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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* March 26,
2026 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web address:
http://www.fiendbear.com
*
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Fiend Commentary
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Ceasefire
Headlines Are Fading, but the Oil Problem Isn’t
For a few
sessions, markets tried to trade this conflict the way they trade a scary
weather forecast: brace, flinch, then move on. But Thursday’s tape is starting
to look different. Investors are growing skeptical that a neat resolution is
close—and the oil market is saying so loudly.
Even with
all the talk of ceasefire proposals and “progress,” crude has pushed back up
again. U.S. crude is back above $90, and Brent is hovering near (or above) the
$100 area. That’s not what you’d expect if traders truly believed the Strait is
about to normalize. It’s what you’d expect if the market is quietly admitting: this
may take longer than we want.
And time is
the real enemy here.
Why a “month
of elevated oil” is manageable—and a second month is not
The first
few weeks of high oil prices can be absorbed. Companies hedge. Consumers
grumble but adapt. Inventories cushion the blow. Policymakers talk confidently.
But if
elevated prices persist for another month, the story changes from “shock” to
“tax”:
That’s when
it stops being a war headline and becomes a macro problem.
Strategic
reserves can cap panic—not restore normality
Reserve
releases can absolutely calm markets in the short run. They can prevent a
squeeze. They can buy time.
But reserves
don’t solve the underlying issue if shipping remains uncertain and insurers,
shippers, and refiners treat the Strait like a roulette wheel. Markets can’t
“narrative” their way around physical logistics for long. If flows remain
impaired—whether officially “closed” or simply too risky—oil prices don’t need
to explode to do damage. They just need to stay high enough to bleed the
system.
Why gold and
silver are slipping even with geopolitical risk
This is
confusing to many readers: shouldn’t metals rally when the world looks
unstable?
Often
yes—but not when the market is repricing rates and liquidity. If
investors start believing the Fed can’t cut (or that inflation risk blocks
easing), yields stay elevated and the dollar firms. In that environment, gold
can stall or pull back, and silver can get hit even harder because it’s part
monetary metal, part industrial metal—and “industrial” gets questioned when
growth fears rise.
In plain
language: when markets get scared, they sometimes sell the “insurance” to raise
cash.
Stocks are
acting like they want a rally—but don’t trust it
Stocks did
bounce on ceasefire optimism, but the overnight softness suggests confidence is
thin. The market wants peace because peace would lower oil and reopen the “rate
cuts + disinflation” storyline.
But optimism
for rate cuts and low inflation is fading quickly. If oil stays elevated, that
story gets harder to sell. And when the story breaks, rallies turn into head
fakes.
The takeaway
for Thursday
Markets are
beginning to price a longer timeline: not “peace tomorrow,” but “messy for
weeks.” And if oil remains elevated for another month, the impact won’t just be
on energy charts—it will show up in inflation psychology, consumer behavior,
and eventually earnings.
This isn’t
about whether oil goes to $150.
It’s about whether $90–$105 becomes a new normal for long enough to bend
the economy.
That’s why
the action feels so topsy-turvy: investors are still trading hope, but the oil
market is trading time.
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