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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                December 2, 2025                           *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Carry Trade Wobbles, Silver Nears $60

Silver just printed another record and came within a whisker of $60/oz. At the same time the 10-year popped back near ~4.10%, a move traders tied to stress in the yen carry trade: when the yen snaps stronger or hedging costs jump, leveraged longs unwind across assets and U.S. duration gets sold. The result is the odd mix we saw overnight—metals screaming higher while long yields back up.

 

A rate cut next week is still the base case, but the tape is starting to handicap the post-Powell era as well: a Fed that may end QT, then face a harder choice between market stability and price credibility. That’s why silver and gold lead on days like this. Stocks can cheer a cut; hard money prices the cost of that cut.

 

What this means right now

  • Carry risk > calendar risk. One jagged move in USD/JPY or cross-currency basis can overpower a tidy “countdown to the Fed” narrative.
  • Metals aren’t a sideshow. New highs in silver with gold firm says investors want delivery now, not just a dovish paragraph later.
  • Cuts with 3% inflation = negative real rates again. That’s rocket fuel for assets—and a tax on cash.

Levels & tells

  • Silver: A strong close above the mid-$50s turns $60 from spectacle into magnet; a slip back toward low-$50s would say the squeeze cooled, not the trend.
  • 10-year: A sustained push above ~4.10–4.15% tightens the equity multiple and tests the “everything up” regime.
  • USD/JPY: A disorderly yen rally is the fastest path from today’s rebound to tomorrow’s air pocket.

My December map (no mealy-mouth hedging)

  • Base case (50%): Metals set new closing highs; equities chop. The Fed cuts once, hints “flexibility” on the balance sheet, and the long end stays range-bound—stocks finish up modestly, metals outrun equities.
  • Downside (30%): Carry unwind + sloppy auctions. 10-year climbs toward mid-4s, breadth rolls over, and indexes give back 5–8% from last week’s highs; metals volatile but hold higher floors.
  • Upside (20%): Clean carry, soft data, calm curve. A “Santa” grind with small caps and cyclicals doing the lifting while metals consolidate just under fresh highs.

Come back tomorrow—two quick checkpoints

  1. Did silver close above the mid-$50s?
  2. Did the 10-year finish below ~4.10%?

If both hit, today’s move argues for more of the same into the meeting: stocks supported, metals in charge, and the carry watching all of us.

 

 

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