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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* April 30,
2025 *
*
*
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web
address: http://www.fiendbear.com *
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Fiend Commentary
================
Consumer Confidence Craters: A Warning
Sign Ignored
In
April 2025, U.S. consumer confidence plummeted to its lowest level since May
2020, with the Conference Board's index dropping 7.9 points to 86.0. [1]
More
alarmingly, the Expectations Index, which gauges consumers' short-term outlook
for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell 12.5 points to 54.4—the lowest since October 2011 and well below the
recession threshold of 80. [1]
This
decline marks the fifth consecutive monthly drop in consumer sentiment,
reflecting growing pessimism about the economy's direction. [1] Notably, 32% of
consumers expect fewer jobs in the next six months, a level of concern not seen
since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. [2]
While
markets may appear stable, with the VIX hovering around 24, this calm belies
the underlying anxiety among consumers. The disconnect between market
performance and consumer sentiment suggests a fragile economic foundation.
Historically,
such sharp declines in consumer confidence have preceded economic downturns.
The current sentiment levels mirror those during the early stages of the
COVID-19 pandemic and the Great Recession, both periods of significant economic
contraction.
Ignoring
these warning signs could prove costly. Consumer spending drives approximately
70% of the U.S. economy; sustained pessimism can lead to reduced spending,
further slowing economic growth.
Policymakers
and investors should heed these signals. Relying solely on market indicators
without considering consumer sentiment risks overlooking the brewing storm
beneath the surface.
References:
[1]
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Apr-2025
[2]
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-tariffs-trade-war-04-29-2025/card/consumer-sentiment-plunges-on-tariff-concerns-survey-shows-i3sFE6Bxm0XSERmbPG9v