*****************************************************************************
* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* June 1,
2026 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web address:
http://www.fiendbear.com
*
*****************************************************************************
Fiend Commentary
================
May
2026: The Market Bought the Happy Ending
May was one
of the strangest “bullish” months in recent memory.
Stocks
surged to new records. The Dow finished above 51,000. The S&P 500 and
Nasdaq closed at fresh highs. Tech stocks went vertical again, led by the AI
names. And yet the backdrop was anything but clean: inflation rose, GDP
weakened, consumer sentiment collapsed to record lows, oil remained elevated,
the Strait of Hormuz stayed disrupted, and the Fed was left with fewer good
choices than ever.
That is the
real story of May: Wall Street didn’t rally because the problems disappeared.
It rallied because investors decided the problems would be solved later.
The market
bought the ending before the ending arrived.
The stock
market had a spectacular month
By the final
trading day, the S&P 500 was up about 5% for May and had posted its ninth
straight weekly gain. The Dow closed above 51,000. The Nasdaq finished near
27,000. Tech was the star again, with AI-related stocks carrying the tape and
the S&P technology sector up more than 15% for the month.
That is not
a normal rally. That is a chase.
The Nasdaq’s
move over the past two months has the feel of a blow-off phase: sharp, narrow,
emotionally driven, and fueled by the fear of missing out. AI remains the
justification, but the price action is now doing a lot of the talking. When
stocks rise almost regardless of inflation, war, oil, or rates, it’s a sign
that positioning and momentum have become as important as fundamentals.
The war
became “bullish” because traders priced the aftermath
This is the
bizarre part: the U.S.-Iran war, the disruption of one of the world’s most
important oil corridors, and the spike in energy uncertainty somehow became
bullish for U.S. stocks.
How? Because
Wall Street decided to look past the disruption and buy the expected
resolution.
The market’s
logic was simple:
That is a
lot of “eventually.”
If those
things happen in the right order, the rally makes sense. But if the Strait
takes months to normalize, if insurance and shipping costs remain high, if
energy prices stay elevated, or if inflation doesn’t cool fast enough, then
May’s rally may look less like foresight and more like impatience.
Oil fell,
but it did not return to normal
Oil did come
down sharply in May. Brent suffered one of its biggest monthly drops since 2020
as hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal grew. That was a major reason stocks rallied.
But context
matters. Oil did not collapse back to last year’s comfort zone. It merely fell
from panic levels to elevated levels. The difference is important.
If oil is no
longer $120 but remains in the $80s or $90s, that is still a very different
economy from one built around $60–$70 oil. It still affects freight, diesel,
food, travel, utilities, margins, and consumer psychology.
The market
may be treating lower oil as an all-clear. It might be more accurate to call it
a reprieve.
Inflation
moved the wrong way
The April
PCE report showed inflation moving further away from the Fed’s 2% target.
Headline PCE was up 3.8% year-over-year, while core PCE remained above 3%.
That is not
a small problem. It is especially uncomfortable because it occurred alongside
weaker growth and very low consumer sentiment.
Wall Street
has been eager to call the energy-related inflation temporary. That may become
the official story again. But “temporary” is a word, not a policy. If oil stays
elevated long enough, it filters into the real economy. If businesses pass
costs through, consumers feel it. If consumers feel it, sentiment and spending
eventually react.
The consumer
is not celebrating
This is the
major disconnect.
The stock
market is acting like the economy is thriving. Consumers are acting like the
economy is breaking them.
The
University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 44.8 in May, an
all-time low. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index also slipped,
and reports showed many households cutting back because of high prices.
This is what
a two-track economy looks like. Asset owners see record portfolios. Non-asset
owners see higher bills. Investors see AI optimism. Consumers see gas,
groceries, insurance, rent, and electricity.
That split
can last for a while, but it creates political and economic pressure.
Eventually, weak sentiment either improves because prices ease—or it shows up
in spending.
The Fed is
boxed in
The Fed’s
problem is now obvious.
Inflation is
too high to justify easy rate cuts. Growth is too weak to comfortably hike. Oil
is too elevated to ignore. Consumer sentiment is too ugly to dismiss. And the
balance sheet is no longer shrinking the way it was.
