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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* January 7,
2026 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web
address: http://www.fiendbear.com *
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Fiend Commentary
================
Hump
Day: When Everything Rallies, Something Usually Gets Ignored
If 2026 were
a movie, the first week is already trying to convince us it’s a feel‑good
sequel: stocks up, bitcoin up, and silver ripping to fresh records above $80 an
ounce while gold presses back toward its all‑time highs.
On Tuesday,
the Dow closed above 49,000 for the first time (ending around 49,462),
with the S&P 500 also finishing at a record and the Nasdaq rising as well.
Silver finished above $80 for the first time, and spot gold climbed to
roughly $4,485—still
below its late‑December record, but close enough to make the market feel
like new milestones are inevitable. Bitcoin joined the party too, hovering
around the low‑to‑mid $93,000s.
That kind of
“everything is working” tape is powerful—because it tempts people into
believing the hard part is over.
The blind
spot: the Fed isn’t rushing to cut this month
Here’s
what’s odd: despite this broad optimism, rate expectations for the next Fed
meeting are not screaming “emergency easing.” Fed funds futures have been
pricing a relatively low chance of a January cut (the market is largely
leaning toward a hold), and Fed officials have been signaling caution about
moving too quickly.
So why is
everything still levitating?
Because the
market is trading a different idea: not “cuts this month,” but “policy will
lean easier over time, and liquidity will be managed to prevent accidents.”
That belief—more than any single data point—has become the true fuel.
The economy
is whispering a different story
Under the
cheering, the real economy is not exactly waving green flags.
The ISM
manufacturing index slid further into contraction as 2025 ended (still below
50, indicating shrinkage). Manufacturing isn’t the entire economy—but it’s often where weakening demand shows up early, especially
when credit and inventories start to matter again.
And we’re
heading into fresh labor data soon. If the jobs trend confirms cooling, the
market will initially cheer (“more reason for cuts later”). But there’s a fine
line between “cooling” and “cracking.” If unemployment starts moving up faster
than expected, sentiment can flip abruptly—especially
in a market priced for calm.
The “cheap
oil from Venezuela” dream meets the “Iran risk” reality
A major
pillar of this early‑January optimism is the hope that Venezuela becomes
a source of future “cheap oil.” Markets love that story because it sounds like a free gift: lower energy costs, lower inflation pressure,
friendlier policy.
But there
are two problems:
1.
Venezuela’s oil rebound is not a light switch. Even companies that can process Venezuelan crude emphasize
that meaningful output restoration would require huge long‑term
investment, and the industry is still dealing with years of deterioration and
uncertainty.
2.
Iran is heading the opposite direction. The protests and crackdown risk destabilizing a region
where energy “surprises” have historically been the kind that arrive fast—and
don’t come with a discount.
So the market is simultaneously pricing a future of easier
energy… while a geopolitical spark is already lit elsewhere. That’s not
impossible. It’s just not as clean as the rally implies.
Why silver
matters even if the stock market doesn’t care
Silver above
$80 is not a normal headline. It’s not a “nice rally.” It’s a
message—especially when it happens while equity volatility stays tame and stock
indexes keep hitting records.
Silver tends
to surge when traders believe one (or more) of these things:
In other
words, silver is acting like a smoke alarm in a house where everyone is hosting
a party.
Someone will
be wrong—here’s the mismatch
The current
market setup is trying to believe all of these can be true at once:
That’s a lot
of “good outcomes” to stack together. When markets pile up that many reminders
of perfection, the risk is that one disappointment forces a broad rethink—and
the rethink happens quickly because positioning is already leaning optimistic.
What to
watch today and into the week
Bottom line
This is a
roaring start to 2026—and the rally feels broad enough to be self‑reinforcing
for a while.
But the more
markets behave like nothing can go wrong, the more fragile they become. January
doesn’t need a catastrophe to create a shake‑up. It only needs a single
reality check—on jobs, oil, or inflation—that arrives when everyone is already
leaning the same way.
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