*****************************************************************************

*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                               February 2, 2026                            *

*                                                                           *

*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

*****************************************************************************

Fiend Commentary
================

January Whiplash: Metals Mania, a Dollar Scare, and the “Warsh Shock”

January 2026 will be remembered as the month the precious-metals market stopped acting like a “hedge” and started acting like a headline. Gold and silver didn’t just grind higher, they went vertical. Then, on the final trading day, the elevator doors opened and gravity returned.

The numbers tell the story better than adjectives ever could: gold printed a record high near $5,595/oz and silver tagged a record near $121/oz before both were hammered lower in a violent, late-month reversal. Even after that trapdoor drop, gold still finished January up roughly 13% and silver up roughly 17%. In other words, the “collapse” was real, but so was the underlying bid.

1.     THE METALS MOVE: THIS DIDN’T FEEL LIKE A HEDGE, IT FELT LIKE A RUN
When a market starts clearing psychological levels like they’re speed bumps, you’re no longer watching cautious accumulation. You’re watching urgency.

What changed in January wasn’t simply the price; it was the message the price action was sending:

  • Investors weren’t buying metals because inflation is “a little high.”
  • They were buying because confidence in the policy mix (rates, liquidity, deficits, and politics) looked increasingly unstable.
  • And they were buying because the currency and bond markets started to wobble at the same time.

That last point matters. A strong metals rally with a calm dollar is one thing. A strong metals rally while the dollar is under pressure and long rates refuse to behave is another. That combination whispers (and sometimes shouts) that the market is worried about the purchasing power of money itself, not just the monthly CPI print.

Then came the month-end gut punch. The late-January plunge had the fingerprints of a “positioning event” all over it: a crowded trade meeting a catalyst, leverage getting forced out, and profit-taking turning into liquidation. In bull markets, the biggest drops often happen after the most convincing breakouts, precisely because that’s when the most late money arrives.

2.     STOCKS: “BAD NEWS” COULDN’T STICK, UNTIL IT DID (A LITTLE)
Equities spent much of January acting like none of this was their problem.

The Dow flirted with the once-unthinkable 50,000 level, and the S&P 500 briefly crossed 7,000 intraday. That’s not the tape of an investor base that is worried. That’s the tape of a market trained to believe that policy will cushion every stumble.

And that’s exactly why the metals matter here. In a healthy, confident environment, you typically don’t get:

  • record equity levels,
  • a weakening dollar narrative,
  • and a parabolic metals move
    …all at once.

That cocktail suggests something deeper: the “wealth effect” is still alive in stocks, but the “store of value” trade is getting louder. When both are screaming at the same time, it usually means the market is betting on a familiar modern solution: easier financial conditions, even if the fundamentals are messy.

3.     THE ECONOMY: STALL SPEED JOBS, BUT NOT-COMFY INFLATION
January’s key economic backdrop was uncomfortable because it wasn’t clean. It was mixed in the worst way: softening labor signals, but inflation that refuses to neatly go away.

On jobs, the tone was clear: hiring is sluggish. Payroll growth was stuck around “stall speed,” with the unemployment rate still in the mid-4s and job creation increasingly narrow. That’s not a collapse, but it is a market that can be knocked off balance if downside surprises arrive in bunches.

On inflation, the problem is simple: the “2% world” still feels like a story people tell, not a destination we’re approaching at a steady pace. December CPI ran around the high-2s year over year, but the details were not exactly comforting (food was a notable pain point). Meanwhile producer prices were hot enough to revive a fear markets hate: that tariffs and supply frictions can re-ignite price pressures even as growth softens.

That’s the dreaded word markets don’t want to say out loud: stagflation risk. Not necessarily the 1970s, but the setup where policy choices become lose-lose: cut to support growth and risk inflation credibility, or hold tight to fight inflation and risk a sharper slowdown.

4.     THE “WARSH SHOCK”: A HAIL MARY FOR THE DOLLAR?
The month didn’t truly break until the final day, when President Trump’s decision to tap Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell hit the tape.

Why did that matter so much?

Because markets were drifting toward a very specific expectation: that the post-Powell Fed might become the easiest Fed imaginable. The idea was simple (and seductive): inflation is “tolerable,” growth is fragile, debt is enormous, and politics prefers stimulus. Therefore: cuts, liquidity, and eventually more balance-sheet help.