That’s why
the bond market matters so much. The 30-year yield flirted with 5% again in
May. Long rates remain the market’s way of saying: “We are not convinced
inflation and deficits are under control.”
If the long
bond breaks higher in June, stocks may have a much harder time ignoring it.
June:
melt-up first, reality check later?
My base case
for June is straightforward:
The rally
can continue early in the month if peace headlines keep improving and oil keeps
drifting lower. A true reopening of the Strait would probably spark another
wave of buying and could produce the final melt-up phase in tech.
But the risk
of a reversal grows as June progresses.
The market
is now priced for a near-perfect path:
That’s a
narrow bridge.
The most
likely catalyst for trouble is not necessarily the war itself. It may be the
economic data. If June brings another hot inflation print, another weak growth
report, or another ugly consumer reading, investors may start asking whether
May pulled too much optimism forward.
And if the
Fed turns more hostile to inflation—or if the bond market forces the issue with
higher long rates—the tech blow-off could quickly turn into a reset.
Bottom line
May was a
huge month for stocks, but not because the economy was healthy. It was a huge
month because investors bought the best possible version of the future.
Maybe
they’re right. Maybe the war ends cleanly, oil falls, inflation fades, and AI
earnings justify the price.
But if the
summer brings sticky inflation, higher yields, a still-strained consumer, and a
Fed that can’t cut, then May may be remembered as the month Wall Street
celebrated too early.
Records are
real. So are risks.
And right
now, the market is treating one as permanent and the other as temporary.
May 2026
Index 05/29/26
Mn Chng Mnth % Yr Chng
Year % 2K Chg* 2000 %
------
-------- ------- ------
------- ------ -------- ------
Dow30 51032.46
1380.32 2.8% 2969.17
6.2% 39535.34 343.9%
Trans 21410.31
616.79 3.0% 4053.12
23.4% 18433.11 619.1%
Utils 1109.57
-55.59 -4.8% 41.50
3.9% 826.21 291.6%
S&P500 7580.06
371.05 5.1% 734.56
10.7% 6110.81 415.9%
Nasdaq
26972.62 2080.31 8.4%
3730.63 16.1% 22903.31 562.8%
NYSE 23292.17
147.53 0.6% 1288.24
5.9% N/A N/A
Rus2000
2919.34 119.43 4.3%
437.43 17.6% 2414.59
478.4%
Amex 8484.51
-687.75 -7.5% 1617.72
23.6% 7615.77 876.6%
Val
Lne13508.59 286.67 2.2%
1294.02 10.6% 12482.79 1216.9%
30Yr
Tr 49.90 0.10
-0.2% 1.50 -3.1%
-14.90 23.0%
Bnk
Idx 169.42 -0.64
-0.4% 5.24 3.2%
92.42 120.0%
MSH
35 9765.48 1534.07
18.6% 2440.90 33.3%
8844.70 960.6%
Housing 656.39
-26.06 -3.8% -7.90
-1.2% N/A N/A
Airline 72.92
13.44 22.6% 2.67
3.8% -80.55 -52.5%
Retail 7951.07
10.39 0.1% 759.44
10.6% N/A N/A
*
Change since 12/31/1999
Winners-Losers 15-15 19-11
Dow
Industrials May-29 Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg Year %
--------------- ------
------ ------ ------ ------
Cisco 120.42 28.92
31.6% 43.39 56.3%
IBM 297.80 66.82
