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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 March 13, 2026                            *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
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Friday the 13th: The Real Curse Is an Oil Shock

If today feels like “Friday the 13th,” it’s not because of superstition. It’s because the market is being forced to price two things at once that rarely play nicely together: a fragile economy and an energy shock that can re-ignite inflation on contact.

Thursday’s selloff was a reminder that Wall Street can ignore a lot of bad news—right up until it can’t. The trigger was simple: more signs that the Middle East conflict has no clean off‑ramp, and that shipping risk in the Strait is not just a headline… it’s a pricing mechanism.

Oil stayed elevated (WTI in the mid‑$90s, Brent around $100), and equities finally behaved the way they usually do when energy becomes a tax on everything else. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all dropped hard, with energy the lone bright spot—exactly what you’d expect when “growth” starts to look like “stagflation” in the mirror.

But the bigger tell wasn’t the stock tape. It was the rates tape.

When the long bond starts drifting back toward 5% while oil is rising, it’s the market whispering (and sometimes yelling):
“The Fed may want to cut later, but inflation might not let them.”

That’s why the dollar has acted like a stress barometer. A rising dollar doesn’t automatically mean confidence—sometimes it just means global money is huddling in the least ugly shelter while everyone waits for the next shoe to drop.

The technical damage also matters. The Dow didn’t just “flirt” with a big level—it’s now below its 200‑day moving average on many models. That’s the kind of line systematic money actually reacts to. If we don’t reclaim it quickly, the risk is that rallies become selling opportunities instead of fresh starts.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq story remains oddly familiar: a handful of winners can keep the index from collapsing, but broad leadership has looked tired for a while. When markets are strong, you want participation. When you get “islands of green” surrounded by red, you don’t have a healthy rally—you have a mask.

And then there’s the part nobody can model with precision: the endgame. The market can live with bad news. What it hates is uncertainty with no timetable. Reports suggesting internal disagreement over the war’s objective and exit strategy are exactly the kind of fog that keeps risk premiums rising—even on days when stocks try to bounce.

What to watch today (besides war headlines):
We finally get a loaded slate of economic data (GDP revision, durable goods, core PCE, job openings, consumer sentiment). In a normal week, that would dominate the narrative. In this week, it may only matter if it changes the rate path—or if it confirms the ugly combination investors fear most: slowing growth + sticky prices.

Bottom line for “Friday the 13th”:
This market isn’t being haunted by bad luck. It’s being haunted by a simple math problem:

  • If oil stays high long enough, inflation pressure rises.
  • If inflation pressure rises, rate cuts get pushed out.
  • If rate cuts get pushed out while growth slows, valuations have to defend themselves without the Fed as a safety net.

That’s when things “break.” Not necessarily in one dramatic crash—but in a rolling air‑pocket where confidence fades, liquidity thins out, and every rally feels like a trap.

It’s early March. But the price action is already hinting at what kind of year 2026 wants to be: less forgiving, more volatile, and more dependent on headlines that don’t come with a calendar.


 

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