Warsh complicated that narrative. He’s widely viewed as a “safer” institutional pick than some alternatives, and investors quickly interpreted the choice as at least a partial attempt to stop the dollar from unraveling and to cool the perception of currency debasement. The immediate reaction was textbook: the dollar bounced, and the metals trade got hit hard.

But here’s the key question for February and beyond:
Was Friday the end of the metals story…or just the first real leverage flush in a much bigger trend?

If the structural drivers remain (high debt, political pressure for easier policy, inflation that won’t die, and global currency volatility), then one personnel decision can buy time, but it cannot permanently repeal math.

5.     WHAT JANUARY MEANS FOR FEBRUARY: WATCH THE “FOLLOW-THROUGH,” NOT THE HEADLINES
Here are the pressure points that matter now:

  • Can gold and silver stabilize after the late-month air pocket?
    If they base quickly and recover, it’s a sign the break was mostly forced selling, not a true change in conviction.
  • Does the dollar rebound turn into a trend, or fade again?
    If the “Sell America” narrative resumes, metals will likely find their feet faster than most expect.
  • Do long rates stay contained?
    If the 30-year starts behaving like it wants a 5% handle again, the stock market’s comfort level may crack, because higher long rates attack valuations and mortgage/credit affordability at the same time.
  • Will the next wave of economic data confirm slowdown?
    The market has been leaning on a “softening economy = dovish policy” reflex. That only works until inflation stops cooperating.

BOTTOM LINE
January was a warning shot wrapped inside a fireworks show. The world saw record prices in stocks and metals, a nervous currency backdrop, and a policy regime that is visibly in transition.

If you want the simplest interpretation: January was the month the market started to price “credibility risk” again. And credibility, once questioned, is not repaired with a single press conference or a single nomination.

 

Index  01/30/26  Mn Chng  Mnth %  Yr Chng  Year % 2K Chg*   2000 %

------ --------  -------  ------  -------  ------ --------  ------

Dow30  48892.47   829.18    1.7%   829.18    1.7% 37395.35  325.3%

Trans  18300.31   943.12    5.4%   943.12    5.4% 15323.11  514.7%

Utils   1091.27    23.20    2.2%    23.20    2.2%   807.91  285.1%

S&P500  6939.03    93.53    1.4%    93.53    1.4%  5469.78  372.3%

Nasdaq 23461.82   219.83    0.9%   219.83    0.9% 19392.51  476.6%

NYSE   22719.32   715.39    3.3%   715.39    3.3%     N/A     N/A

Rus2000 2613.74   131.83    5.3%   131.83    5.3%  2108.99  417.8%

Amex    7841.82   975.03   14.2%   975.03   14.2%  6973.08  802.7%

Val Lne12676.42   461.85    3.8%   461.85    3.8% 11650.62 1135.8%

30Yr Tr   48.70     0.30   -0.6%     0.30   -0.6%   -16.10   24.8%

Bnk Idx  167.62     3.44    2.1%     3.44    2.1%    90.62  117.7%

MSH 35  7426.04   101.46    1.4%   101.46    1.4%  6505.26  706.5%

Housing  688.56    24.27    3.7%    24.27    3.7%     N/A     N/A

Airline   72.61     2.36    3.4%     2.36    3.4%   -80.86  -52.7%

Retail  7507.99   316.36    4.4%   316.36    4.4%     N/A     N/A

          

* Change since 12/31/1999

 

Winners-Losers              19-11         19-11

Dow Industrials    Jan-30  Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg Year %

