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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 April 1, 2026                             *

*                                                                           *

*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
================

March 2026: A Relief Rally Can’t Fix an Energy Shock

Tuesday’s late-month rebound was impressive, but it shouldn’t distract from what March really delivered: a month where markets started to price an uncomfortable combination of war risk, higher energy costs, fading policy support, and an economy that was already losing momentum.

What happened in March (the scorecard)

Even with Tuesday’s surge, March finished as a clear “risk-off” month:

  • Stocks: The S&P 500 fell about 5% for the month, the Dow was down roughly 5%, and the Nasdaq also declined around 5%. Tuesday’s rally was the kind you get when hope returns for a few hours—not when underlying conditions have been repaired.
  • Precious metals: Gold fell roughly 11% in March, and silver was hit even harder (down around 19%). That’s the part that surprises casual observers: “war” doesn’t automatically equal “gold up,” especially when the bond market is repricing and liquidity gets tight.
  • Oil: Crude was the center of gravity all month. Even when prices eased on ceasefire headlines, oil remained near the $100 zone, which is the level that starts showing up in real life—at the pump, in shipping costs, and in corporate margins.

Why did gold and silver fall during a war?

This is the key lesson of March.

A true “safe haven” bid usually works best when the crisis produces lower yields and a weaker currency. March delivered the opposite: inflation fear pushed yields higher at times, and the dollar periodically firmed. That creates a nasty short-term setup for metals:

  • Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
  • Volatility forces liquidation—investors sell what they can (including metals) to raise cash.
  • Silver gets hit twice: it trades like money and like an industrial input, so growth worries can weigh on it even if inflation fears are rising.

In other words, March looked less like a “flight to safety” and more like a “scramble for liquidity.”

Powell’s message: no hikes, but also no rescue

Markets also had to digest a subtle but important shift in tone from the Fed.

Powell has signaled that rate hikes are unlikely in the near term (the bar is high), but he also hasn’t promised the market a clean path to cuts. The Fed is trying to avoid overreacting to what it may frame as a supply shock (energy disruption), while still claiming it cares about inflation.

The market hears something slightly different: if the Fed won’t hike into an oil shock, inflation has more room to run.

That’s why—even after a brutal liquidation—metals still have a longer-term bid underneath them. If inflation expectations creep higher and the Fed stays “patient,” the fundamental argument for owning hard assets doesn’t disappear. It just gets delayed by the mechanics of selling pressure and higher yields.

The war may end, but the hard problems don’t vanish

Even if both sides are quietly looking for an exit ramp, two core issues remain unresolved:

1.     Nuclear materials / strategic capability (the political red line)

2.     The Strait of Hormuz (the economic red line)

Markets can rally on ceasefire headlines, but shipping lanes don’t reopen on vibes. Even a partial disruption changes the cost structure of global trade. And it’s not just crude oil moving through that corridor—it’s refined products, LNG, petrochemical feedstocks, and downstream cargo that ultimately influences food, fertilizer, and transport costs.

So the real question for April isn’t “Do we get another hopeful headline?”

It’s: Does traffic normalize, and do insurance + freight costs come back down?

Why $100 oil is a slow-motion problem

A week of elevated oil is a shock. A month is a tax. Two months becomes a macro event.

If oil hovers near $100 for another month:

  • Consumer sentiment tends to deteriorate.
  • Inflation readings get ugly (even if delayed).
  • Corporate margins compress.
  • Weak growth starts to look weaker.
  • And the Fed gets boxed in—because cutting into rising inflation becomes politically and institutionally harder.

That’s why March felt like the “beginning of consequences” rather than just another geopolitical scare.

What to watch next

If March was the warning shot, April is where the second-round effects start to show up.

Watch for:

  • Whether oil stays elevated even when “good news” hits the tape
  • Whether yields remain sticky (a sign the bond market is more worried about inflation than growth)
  • Whether hiring weakens further (energy shocks and weak labor markets rarely mix well)
  • Whether the next inflation prints show pass-through from energy and shipping costs

March ended with a relief rally—but it also ended with the economy and markets in a more fragile position than where they started.

