.22  -10.9%  -96.24 -14.6%  

Apple Comp         289.36   -22.70   -7.3%   17.75   6.5%  

Google             353.33   -23.10   -6.1%   39.75  12.7%  

Exxon Mobil        136.72    -8.54   -5.9%   17.18  14.4%  

NVIDIA             200.09   -11.05   -5.2%   13.60   7.3%  

Tesla              420.60   -15.19   -3.5%  -29.12  -6.5%  

Costco             935.47   -20.85   -2.2%   75.55   8.8%  

Walmart            113.26    -2.49   -2.2%    2.08   1.9%  

Mastercard         513.60    19.62    4.0%  -55.45  -9.7%  

Visa Inc.          343.09    16.73    5.1%   -6.90  -2.0%  

Berkshire Hath     500.39    25.91    5.5%   -2.26  -0.4%  

Eli Lilly         1199.43    94.43    8.5%  126.54  11.8%  

JP Morgan Chase    327.33    28.02    9.4%    8.19   2.6%  

Bank of America     56.98     5.38   10.4%    2.29   4.2%  

Home Depot         352.68    35.54   11.2%   10.87   3.2%  

AMD                580.91    64.81   12.6%  366.75 171.3%  

Johnson-Johnson    253.97    28.64   12.7%   48.11  23.4%  

Abbvie             251.64    33.92   15.6%   26.84  11.9%  

Micron Tech       1154.29   183.29   18.9%  869.00 304.6%

 

Prime-25©        34674.96 -2024.78   -5.5% 1730.58   5.3%

 

 

RNK      Company         (Bil)   P/E   Yield Symb      Sector

--- -----------------   ------ ------- ----- ----   ---------------

 1. NVIDIA              $4862   40.83  0.02% NVDA    Technology   

 2. Google              $4270   32.69  0.24% GOOG    Communication

 3. Apple               $4254   36.63  0.36% AAPL    Technology   

 4. Microsoft           $2772   23.34  0.93% MSFT    Technology   

 5. Amazon              $2557   33.24  0.00% AMZN    Consumer     

 6. Broadcom            $1791   73.64  0.66% AVGO    Technology   

 7. Tesla               $1577  389.44  0.00% TSLA    Consumer     

 8. Meta (FB)           $1425   23.98  0.37% META    Communication

 9. Micron Tech         $1304   54.50  0.04% MU      Technology   

10. Eli Lilly           $1133   53.10  0.52% LLY     Healthcare   

11. Berkshire Hath      $1081   16.12  0.00% BRK-B   Financial    

12. AMD                  $947  220.04  0.00% AMD     Technology   

13. Walmart              $903   41.49  0.84% WMT     Consumer     

14. JP Morgan Chase      $884   15.68  1.80% JPM     Financial    

15. Visa Inc.            $654   32.52  0.73% V       Financial    

16. Johnson-Johnson      $612   29.36  2.05% JNJ     Healthcare   

17. Exxon Mobil          $571   20.44  2.95% XOM     Energy       

18. Mastercard           $456   31.09  0.63% MA      Financial    

19. Abbvie               $445  106.63  2.71% ABBV    Healthcare   

20. Oracle               $422   26.31  1.36% ORCL    Technology   

21. Costco               $415   48.65  0.56% COST    Consumer     

22. Bank of America      $409   14.14  1.93% BAC     Financial    

23. Home Depot           $351   24.77  2.62% HD      Consumer     

24. Netflix              $301   23.11  0.00% NFLX    Communication

25. Palantir             $279  185.19  0.00% PLTR    Technology   

    

     Prime-25©         $34,675   34.20  0.50%                    

 

Changes for 2026:

 

PLTR Palantir, AMD, and MU Micron Tech were added while

CRM SalesForce, PG Procter-Gamble, and UNH UnitedHealth were removed.

 

 

                                    Currencies

                                    ----------

                                                   

Crrncy   Jun-30  Mn Chg  Mnth %   Yr Chg  Year %  2K Chg*  2000 %

------  -------  ------  ------   ------  ------  -------  ------

Pound    132.61   -1.94   -1.4%    -1.87   -1.4%   -29.29  -18.1%

SwFrnc   123.70   -4.34   -3.4%    -2.30   -1.8%    60.23   94.9%

Euro     114.22   -2.38   -2.0%    -3.10   -2.6%    12.61   12.4%

Yen       61.53   -1.26   -2.0%    -2.24   -3.5%   -37.39  -37.8%

US Dlr   101.19    2.28    2.3%     2.87    2.9%    -0.23   -0.2%

               

    

                                    Commodities

                                    -----------

 Aug                                             

Cmmdty    Jun-30    Mn Chg  Mnth %   Yr Chg  Year % 2K Chng*  2000 %

------ ---------   -------  ------  -------  ------ --------  ------

Gold   $4,038.50  -$554.50  -12.1% -$401.90   -9.1%$3,748.90 1294.5%

XAU       317.71    -54.76  -14.7%   -24.57   -7.2%   249.74  367.4%

Oil       $69.50   -$15.80  -18.5%   $12.46   21.8%   $43.90  171.5%

XOI      2343.65   -127.95   -5.2%   486.89   26.2%  1840.65  365.9%

CRB       353.61    -26.84   -7.1%    54.83   18.4%   148.47   72.4%

 

                                                                                          

                                  Foreign Markets       

                                  ---------------

                                

Exchng   Jun-30   Mnth Chg  Mnth % Year Chg  Year % 2K Chng*  2000 %

------ ---------  --------  ------ --------  ------ --------  ------

TSX     34856.99     87.85    0.3%  3144.23    9.9% 26443.24  314.3%

IPC     66966.68  -1621.07   -2.4%  2658.39    4.1% 59836.80  839.2%

BVSP   172024.00  -1763.50   -1.0% 10898.60    6.8%154932.00  906.5%

FTSE    10497.12     87.84    0.8%   565.74    5.7%  3566.92   51.5%

CAC-40   8403.99    220.65    2.7%   254.49    3.1%  2445.67   41.0%

DAX     24995.81   -108.89   -0.4%   505.40    2.1% 18037.67  259.2%

Swiss   14193.92    651.26    4.8%   926.44    7.0%  6623.82   87.5%

Nikkei  70062.32   3732.82    5.6% 19722.84   39.2% 51127.98  270.0%

HngSng  22881.02  -2301.37   -9.1% -2749.52  -10.7%  5918.92   34.9%

AllOrd   8986.20     21.20    0.2%   -32.60   -0.4%  5833.70  185.0%

 

* Change since 12/31/1999    

 

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