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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                November 21, 2025                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Verdict Friday

Thursday’s tape flipped from euphoria to exit signs: early AI-led gains vanished, the Dow reversed hard, and breadth went red. Metals slipped toward support and bitcoin cracked its shelf. The delayed September jobs print didn’t help—“better headline, worse unemployment” is exactly the kind of mixed signal that frays confidence.

So is this a breakdown or a rebound? Today should decide the character of the market into year-end.

What would say “breakdown”:

  • Weak breadth on strength: early green that fades with decliners > advancers.
  • Real yields firming while the dollar stays bid: multiple compression without relief.
  • Credit says no: high-yield spreads widen and don’t snap back by the close.
  • No bid in the laggards: small caps and cyclicals can’t catch a bounce.

What would say “rebound”:

  • Follow-through in the first 90 minutes: 2:1 (or better) upside breadth with volume behind it.
  • Long end calms: 10-year yield drifts lower, easing the squeeze on valuations.
  • Leadership rotation, not just NVDA: semis stabilize and defensives/financials participate.
  • Metals hold the shelves: gold steady above its breakout base, silver defends the big round number.

My base case: choppier tape into December—rallies get sold faster, air pockets show up more often. A durable rebound requires calm in rates and better breadth. Absent that, expect lower highs and a market that treats green as a chance to de-risk, not to chase.

Bottom line: Friday isn’t about the next headline; it’s about confirmation. If the bounce can’t broaden and rates don’t relax, yesterday’s reversal was the warning—not the outlier.

 

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