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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                November 19, 2025                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Gravity into Year-End

Four red days in a row and the Dow now sits below its 50-day moving average. Price action says the path of least resistance has turned lower. The rally didn’t just stall; it flipped from “buy dips” to “sell strength.”

 

Why this feels different

 

  • Trend break: Slipping under the 50-DMA after a big up-leg usually changes behavior—bounces get sold, not chased.
  • Cut odds fading: Fewer/slow cuts keep the long end sticky, which presses equity multiples even without new data.
  • Confidence crack: Bitcoin’s break and weak breadth say it’s not one sector—it’s risk appetite.

 

My read for the rest of 2025

 

  • Base case (55%) – Drift lower, sharp rallies sold. Indexes chop but close the year 3–7% below the recent peaks. Bounces struggle at the declining 50-DMA; leadership remains narrow.
  • Downside (30%) – Credit wobble, quick air-pocket. A widening in high-yield spreads or a sloppy Treasury auction turns the drift into a 10–12% pullback from highs before buyers return.
  • Upside (15%) – Soft data + soothing Fed. A friendly print and calmer yields spark a short “Santa” rally, but breadth remains thin and gains aren’t sticky.

 

Signals that decide it

 

  • 50-DMA test: First back-test of the 50-DMA is the tell. Rejection = trend down remains. Reclaim and hold = damage contained.
  • Breadth and credit: Advancers vs. decliners and high-yield spreads will confirm whether this is rotation or de-risking.
  • The long end: A grind higher in 10-year yields tightens financial conditions and keeps pressure on valuation.
  •  

Tactical map

 

  • Respect lower highs and use the 50-DMA as your risk line.
  • Prefer quality balance sheets and shorter duration in equities; keep hedges on bounces.
  • Metals holding above their breakout shelves signal that the insurance bid is alive—even if they don’t make new highs daily.

 

Bottom line: Momentum flipped. Until price retakes and holds the 50-DMA with improving breadth, assume rallies are for risk reduction, not celebration.

 

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