---------------    ------  ------ ------ ------ ------

Intel               46.47    9.57  25.9%   9.57  25.9%  

Dow                 27.55    4.17  17.8%   4.17  17.8%  

Honeywell          227.52   32.43  16.6%  32.43  16.6%  

Chevron-Texaco      176.9   24.49  16.1%  24.49  16.1%  

Caterpillar        657.36   84.49  14.7%  84.49  14.7%              

Johnson-Johnson    227.25   20.30   9.8%  20.30   9.8%  

Verizon Comm        44.52    3.79   9.3%   3.79   9.3%  

Home Depot         374.59   30.49   8.9%  30.49   8.9%  

Boeing             233.72   16.60   7.6%  16.60   7.6%  

Coca-Cola           74.81    4.90   7.0%   4.90   7.0%  

Wal-Mart           119.14    7.73   6.9%   7.73   6.9%  

Goldman Sachs      935.41   56.41   6.4%  56.41   6.4%  

Procter-Gamble     151.77    8.46   5.9%   8.46   5.9%  

Merck              110.27    5.01   4.8%   5.01   4.8%  

Amgen              341.88   14.57   4.5%  14.57   4.5%  

Amazon              239.3    8.48   3.7%   8.48   3.7%  

IBM                 306.7   10.49   3.5%  10.49   3.5%  

McDonald's            315    9.37   3.1%   9.37   3.1%  

Cisco               78.32    1.29   1.7%   1.29   1.7%  

Disney              112.8   -0.97  -0.9%  -0.97  -0.9%  

Travelers          284.51   -5.55  -1.9%  -5.55  -1.9%  

Nike                61.81   -1.90  -3.0%  -1.90  -3.0%  

Minn Mining Mnf    153.16   -6.94  -4.3%  -6.94  -4.3%  

Apple              259.48  -12.38  -4.6% -12.38  -4.6%  

American Exprss    352.17  -17.78  -4.8% -17.78  -4.8%  

JP Morgan Chase    305.89  -16.33  -5.1% -16.33  -5.1%  

Visa               321.83  -28.88  -8.2% -28.88  -8.2%  

Microsoft          430.29  -53.33 -11.0% -53.33 -11.0%  

UnitedHealth       286.93  -43.18 -13.1% -43.18 -13.1%  

SalesForce.com     212.29  -52.62 -19.9% -52.62 -19.9%  

 

 

                            Fiend's Prime-25©

                            -----------------

                                                      

Winners-Losers              11-14           11-14

    Company        Jan-30  Mn Chg   Month  Yr Chg Year %

---------------   ------- -------  ------ ------- ------

Palantir Tech      146.59  -31.16  -17.5%  -31.16 -17.5%  

Oracle             164.58  -30.33  -15.6%  -30.33 -15.6%  

Microsoft          430.29  -53.33  -11.0%  -53.33 -11.0%  

Netflix             83.49  -10.27  -11.0%  -10.27 -11.0%  

Visa Inc.          321.83  -28.88   -8.2%  -28.88  -8.2%  

Mastercard         538.79  -32.09   -5.6%  -32.09  -5.6%  

JP Morgan Chase    305.89  -16.33   -5.1%  -16.33  -5.1%  

Apple Comp         259.48  -12.38   -4.6%  -12.38  -4.6%  

Berkshire Hath     480.53  -22.12   -4.4%  -22.12  -4.4%  

Tesla              430.41  -19.31   -4.3%  -19.31  -4.3%  

Broadcom           331.30  -14.80   -4.3%  -14.80  -4.3%  

Eli Lilly         1037.15  -37.53   -3.5%  -37.53  -3.5%  

Bank of America     53.20   -1.80   -3.3%   -1.80  -3.3%  

Abbvie             223.01   -5.48   -2.4%   -5.48  -2.4%  

NVIDIA             191.13    4.63    2.5%    4.63   2.5%  

Amazon             239.30    8.48    3.7%    8.48   3.7%  

Walmart            119.14    7.73    6.9%    7.73   6.9%  

Google             338.53   24.73    7.9%   24.73   7.9%  

Meta (FB)          716.50   56.41    8.5%   56.41   8.5%  

Home Depot         374.59   30.49    8.9%   30.49   8.9%  

Costco             940.25   77.91    9.0%   77.91   9.0%  

Johnson-Johnson    227.25   20.30    9.8%   20.30   9.8%  

AMD                236.73   22.57   10.5%   22.57  10.5%  

Exxon Mobil        141.40   21.06   17.5%   21.06  17.5%  

Micron Tech        414.88  129.47   45.4%  129.47  45.4%

 

Prime-25©        32753.60  -57.05   -0.2%  -57.05  -0.2%

 

 

