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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                November 20, 2025                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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NVDA’s Bounce, Data’s Void

Nvidia’s blowout quarter put a floor under risk this morning and futures are rebounding, but it doesn’t fix the blind spot: we still don’t have a complete October jobs report, and the post-shutdown release calendar is being rebuilt on the fly. A single megacap can steady the headline, yet policy is set by the data we don’t have—and won’t fully have for weeks.

 

Rates and the dollar are reminding everyone this isn’t a one-stock market. The 10-year is hovering a touch above 4.1%, the dollar index is back near 100, and metals are steady after their shakeout (gold around the low-$4,080s, silver near $51). That combination—firmer long yields with a firm dollar—caps how far multiple expansion can run on an earnings pop alone.

 

What matters from here:

 

  • Jobs drip, not firehose. Incomplete October figures mean November’s report will carry extra weight. One weak print revives faster-cut chatter; one firm print reins in the glide path.
  • Breadth check. If today’s bounce is all semis and little else, it’s a trade, not a turn.
  • Curve & auctions. Clean supply keeps term premium contained; a sloppy tail would fade any NVDA afterglow quickly.

 

Bottom line: A stellar quarter can spark a relief rally. Without a full dashboard, it can’t rewrite the macro. Enjoy the bounce; keep one eye on the releases as they trickle back and the other on the long end.

 

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