28.9% 1.59 0.5%
Intel 114.68 20.20
21.4% 77.78 210.8%
Apple 312.06 40.71
15.0% 40.20 14.8%
Goldman
Sachs 1025.56 101.79
11.0% 146.56 16.7%
Honeywell 237.86 23.53
11.0% 42.77 21.9%
Microsoft 450.24 42.46
10.4% -33.38 -6.9%
Merck 118.72 9.54
8.7% 13.46 12.8%
SalesForce.com 191.10
14.57 8.3% -73.81 -27.9%
Minn
Mining Mnf 153.13 6.61
4.5% -6.97 -4.4%
Nike 46.23 1.87
4.2% -17.48 -27.4%
UnitedHealth 380.31
9.83 2.7% 50.20
15.2%
Amazon 270.64 5.58
2.1% 39.82 17.3%
Boeing 231.15 2.12
0.9% 14.03 6.5%
Coca-Cola 79.01 0.25
0.3% 9.10 13.0%
Verizon
Comm 47.81 -0.22
-0.5% 7.08 17.4%
Visa 326.36 -3.48
-1.1% -24.35 -6.9%
Caterpillar 875.87
-14.24 -1.6% 303.00 52.9%
Disney 101.83 -1.92
-1.9% -11.94 -10.5%
Johnson-Johnson 225.33
-4.52 -2.0% 18.38
8.9%
American
Exprss 316.47 -6.58
-2.0% -53.48 -14.5%
Procter-Gamble 143.56
-3.53 -2.4% 0.25
0.2%
Amgen 336.79 -9.46
-2.7% 9.48 2.9%
Home
Depot 317.14 -11.66
-3.5% -26.96 -7.8%
Travelers 291.89 -13.25
-4.3% 1.83 0.6%
JP
Morgan Chase 299.31 -13.92
-4.4% -22.91 -7.1%
McDonald's 279.20
-14.39 -4.9% -26.43 -8.6%
Chevron-Texaco 182.46
-10.85 -5.6% 30.05
19.7%
Wal-Mart 115.75 -16.18 -12.3% 4.34
3.9%
Dow 33.75 -6.74 -16.6%
10.37 44.4%
Fiend's Prime-25©
-----------------
Winners-Losers 14-11 13-12
Company May-29
Mn Chg Month Yr Chg Year %
--------------- -------
------- ------ ------- ------
Micron
Tech 971.00 453.84
87.8% 685.71 240.4%
AMD 516.10 161.61
45.6% 301.94 141.0%
Oracle 225.78 64.39
39.9% 32.06 16.5%
Eli
Lilly 1105.00 170.40
18.2% 32.11 3.0%
Apple
Comp 312.06 40.71
15.0% 40.45 14.9%
Tesla 435.79 54.16
14.2% -13.93 -3.1%
Palantir
Tech 156.54 17.43
12.5% -21.21 -11.9%
Microsoft 450.24 42.46
10.4% -32.28 -6.7%
Broadcom 446.77 29.34
7.0% 101.39 29.4%
NVIDIA 211.14 11.57
5.8% 24.65 13.2%
Meta
(FB) 632.51 20.60
3.4% -27.02 -4.1%
Abbvie 217.72 6.40
3.0% -7.08 -3.1%
Amazon 270.64 5.58
2.1% 39.82 17.3%
Berkshire
Hath 474.48 0.88
0.2% -28.17 -5.6%
Visa
Inc. 326.36 -3.48
-1.1% -23.63 -6.8%
Google 376.43 -5.51
-1.4% 62.85 20.0%
Mastercard 493.98 -8.94
-1.8% -75.07 -13.2%
Johnson-Johnson 225.33
-4.52 -2.0% 19.47
9.5%
Bank
of America 51.60 -1.86
-3.5% -3.09 -5.7%
Home
Depot 317.14 -11.66
-3.5% -24.67 -7.2%
JP
Morgan Chase 299.31 -13.92
-4.4% -19.83 -6.2%
Costco 956.32 -58.21
-5.7% 96.40 11.2%
Exxon
Mobil 145.26 -9.07
-5.9% 25.72 21.5%
Netflix 86.02 -7.59
-8.1% -7.74 -8.3%
Walmart 115.75 -16.18
-12.3% 4.57 4.1%
Prime-25© 36699.74 2447.59
7.1% 3755.36 11.4%
RNK Company (Bil)
P/E Yield Symb Sector
---
----------------- ------ ------- -----
---- ---------------
1. NVIDIA $5131 43.09
0.02% NVDA Technology
2. Apple $4587 39.50
0.33% AAPL Technology
3. Google $4549 34.82
0.22% GOOG Communication
4. Microsoft $3345 28.18
0.77% MSFT Technology
5. Amazon $2904 37.75
0.00% AMZN Consumer
6. Broadcom $2118 87.09
0.56% AVGO Technology
7. Tesla $1634 403.51
0.00% TSLA Consumer
8. Meta (FB) $1600 26.93
0.33% META Communication
9. Micron Tech $1097
45.85 0.05% MU Technology
10.
