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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* March 13,
2026 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web
address: http://www.fiendbear.com *
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Fiend Commentary
================
Friday
the 13th: The Real Curse Is an Oil Shock
If today
feels like “Friday the 13th,” it’s not because of superstition. It’s because
the market is being forced to price two things at once that rarely play nicely
together: a fragile economy and an energy shock that can re-ignite
inflation on contact.
Thursday’s
selloff was a reminder that Wall Street can ignore a lot of bad news—right up
until it can’t. The trigger was simple: more signs that the Middle East
conflict has no clean off‑ramp, and that shipping risk in the Strait is
not just a headline… it’s a pricing mechanism.
Oil stayed
elevated (WTI in the mid‑$90s, Brent around $100), and equities finally
behaved the way they usually do when energy becomes a tax on everything else.
The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all dropped hard, with energy the lone bright
spot—exactly what you’d expect when “growth” starts to look like “stagflation”
in the mirror.
But the
bigger tell wasn’t the stock tape. It was the rates tape.
When the
long bond starts drifting back toward 5% while oil is rising, it’s the market
whispering (and sometimes yelling):
“The Fed may want to cut later, but inflation might not let them.”
That’s why
the dollar has acted like a stress barometer. A rising dollar doesn’t
automatically mean confidence—sometimes it just means global money is
huddling in the least ugly shelter while everyone waits for the next shoe
to drop.
The
technical damage also matters. The Dow
didn’t just “flirt” with a big level—it’s now below its 200‑day
moving average on many models. That’s the kind of line systematic money actually reacts to. If we don’t reclaim it quickly, the risk
is that rallies become selling opportunities instead of fresh starts.
Meanwhile,
the Nasdaq story remains oddly familiar: a handful of winners can keep the
index from collapsing, but broad leadership has looked tired for a while. When
markets are strong, you want participation. When you get “islands of green”
surrounded by red, you don’t have a healthy rally—you have a mask.
And then
there’s the part nobody can model with precision: the endgame. The
market can live with bad news. What it hates is uncertainty with no
timetable. Reports suggesting internal disagreement over the war’s
objective and exit strategy are exactly the kind of fog that keeps risk
premiums rising—even on days when stocks try to bounce.
What to
watch today (besides war headlines):
We finally get a loaded slate of economic data (GDP revision, durable goods,
core PCE, job openings, consumer sentiment). In a normal week, that would
dominate the narrative. In this week, it may only matter if it changes the rate
path—or if it confirms the ugly combination investors fear most: slowing
growth + sticky prices.
Bottom line
for “Friday the 13th”:
This market isn’t being haunted by bad luck. It’s being haunted by a simple
math problem:
That’s when
things “break.” Not necessarily in one dramatic crash—but in a rolling air‑pocket
where confidence fades, liquidity thins out, and every rally feels like a trap.
It’s early
March. But the price action is already hinting at what kind of year 2026 wants
to be: less forgiving, more volatile, and more dependent on headlines that
don’t come with a calendar.
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