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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                               February 6, 2026                            *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
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The Great Unwind: When “Can’t Lose” Trades Start Losing Together

Thursday felt less like a normal correction and more like a forced reset.

Gold and silver didn’t just “pull back” — they were hit hard and fast, the kind of move you typically see when leverage has built up and then gets yanked out from under the market. Bitcoin got caught in the same downdraft, not because crypto suddenly discovered fundamentals overnight, but because in a real liquidation event, investors sell what they can, not what they want.

The important point is this: this didn’t look like a thoughtful re-pricing. It looked like position-clearing.

What made it so violent?

1.     Margin calls and the “sell whatever is liquid” moment
When a trade gets crowded and volatility spikes, the mechanics take over. That’s why a metal that people buy as “insurance” can still get dumped on a Thursday afternoon. If someone has to raise cash quickly, gold and silver are liquid, global, and easy to sell.

That dynamic is also why the CME keeps raising margin requirements. Higher margins are basically the exchange saying: “This market is too wild, and we need more collateral.” That tends to squeeze out marginal buyers and forces weak hands to reduce exposure — which can create more short-term selling even if the long-term thesis remains intact.

2.     Tech weakness is feeding the risk-off vibe
The stock selloff wasn’t random. A big chunk of it was tied to growing anxiety that AI is no longer just a tailwind — it may become a competitive wrecking ball for parts of the software world, while simultaneously demanding enormous spending from the winners. When investors start asking “where is the payback?” the mood changes quickly.

That’s how a market can go from “everything is fine” to “get me out of crowded trades” in a matter of sessions.

3.     The labor market is starting to whisper “slowdown”
Even without a single catastrophic headline, the economic backdrop is getting shakier at the edges:

  • Job openings just fell to the lowest level in more than five years.
  • Weekly jobless claims jumped.
  • Announced layoffs (Challenger) spiked to the highest January level since 2009.

On their own, none of these is the end of the world. Together — and combined with markets already perched at lofty levels — they add a new kind of fear: not inflation fear, but growth-and-liquidity fear.

So does the Fed “need to step in” with rate cuts?

Maybe — but not in the clean, bullish way people imagine.

If markets keep wobbling and the labor picture deteriorates, pressure for easier policy rises. But the Fed’s nightmare scenario is a market demanding cuts while inflation risk hasn’t fully gone away. That’s how you get instability: investors want the Fed to save asset prices, while the bond market wants the Fed to defend the purchasing power of the currency.

That tension is exactly what makes this setup more dangerous than a typical dip.

What to watch into the close of Friday

  • Do gold and silver stabilize after the smash, or do they keep whipsawing? (Volatility is now the story.)
  • Can bitcoin hold the low-$60k area after that kind of liquidation?
  • Does the S&P 500 find its footing, or does “software-mageddon” turn into broader de-risking?
  • Is the 30-year yield still gravitating toward 5%? That is a psychological and financial stress line.

Bottom line: Thursday looked like the market discovering — again — that easy money trades are stable right up until they aren’t. If the unwind continues, the Fed will be pulled into the story whether it wants to be or not. The only question is whether it gets pulled in as a calming influence… or as gasoline on inflation fears.

 

 

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