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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                  January 9, 2026                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
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Friday: Jobs Day Meets Metal Mania

Today’s payrolls report has the potential to do something the market hasn’t had to deal with much lately: force a choice.

For days, investors have been enjoying a rare combination—stock indexes near record highs, volatility staying strangely calm, and precious metals holding near historic levels. That mix is usually a sign of confidence. But it can also be a sign of something more fragile: a market that believes it has found a way to be bullish in every scenario.

This morning’s jobs report is the kind of catalyst that can break that illusion.

Why this jobs report matters more than usual

The labor market has drifted into what economists have been calling a “no hire, no fire” environment: companies are cautious about adding headcount, but they’re also reluctant to let workers go. It creates the appearance of stability—until it doesn’t.

The expectation is for modest job growth (around 60,000 jobs added in December) and for the unemployment rate to edge down to 4.5% from 4.6%. That sounds benign, but it’s a tightrope:

  • If hiring is too weak, the “jobless expansion” narrative gets louder.
  • If hiring is stronger than expected (or wages run hot), the market has to rethink rate-cut timing.
  • If the unemployment rate doesn’t cooperate—and instead holds closer to 4.6%—it reinforces the idea that slack is building underneath a market priced for calm.

Recent “opening acts” haven’t helped confidence. Private payrolls rose by only 41,000 in December in the ADP report, and job openings per unemployed worker fell further, underscoring that labor demand is ebbing even if layoffs remain contained. Meanwhile, productivity has been surging—great for margins and headline growth, but often a sign that companies are learning to do more with fewer people.

The metals are acting like they already know the punchline

Gold and silver are still trading like the world is headed toward easier money and bigger debts, not “normalization.”

Even with the dollar firmer and annual commodity index rebalancing creating short-term turbulence, gold has been hovering around $4,469/oz and silver around $76–$77/oz—both still tracking for strong weekly gains. In plain English: people are taking profits, but they’re not abandoning the trade.

This is what makes the metals market so interesting right now. It’s not just “inflation hedging.” It’s also policy hedging—a bet that the next response to economic stress will be more liquidity, not less.

Gold’s behavior says: “We’re not confident the system will stay tight.”
Silver’s behavior says: “And we’re not waiting for the Fed to admit it.”

The market wants one specific outcome

What Wall Street wants is a Goldilocks report:
soft enough to keep rate cuts alive in 2026, but not so soft that recession talk becomes unavoidable.

That’s the sweet spot where:

  • stocks can rally on the promise of easier policy,
  • bond yields can drift lower without fear,
  • and metals can keep climbing as a long-term confidence hedge.

The danger is that Goldilocks outcomes don’t last. Not when hiring is slowing, policy uncertainty still hangs over corporate decision-making, and productivity gains are masking labor weakness.

Three ways today can go — and what each implies

1) “Soft but stable” (the market’s favorite)
Payrolls modest, unemployment around 4.5%, wage growth contained.
This keeps the Fed on hold near-term, but preserves the option of cuts later in 2026. Stocks likely breathe a sigh of relief. Metals may consolidate but remain supported.

2) “Too hot” (bad for cut expectations)
Payrolls meaningfully stronger and/or wages surprise higher.
That pushes out rate-cut hopes. Yields and the dollar could rise, which tends to pressure gold and silver in the short run. Equities can still rally at first, but the support becomes shakier because it’s built on “easy money later.”

3) “Too cold” (good for cuts, risky for stocks)
Payrolls near zero (or negative), unemployment holds closer to 4.6% or rises, and revisions bite.
Rate-cut expectations would jump—but that’s not automatically bullish. Sometimes the market hears “cuts” and cheers; other times it hears “cuts” and realizes they’re arriving because something is breaking. Metals would likely interpret this as confirmation and stay well bid.

The real question behind the numbers

The market has been celebrating a world where it can have:

  • high stock prices,
  • falling rates,
  • and soaring metals,

all at once.

That combination can happen—but it doesn’t happen forever. It usually ends when investors are forced to admit what’s actually driving the move: not growth, but confidence. And confidence can change quickly when a single report challenges the narrative.

Today’s jobs report isn’t just about one month of hiring. It’s about whether the economy is merely cooling… or quietly slipping into something that eventually forces the Fed’s hand.

Either way, the metals market is already voting.
Now we find out whether the jobs data agrees.

 

 

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