 

Index  03/31/26  Mn Chng  Mnth %  Yr Chng  Year % 2K Chg*   2000 %

------ --------  -------  ------  -------  ------ --------  ------

Dow30  46341.51 -2636.41   -5.4% -1721.78   -3.6% 34844.39  303.1%

Trans  18609.55 -1079.64   -5.5%  1252.36    7.2% 15632.35  525.1%

Utils   1158.92   -31.31   -2.6%    90.85    8.5%   875.56  309.0%

S&P500  6528.52  -350.36   -5.1%  -316.98   -4.6%  5059.27  344.3%

Nasdaq 21590.63 -1077.58   -4.8% -1651.36   -7.1% 17521.32  430.6%

NYSE   22089.43 -1405.01   -6.0%    85.50    0.4%     N/A     N/A

Rus2000 2496.37  -135.99   -5.2%    14.46    0.6%  1991.62  394.6%

Amex    8825.56    64.42    0.7%  1958.77   28.5%  7956.82  915.9%

Val Lne12256.86  -712.42   -5.5%    42.29    0.3% 11231.06 1094.9%

30Yr Tr   48.90     2.60   -5.6%     0.50   -1.0%   -15.90   24.5%

Bnk Idx  154.31    -4.87   -3.1%    -9.87   -6.0%    77.31  100.4%

MSH 35  6731.61  -347.32   -4.9%  -592.97   -8.1%  5810.83  631.1%

Housing  628.64   -94.45  -13.1%   -35.65   -5.4%     N/A     N/A

Airline   60.25   -13.17  -17.9%   -10.00  -14.2%   -93.22  -60.7%

Retail  6675.49  -231.57   -3.4%  -516.14   -7.2%     N/A     N/A

          

* Change since 12/31/1999

 

Winners-Losers              4-26         15-15

Dow Industrials    Mar-31 Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg Year %

---------------    ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

Nike                52.82  -9.36 -15.1% -10.89 -17.1%  

Home Depot         328.89 -51.83 -13.6% -15.21  -4.4%  

Procter-Gamble     144.44 -22.76 -13.6%   1.13   0.8%  

Boeing             199.03 -28.50 -12.5% -18.09  -8.3%  

Minn Mining Mnf    145.23 -20.09 -12.2% -14.87  -9.3%              

Amgen              351.85 -36.31  -9.4%  24.54   7.5%  

Disney              96.38  -9.66  -9.1% -17.39 -15.3%  

McDonald's         310.79 -30.27  -8.9%   5.16   1.7%  

UnitedHealth       270.59 -22.68  -7.7% -59.52 -18.0%  

Honeywell          226.03 -17.56  -7.2%  30.94  15.9%  

Coca-Cola           76.05  -5.51  -6.8%   6.14   8.8%  

Microsoft          370.17 -22.57  -5.7%-113.45 -23.5%  

Visa               302.24 -17.90  -5.6% -48.47 -13.8%  

Travelers          291.68 -16.96  -5.5%   1.62   0.6%  

Caterpillar        708.46 -34.37  -4.6% 135.59  23.7%  

SalesForce.com     186.67  -8.12  -4.2% -78.24 -29.5%  

Apple              253.79 -10.39  -3.9% -18.07  -6.6%  

Intel               44.13  -1.48  -3.2%   7.23  19.6%  

Wal-Mart           124.28  -3.67  -2.9%  12.87  11.6%  

Merck              120.29  -3.53  -2.9%  15.03  14.3%  

Cisco               77.59  -1.87  -2.4%   0.56   0.7%  

American Exprss    302.48  -6.42  -2.1% -67.47 -18.2%  

JP Morgan Chase    294.16  -6.14  -2.0% -28.06  -8.7%  

Johnson-Johnson    244.44  -3.99  -1.6%  37.49  18.1%  

Goldman Sachs      845.99 -13.58  -1.6% -33.01  -3.8%  

Amazon             208.27  -1.73  -0.8% -22.55  -9.8%  

Verizon Comm        50.20   0.06   0.1%   9.47  23.3%  

IBM                242.39   2.18   0.9% -53.82 -18.2%  

Chevron-Texaco     206.90  20.14  10.8%  54.49  35.8%  

Dow                 41.65  10.92  35.5%  18.27  78.1%  

 

