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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                  January 7, 2026                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Hump Day: When Everything Rallies, Something Usually Gets Ignored

If 2026 were a movie, the first week is already trying to convince us it’s a feel‑good sequel: stocks up, bitcoin up, and silver ripping to fresh records above $80 an ounce while gold presses back toward its all‑time highs.

On Tuesday, the Dow closed above 49,000 for the first time (ending around 49,462), with the S&P 500 also finishing at a record and the Nasdaq rising as well. Silver finished above $80 for the first time, and spot gold climbed to roughly $4,485—still below its late‑December record, but close enough to make the market feel like new milestones are inevitable. Bitcoin joined the party too, hovering around the low‑to‑mid $93,000s.

That kind of “everything is working” tape is powerful—because it tempts people into believing the hard part is over.

The blind spot: the Fed isn’t rushing to cut this month

Here’s what’s odd: despite this broad optimism, rate expectations for the next Fed meeting are not screaming “emergency easing.” Fed funds futures have been pricing a relatively low chance of a January cut (the market is largely leaning toward a hold), and Fed officials have been signaling caution about moving too quickly.

So why is everything still levitating?

Because the market is trading a different idea: not “cuts this month,” but “policy will lean easier over time, and liquidity will be managed to prevent accidents.” That belief—more than any single data point—has become the true fuel.

The economy is whispering a different story

Under the cheering, the real economy is not exactly waving green flags.

The ISM manufacturing index slid further into contraction as 2025 ended (still below 50, indicating shrinkage). Manufacturing isn’t the entire economy—but it’s often where weakening demand shows up early, especially when credit and inventories start to matter again.

And we’re heading into fresh labor data soon. If the jobs trend confirms cooling, the market will initially cheer (“more reason for cuts later”). But there’s a fine line between “cooling” and “cracking.” If unemployment starts moving up faster than expected, sentiment can flip abruptly—especially in a market priced for calm.

The “cheap oil from Venezuela” dream meets the “Iran risk” reality

A major pillar of this early‑January optimism is the hope that Venezuela becomes a source of future “cheap oil.” Markets love that story because it sounds like a free gift: lower energy costs, lower inflation pressure, friendlier policy.

But there are two problems:

1.     Venezuela’s oil rebound is not a light switch. Even companies that can process Venezuelan crude emphasize that meaningful output restoration would require huge long‑term investment, and the industry is still dealing with years of deterioration and uncertainty.

2.     Iran is heading the opposite direction. The protests and crackdown risk destabilizing a region where energy “surprises” have historically been the kind that arrive fast—and don’t come with a discount.

So the market is simultaneously pricing a future of easier energy… while a geopolitical spark is already lit elsewhere. That’s not impossible. It’s just not as clean as the rally implies.

Why silver matters even if the stock market doesn’t care

Silver above $80 is not a normal headline. It’s not a “nice rally.” It’s a message—especially when it happens while equity volatility stays tame and stock indexes keep hitting records.

Silver tends to surge when traders believe one (or more) of these things:

  • future inflation risk is underpriced,
  • policy will stay looser than the public narrative admits,
  • or confidence in “paper stability” is slipping—even if the surface looks calm.

In other words, silver is acting like a smoke alarm in a house where everyone is hosting a party.

Someone will be wrong—here’s the mismatch

The current market setup is trying to believe all of these can be true at once:

  • stocks deserve record highs because growth and earnings are solid,
  • inflation will keep behaving,
  • the Fed will eventually cut enough to support markets,
  • oil will get cheaper (helping inflation),
  • and precious metals should soar anyway.

That’s a lot of “good outcomes” to stack together. When markets pile up that many reminders of perfection, the risk is that one disappointment forces a broad rethink—and the rethink happens quickly because positioning is already leaning optimistic.

What to watch today and into the week

  • Jobs data and labor commentary: not just the headline number—watch unemployment and wage trends.
  • Oil: does the market keep believing in “future cheap supply,” or does geopolitics take control of the narrative?
  • Gold vs. stocks: if both keep rising together, it’s often a sign of optimism and distrust—an unstable mix.
  • Silver’s behavior: if it continues to spike while volatility stays low, that gap is usually telling you complacency is growing.

Bottom line

This is a roaring start to 2026—and the rally feels broad enough to be self‑reinforcing for a while.

But the more markets behave like nothing can go wrong, the more fragile they become. January doesn’t need a catastrophe to create a shake‑up. It only needs a single reality check—on jobs, oil, or inflation—that arrives when everyone is already leaning the same way.

 

 

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