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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT *

* June 22, 2026 *

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* e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com *

* web address: http://www.fiendbear.com *

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Fiend Commentary
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Ceasefire Limbo and Bubble Psychology

With Friday’s market closed for Juneteenth, investors had a long weekend to digest the same two stories that have defined this market for months: the Middle East remains unresolved, and Wall Street still wants to believe every risk eventually turns bullish.

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is back in “on again, off again” mode. Talks in Switzerland produced another roadmap toward a final agreement over the next 60 days, but the underlying gaps remain obvious. Iran wants export waivers, asset releases, and leverage over the Strait. The U.S. wants nuclear limits, maritime access, and a deal it can call a win. That is a wide bridge to cross.

The market reaction so far is cautious optimism rather than panic. Oil dropped sharply on reports of progress, with Brent back below $80 and WTI in the mid-$70s. That gives stock bulls the oxygen they wanted: lower oil, less immediate inflation pressure, and the hope that the war’s worst economic effects are fading.

But the key word is still “hope.”

The Strait remains the real issue. Iran may reopen it, close it again, threaten fees, or use access as a bargaining chip whenever talks stall. That means the global energy market may no longer be operating under the old assumption of free, reliable passage. Even if oil is down today, the market has learned that a single weekend headline can change everything.

That is why the rally still feels fragile. Stocks may look flat-to-firm heading into Monday, but the foundation is not clean. The Fed is now expected to hike in 2026, perhaps more than once, after Warsh’s first meeting signaled a tougher inflation posture. CME pricing has moved dramatically, with December hike odds near the high-80s according to recent Reuters reporting. That is a stunning shift from the rate-cut optimism that dominated earlier this year.

And yet, speculative appetite is still extreme.

SpaceX is the perfect example. After its explosive IPO, the stock has started to come back down to earth, falling more than 6% Thursday as the post-IPO frenzy cooled. But even after that drop, it remains far above its offer price and still carries one of the most aggressive valuations in market history. That doesn’t mean SpaceX is a bad company. It means investors have been willing to pay almost any price for a story big enough to capture their imagination.

The same psychology is alive in AI and chips. Micron is now up roughly 300% this year, and its coming earnings report is being treated as a pulse check for the entire AI infrastructure trade. The stock has traded above $1,000 and is being valued like the memory-chip shortage will last forever. Maybe the numbers justify more upside. But when stocks move this far, this fast, the risk is no longer just earnings disappointment. The risk is that the crowd stops believing perfection is guaranteed.

That’s the real theme heading into the new week: the market is separating into two worlds.

In one world, oil is falling, the war is being managed, AI earnings keep surprising, and rate hikes are just talk.

In the other world, the Strait remains a geopolitical weapon, inflation stays too high, the Fed is forced to defend credibility, and speculative bubbles are starting to wobble.

Both worlds are possible. Wall Street is still pricing the first. The bond market, metals, and parts of crypto have been warning about the second.

The next few weeks may tell us whether this is another successful dip-buying opportunity—or the point where “hope” starts losing to math.

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