RNK      Company         (Bil)   P/E   Yield Symb      Sector

--- -----------------   ------ ------- ----- ----   ---------------

 1. NVIDIA              $4654   65.01  0.02% NVDA    Technology  

 2. Google              $4091   37.74  0.24% GOOG    Communication

 3. Apple               $3856   40.48  0.39% AAPL    Technology  

 4. Microsoft           $3197   33.25  0.77% MSFT    Technology  

 5. Amazon              $2551   39.04  0.00% AMZN    Consumer    

 6. Meta (FB)           $1800   27.94  0.29% META    Communication

 7. Broadcom            $1564  160.05  0.71% AVGO    Technology  

 8. Tesla               $1386  236.49  0.00% TSLA    Consumer    

 9. Berkshire Hath      $1036   12.80  0.00% BRK-B   Financial   

10. Eli Lilly            $982   85.93  0.56% LLY     Healthcare  

11. Walmart              $950   51.13  0.76% WMT     Consumer    

12. JP Morgan Chase      $841   15.02  1.81% JPM     Financial   

13. Visa Inc.            $624   32.74  0.73% V       Financial   

14. Exxon Mobil          $602   18.70  2.80% XOM     Energy      

15. Johnson-Johnson      $548   25.25  2.24% JNJ     Healthcare  

16. Mastercard           $484   37.78  0.56% MA      Financial   

17. Micron Tech          $469   39.44  0.11% MU      Technology  

18. Oracle               $467   38.63  1.15% ORCL    Technology  

19. Costco               $417   54.89  0.52% COST    Consumer    

20. Abbvie               $395   94.90  2.94% ABBV    Healthcare  

21. Bank of America      $394   15.88  1.99% BAC     Financial   

22. AMD                  $386  117.19  0.00% AMD     Technology  

23. Home Depot           $373   25.11  2.44% HD      Consumer    

24. Netflix              $354   34.93  0.00% NFLX    Communication

25. Palantir             $334  340.91  0.00% PLTR    Technology  

    

     Prime-25©         $32,754   38.12  0.51%                    

 

Changes for 2026:

 

PLTR Palantir, AMD, and MU Micron Tech were added while

CRM SalesForce, PG Procter-Gamble, and UNH UnitedHealth were removed.

 

 

                                    Currencies

                                    ----------

                                                   

Crrncy   Jan-30  Mn Chg  Mnth %   Yr Chg  Year %  2K Chg*  2000 %

------  -------  ------  ------   ------  ------  -------  ------

Pound    136.86    2.38    1.8%     2.38    1.8%   -25.04  -15.5%

SwFrnc   129.36    3.36    2.7%     3.36    2.7%    65.89  103.8%

Euro     118.51    1.19    1.0%     1.19    1.0%    16.90   16.6%

Yen       64.66    0.89    1.4%     0.89    1.4%   -34.26  -34.6%

US Dlr    96.99   -1.33   -1.4%    -1.33   -1.4%    -4.43   -4.4%

               

    

                                    Commodities

                                    -----------

 Feb                                             

Cmmdty    Jan-30   Mn Chg  Mnth %   Yr Chg  Year % 2K Chng*  2000 %

------ ---------  -------  ------  -------  ------ --------  ------

Gold   $4,713.90  $372.80    8.6%  $372.80    8.6%$4,424.30 1527.7%

XAU       382.33    40.05   11.7%    40.05   11.7%   314.36  462.5%

Oil/Mr    $65.21    $7.99   14.0%    $7.99   14.0%   $39.61  154.7%

XOI      2065.52   208.76   11.2%   208.76   11.2%  1562.52  310.6%

CRB       320.09    21.31    7.1%    21.31    7.1%   114.95   56.0%

 

                                                                                                     

                                  Foreign Markets       

                                  ---------------

                                

Exchng   Jan-30  Mnth Chg  Mnth % Year Chg  Year % 2K Chng*  2000 %

------ --------- --------  ------ --------  ------ --------  ------

TSX     31923.52   210.76    0.7%   210.76    0.7% 23509.77  279.4%

IPC     67598.95  3290.66    5.1%  3290.66    5.1% 60469.07  848.1%

BVSP   181363.90 20238.50   12.6% 20238.50   12.6%164271.90  961.1%

FTSE    10223.54   292.16    2.9%   292.16    2.9%  3293.34   47.5%

CAC-40   8126.53   -22.97   -0.3%   -22.97   -0.3%  2168.21   36.4%

DAX     24538.81    48.40    0.2%    48.40    0.2% 17580.67  252.7%

Swiss   13188.26   -79.22   -0.6%   -79.22   -0.6%  5618.16   74.2%

Nikkei  53322.85  2983.37    5.9%  2983.37    5.9% 34388.51  181.6%

HngSng  27387.11  1756.57    6.9%  1756.57    6.9% 10425.01   61.5%

AllOrd   9164.80   146.00    1.6%   146.00    1.6%  6012.30  190.7%

 

* Change since 12/31/1999 

 

 

Weekly Market Summary Page
[Return to the Fiend's SuperBear Page]