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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                November 24, 2025                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Credit on Stilts

Prosperity looks great from a distance because almost everything is priced on payment plans, not paychecks. The modern economy is a financing machine: houses, cars, phones, groceries, capex—packaged into terms, teaser rates, and rollovers. When price is set by the monthly, not the total, you can float for a long time. Until you can’t.

 

Fifteen-year car loans and 50-year mortgages aren’t signs of strength; they’re stretchers. They tell you incomes can’t clear today’s prices without longer ladders. BNPL at the checkout isn’t innovation—it’s a pressure valve. Even corporate “investment” has migrated to leasebacks, SPVs, and vendor financing. It all works as long as credit expands and funding is cheap.

 

What could interrupt it?

 

  • A yield or spread shock: higher real yields or wider credit spreads lift monthly payments and kill the “it pencils” math.
  • A funding hiccup: an ABS/CMBS freeze, repo spike, or a couple of ugly auctions—and lenders price in fear.
  • Job softness: the first real uptick in layoffs turns delinquency creep into a climb.
  • Policy whiplash: fewer cuts than priced, slower QT end, or a dollar snapback that tightens conditions anyway.

 

Tells to watch this week

 

  • The long end: if 10-year yields grind higher, multiples and affordability both erode.
  • Credit tape: auto and card delinquencies, high-yield spreads, and new issue reception.
  • Breadth vs. brand: a rally carried by a handful of giants says credit is dearer for everyone else.
  • Metals at support: insurance bids holding while stocks bounce is the market muttering “fragile.”

 

Here’s the uncomfortable arithmetic: if credit doesn’t keep growing, prices must adjust—on assets, on goods, or both. If it does keep growing, the bill arrives through the currency and the cost of living. Either way, stretching terms isn’t the same as creating capacity.

 

The story of year-end into 2026 is simple: Can the financing engine stay ahead of the income curve? If the answer slips, the economy and stocks won’t step down—they’ll gap.

 

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