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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                               February 3, 2026                            *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
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Stocks Bounce, Yields Press Higher, Metals Try to Regroup

Tuesday is opening with a familiar 2026 tension: stocks want to keep levitating, but the bond market keeps reminding everyone that money is no longer "free" - and the metals market is still acting like it smells smoke somewhere offstage.

On Monday, U.S. equities staged a solid rebound after the late-January cross-asset chaos. The S&P 500 rose to 6,976, finishing just shy of its all-time high, while the Dow gained more than 500 points to 49,408. The Nasdaq also advanced, and the Russell 2000 outperformed again, reinforcing the sense that investors are still willing to take risk when the tape steadies.

But the bond market is not fully buying the "all clear" signal. The 10-year yield is hovering near the upper end of its recent range around 4.3%, while the 30-year remains elevated in the high-4% area. That is not panic - but it is a quiet warning: long rates are acting like inflation and deficit math are still in the room, even if stocks would rather look away.

The dollar, meanwhile, has stopped sprinting. After the Warsh nomination sparked a credibility-style bounce, the greenback is now more in "hold and digest" mode. A big part of that is simple: markets are trying to decide whether the Warsh pick signals a genuinely tougher Fed stance, or just a strategic attempt to calm the dollar and cool the optics of runaway metals. The immediate effect was real. The long-run effect is still an open question.

Which brings us to the most emotional market on the board: gold and silver.

After Thursday's blow-off highs and Friday's brutal reversal, the metals are trying to find their footing. Early Tuesday, gold has rebounded back into the high-$4,700s/low-$4,800s zone and silver is back in the low-$80s (with screens varying by contract and timing). That is still far below last week's extremes, but importantly: the market is no longer in pure free-fall.

Two underappreciated drivers of the whipsaw:

1.     CME margin hikes after the extreme volatility (which tends to flush leverage and force selling at the worst possible time).

2.     The "crowded trade" effect: once too many participants are leaning the same way, the first break becomes self-fulfilling liquidation.

The other macro wrinkle today is that the data is still sending mixed signals. The ISM manufacturing index jumped to 52.6, the strongest reading since 2022 - not exactly the kind of print that screams recession right now. At the same time, the jobs report is still delayed by the partial shutdown, keeping markets half-blind on the most politically sensitive economic variable: employment. In a data vacuum, narratives trade harder than facts.

What to watch today

  • If the S&P 500 can reclaim and hold the 7,000 neighborhood, it will reinforce the "risk-on by habit" mindset.
  • If the 10-year yield pushes decisively above the recent ceiling near 4.3%, it raises the odds that equities eventually have to pay attention.
  • If gold and silver can stabilize after Friday's damage, it suggests this was a leverage flush, not the end of the larger thesis.

Bottom line: Tuesday looks like a tug-of-war session. Stocks are acting like the storm has passed. Bonds are acting like the storm is merely taking a breath. Metals are acting like they know exactly why people buy insurance - and exactly how painful it is when everyone buys it at once.

 

 

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