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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                November 14, 2025                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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After the Air Pocket

Thursday finally blinked. Tech led a hard downdraft, the majors slid, and small caps fared worse. After months of “everything up,” the tape reminded everyone that valuation air gets thin at altitude.

 

Here’s what changed—and what it means for today:

 

  • The drop was broad and big. The S&P 500 and Dow each fell about 1.7%, the Nasdaq ~2.3%, and the Russell 2000 nearly 3%. That’s not rotation—that’s de-risking.
  • The cut path looks less automatic. Fed rhetoric has drifted from “how many” cuts to “maybe not next month,” which tightens financial conditions even after a quarter-point trim.
  • Risk proxies cracked together. Bitcoin broke below $100,000; metals eased off recent highs. When crypto, AI, and small caps all bleed on the same day, positioning—not a single headline—is in the dock.
  • The data vacuum is ending—awkwardly. With the shutdown over, reports will trickle back, but they’ll be messy at first (some series partial, others delayed). One ugly print can swing the narrative fast.

 

Is a bigger tumble ahead? Watch these tells:

 

1.     Real yields and the long end. If the 10-year keeps backing up, the multiple loses oxygen regardless of one-off cuts.

2.     Breadth. Another red day with decliners swamping advancers would confirm this isn’t just mega-cap noise.

3.     Credit. Wider high-yield spreads that stick (not a one-day flinch) turn de-risking into a process.

4.     Auctions. A sloppy Treasury sale that pushes term premium higher will amplify equity stress.

5.     First post-shutdown prints. A weak jobs read, even in partial form, could flip the market right back to “faster cuts” chatter—while a hot inflation proxy would do the opposite.

 

Bottom line: Thursday looked like a positioning break, not yet a regime change. If yields firm, breadth stays weak, and early data disappoint, the air pocket can become a downdraft. If auctions land cleanly and the first prints are soft-but-not-scary, bulls get another pass—just with less room to wander.

 

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