 

                            Fiend's Prime-25©

                            -----------------

                                                      

Winners-Losers                 5-20            5-20

    Company        Mar-31    Mn Chg   Month  Yr Chg Year %

---------------   -------   -------  ------ ------- ------

Micron Tech        337.84    -74.53  -18.1%   52.43  18.4%  

Home Depot         328.89    -51.83  -13.6%  -15.21  -4.4%  

Eli Lilly          919.77   -132.22  -12.6% -154.91 -14.4%  

Meta (FB)          572.13    -76.05  -11.7%  -87.96 -13.3%  

Google             286.86    -24.57   -7.9%  -26.94  -8.6%  

Tesla              371.75    -30.76   -7.6%  -77.97 -17.3%  

Abbvie             217.49    -14.59   -6.3%  -11.00  -4.8%  

Microsoft          370.17    -22.57   -5.7% -113.45 -23.5%  

Visa Inc.          302.24    -17.90   -5.6%  -48.47 -13.8%  

Berkshire Hath     479.20    -25.75   -5.1%  -23.45  -4.7%  

Apple Comp         253.79    -10.39   -3.9%  -18.07  -6.6%  

Mastercard         499.66    -17.55   -3.4%  -71.22 -12.5%  

Broadcom           309.51    -10.04   -3.1%  -36.59 -10.6%  

Walmart            124.28     -3.67   -2.9%   12.87  11.6%  

Bank of America     48.75     -1.08   -2.2%   -6.25 -11.4%  

JP Morgan Chase    294.16     -6.14   -2.0%  -28.06  -8.7%  

Johnson-Johnson    244.44     -3.99   -1.6%   37.49  18.1%  

NVIDIA             174.40     -2.79   -1.6%  -12.10  -6.5%  

Costco             996.43    -14.36   -1.4%  134.09  15.5%  

Amazon             208.27     -1.73   -0.8%  -22.55  -9.8%  

Netflix             96.15     -0.09   -0.1%    2.39   2.5%  

Oracle             147.11      1.71    1.2%  -47.80 -24.5%  

AMD                203.43      3.22    1.6%  -10.73  -5.0%  

Palantir Tech      146.28      9.09    6.6%  -31.47 -17.7%  

Exxon Mobil        169.66     17.16   11.3%   49.32  41.0%

 

Prime-25©        29987.43  -1402.22   -4.5%-2823.23  -8.6%

 

 