Eli Lilly $1044 48.92
0.56% LLY Healthcare
11.
Berkshire Hath $1025 15.29
0.00% BRK-B Financial
12.
Walmart $923 42.40
0.82% WMT Consumer
13.
AMD $841 195.49
0.00% AMD Technology
14.
JP Morgan Chase $808 14.33
1.97% JPM Financial
15.
Oracle $650 40.54
0.89% ORCL Technology
16.
Visa Inc. $622 30.93
0.77% V Financial
17.
Exxon Mobil $607 21.71
2.78% XOM Energy
18.
Johnson-Johnson $543 26.05
2.31% JNJ Healthcare
19.
Mastercard $438 29.90
0.66% MA Financial
20.
Costco $425 49.73
0.54% COST Consumer
21.
Abbvie $385 92.25
3.13% ABBV Healthcare
22.
Palantir $374 248.48
0.00% PLTR Technology
23.
Bank of America $370 12.80
2.13% BAC Financial
24.
Netflix $362 27.84
0.00% NFLX Communication
25.
Home Depot $316 22.27
2.91% HD Consumer
Prime-25© $36,700 36.19
0.47%
Changes
for 2026:
PLTR
Palantir, AMD, and MU Micron Tech were added while
CRM
SalesForce, PG Procter-Gamble, and UNH UnitedHealth were removed.
Currencies
----------
Crrncy May-29
Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg
Year % 2K Chg* 2000 %
------ -------
------ ------ ------
------ ------- ------
Pound 134.55
-1.49 -1.1% 0.07
0.1% -27.35 -16.9%
SwFrnc 128.04
0.06 0.0% 2.04
1.6% 64.57 101.7%
Euro 116.60
-0.72 -0.6% -0.72
-0.6% 14.99 14.8%
Yen 62.79
-1.11 -1.7% -0.98
-1.5% -36.13 -36.5%
US
Dlr 98.91 0.85
0.9% 0.59 0.6%
-2.51 -2.5%
Commodities
-----------
Jun
Cmmdty May-29
Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg
Year % 2K Chng* 2000 %
------
--------- ------- ------ -------
------ -------- ------
Gold $4,560.50 -$69.10 -1.5%
$186.60 4.3%$4,270.90 1474.8%
XAU 372.47
14.26 4.0% 30.19
8.8% 304.5 448.0%
Oil $87.36 -$17.71 -16.9%
$30.35 53.2% $61.76
241.3%
XOI 2471.60 -151.54 -5.8%
614.84 33.1% 1968.60
391.4%
CRB 380.45
-14.66 -3.7% 81.67
27.3% 175.31 85.5%
Foreign
Markets
---------------
Exchng May-29
Mnth Chg Mnth % Year Chg Year % 2K Chng* 2000 %
------
--------- -------- ------ -------- ------ -------- ------
TSX 34769.14
804.81 2.4% 3056.38
9.6% 26355.39 313.2%
IPC 68587.75
640.54 0.9% 4279.46
6.7% 61457.87 862.0%
BVSP 173787.50-13530.10 -7.2% 12662.10 7.9%156695.50 916.8%
FTSE 10409.28
30.46 0.3% 477.90
4.8% 3479.08 50.2%
CAC-40 8183.34
68.50 0.8% 33.84
0.4% 2225.02 37.3%
DAX 25104.70
812.32 3.3% 614.29
2.5% 18146.56 260.8%
Swiss 13542.66
406.39 3.1% 275.18
2.1% 5972.56 78.9%
Nikkei 66329.50
7044.58 11.9% 15990.02 31.8% 47395.16 250.3%
HngSng 25182.39
-594.14 -2.3% -448.15
-1.7% 8220.29 48.5%
AllOrd 8965.00
77.40 0.9% -53.80
-0.6% 5812.50 184.4%
*
Change since 12/31/1999
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