Fiend's SuperBear Market Report

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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT *

* February 16, 2026 *

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* e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com *

* web address: http://www.fiendbear.com *

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Fiend Commentary
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Dow Near 50K, Nasdaq in the Red: A Market With Two Personalities

U.S. stock markets are closed today for Presidents Day, but the “tape” didn’t go quiet — it just shifted to the places that never really sleep: rates, currencies, and precious metals.

As of Friday’s close, the Dow is still up about 3% year-to-date, yet it’s back below the psychological 50,000 level (49,500). Meanwhile the broader market is basically treading water: the S&P 500 is essentially flat for the year, and the Nasdaq is down about 3% year-to-date. That divergence matters.

When the Dow is green, the Nasdaq is red, and the S&P is stuck in place, it’s usually telling you one thing: investors aren’t “risk-on” or “risk-off.” They’re selectively nervous.

1. Dow strength, Nasdaq weakness: it’s not bullish, it’s defensive optimism
A lot of people see a rising Dow and assume “the market is fine.” But the Dow is a very specific kind of fine: it can look healthy even when growth appetite is deteriorating.

The Nasdaq’s weakness is more revealing because it’s where valuation sensitivity and “future growth” assumptions live. And lately, that’s where the market has been quietly changing its mind.

The narrative shift is subtle but important: it’s not “AI is dead.” It’s “AI might be real, but it’s expensive.” Investors are increasingly asking whether the payoff is soon enough to justify the spending, the competitive risk, and the stretched multiples. When that question starts circulating, the most crowded trades don’t crash immediately — they just stop responding to good news the way they used to.

That is what topping behavior looks like in real time: not one dramatic event, but a slow failure of the market’s favorite stocks to keep pulling everything else uphill.

2. Bonds are whispering “growth scare,” even if stocks aren’t listening
The 10-year Treasury yield has drifted back toward the 4% zone again (it ended Friday near 4.05%). That’s a meaningful move considering how recently the market was flirting with much higher yields and sounding the alarm about a breakout.

When yields fall like this, the bond market is typically pricing in some combination of:

slower growth ahead,
easing inflation pressures,
or a Fed that will eventually have to lean dovish again — whether it wants to or not.

Here’s the paradox: lower yields usually help growth stocks. Yet the Nasdaq has still been struggling. That’s not a “good” signal. It suggests the market’s problem isn’t just the discount rate — it’s confidence in the earnings story itself.

In other words, we’re watching a rare setup where bonds are acting like the economy is slowing, while equity investors are acting like the economy can be ignored — except for the part of the market (tech) that’s starting to behave like it suddenly cares.

3. The dollar is soft again — and that’s why gold and silver won’t just go away
The U.S. dollar index is still hanging near the high-96/around-97 area, close to recent multi-year lows. The dollar doesn’t have to collapse to change investor behavior. It only has to keep disappointing.

A persistently soft dollar has two effects:

It quietly boosts dollar-priced assets (especially commodities and metals), and
It starts to erode confidence that policy makers can “thread the needle” without paying a currency price.

In overnight trading, gold is holding around the $5,000 area and silver around the high-$70s. Even on a calm holiday session, that’s not a “normal” backdrop — it’s a reminder that the metals market is still pricing in a world where monetary credibility and fiscal discipline are not exactly inspiring confidence.

And that’s the key point for 2026: gold and silver no longer need daily headlines to stay elevated. They’ve become a referendum market — on currency confidence, on debt tolerance, and on whether “temporary” policy measures ever truly end.

4. What to watch when markets reopen Tuesday
With a holiday pause, the first session back often reveals whether the market is building energy for a move — or just delaying the decision.

A few “tell me the truth” levels to watch:

Dow: Can it reclaim 50,000 quickly, or does that number act like a ceiling?
S&P 500: Does it regain momentum, or does it keep behaving like a market that’s already priced in the best case?
Nasdaq: Does it stabilize, or does tech keep acting like the leadership era is fading?
10-year yield: A clean break below 4% would look like a growth scare. A reversal higher would bring back the “rates are the problem” storyline fast.
Dollar: If the dollar can’t rally even with markets closed and risk muted, that’s not bullish for confidence.
Gold/Silver: The question isn’t “can they go up on a panic day.” It’s “can they stay firm on a quiet day.” So far, they’re doing exactly that.

Bottom line
The headline market is telling a simple story: “We’re fine.”
The internal market is telling a different one: “We’re fine… as long as credit stays easy, yields don’t spike again, and the AI story doesn’t get re-priced.”

That’s a lot of “as long as” for a market sitting near major psychological milestones.

When you see the Dow holding up, the Nasdaq slipping, yields drifting lower, the dollar soft, and gold refusing to cool off — you’re not looking at a confident expansion. You’re looking at a market trying to keep its balance.

And right now, everything looks like it’s balancing on a pin.

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