RNK      Company         (Bil)   P/E   Yield Symb      Sector

--- -----------------   ------ ------- ----- ----   ---------------

 1. NVIDIA              $4247   59.32  0.02% NVDA    Technology  

 2. Apple               $3771   39.59  0.40% AAPL    Technology  

 3. Google              $3467   31.98  0.29% GOOG    Communication

 4. Microsoft           $2750   28.61  0.90% MSFT    Technology  

 5. Amazon              $2220   33.98  0.00% AMZN    Consumer    

 6. Broadcom            $1461  149.52  0.76% AVGO    Technology  

 7. Meta (FB)           $1437   22.31  0.36% META    Communication

 8. Tesla               $1197  204.26  0.00% TSLA    Consumer    

 9. Berkshire Hath      $1033   12.77  0.00% BRK-B   Financial   

10. Walmart              $991   53.34  0.73% WMT     Consumer    

11. Eli Lilly            $871   76.20  0.63% LLY     Healthcare  

12. JP Morgan Chase      $809   14.44  1.89% JPM     Financial   

13. Exxon Mobil          $723   22.44  2.33% XOM     Energy      

14. Johnson-Johnson      $589   27.16  2.08% JNJ     Healthcare  

15. Visa Inc.            $586   30.75  0.78% V       Financial   

16. Mastercard           $449   35.04  0.61% MA      Financial   

17. Costco               $441   58.17  0.49% COST    Consumer    

18. Oracle               $418   34.53  1.29% ORCL    Technology  

19. Netflix              $408   40.23  0.00% NFLX    Communication

20. Abbvie               $385   92.55  3.02% ABBV    Healthcare  

21. Micron Tech          $382   32.11  0.14% MU      Technology  

22. Bank of America      $361   14.55  2.17% BAC     Financial   

23. Palantir             $334  340.19  0.00% PLTR    Technology  

24. AMD                  $332  100.71  0.00% AMD     Technology  

25. Home Depot           $327   22.04  2.78% HD      Consumer    

    

     Prime-25©         $29,987   34.90  0.56%                    

 

Changes for 2026:

 

PLTR Palantir, AMD, and MU Micron Tech were added while

CRM SalesForce, PG Procter-Gamble, and UNH UnitedHealth were removed.

 

 

                                    Currencies

                                    ----------

                                                   

Crrncy   Mar-31  Mn Chg  Mnth %   Yr Chg  Year %  2K Chg*  2000 %

------  -------  ------  ------   ------  ------  -------  ------

Pound    132.27   -2.57   -1.9%    -2.21   -1.6%   -29.63  -18.3%

SwFrnc   125.10   -4.87   -3.7%    -0.90   -0.7%    61.63   97.1%

Euro     115.53   -2.64   -2.2%    -1.79   -1.5%    13.92   13.7%

Yen       62.96   -1.12   -1.7%    -0.81   -1.3%   -35.96  -36.4%

US Dlr    99.96    2.35    2.4%     1.64    1.7%    -1.46   -1.4%

               

    

                                    Commodities

                                    -----------

 Apr                                             

Cmmdty    Mar-31   Mn Chg  Mnth %   Yr Chg  Year % 2K Chng*  2000 %

------ ---------  -------  ------  -------  ------ --------  ------

Gold   $4,647.60 -$600.30  -11.4%  $273.70    6.3%$4,358.00 1504.8%

XAU       374.21   -96.16  -20.4%    31.93    9.3%   306.24  450.6%

Oil/My   $101.38   $34.49   51.6%   $44.38   77.9%   $75.78  296.0%

XOI      2652.63   397.52   17.6%   795.87   42.9%  2149.63  427.4%

CRB       372.42    59.75   19.1%    73.64   24.6%   167.28   81.5%

 

                                                                                                     

                                  Foreign Markets       

                                  ---------------

                                

Exchng   Mar-31  Mnth Chg  Mnth % Year Chg  Year % 2K Chng*  2000 %

------ --------- --------  ------ --------  ------ --------  ------

TSX     32768.04 -1571.95   -4.6%  1055.28    3.3% 24354.29  289.5%

IPC     68610.72 -2795.06   -3.9%  4302.43    6.7% 61480.84  862.3%

BVSP   187461.80 -1325.20   -0.7% 26336.40   16.3%170369.80  996.8%

FTSE    10176.45  -734.10   -6.7%   245.07    2.5%  3246.25   46.8%

CAC-40   7816.94  -763.81   -8.9%  -332.56   -4.1%  1858.62   31.2%

DAX     22680.04 -2604.22  -10.3% -1810.37   -7.4% 15721.90  225.9%

Swiss   12776.79 -1237.51   -8.8%  -490.69   -3.7%  5206.69   68.8%

Nikkei  51063.73 -7786.54  -13.2%   724.25    1.4% 32129.39  169.7%

HngSng  24788.14 -1842.40   -6.9%  -842.40   -3.3%  7826.04   46.1%

AllOrd   8683.90  -751.70   -8.0%  -334.90   -3.7%  5531.40  175.5%

 

* Change since 12/31/1999                                                                                       

 

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