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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* January 8,
2026 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web address:
http://www.fiendbear.com
*
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Fiend Commentary
================
50,000
Is a Magnet—But Wednesday Brings a Reality Check
After a
white‑hot start to 2026, Wednesday delivered the market’s first reminder
that round numbers don’t come with airbags. The Dow is still within shouting
distance of 50,000, but the “everything is easy again” narrative ran into two
stubborn obstacles: a cooling labor market and a rising pile of policy
uncertainty that markets have been politely ignoring.
What
happened (and why it matters)
That mix
tells a familiar story: when investors get nervous, they don’t sell “the
market” equally. They sell the crowded parts of the economy (cyclicals,
financials, anything policy‑exposed) and hide in a smaller set of
perceived all‑weather winners. The irony is that narrow leadership can
keep indexes looking healthy… right up until it can’t.
The real
headline: the labor market is cooling, quietly
Wednesday’s labor data didn’t scream recession, but it did underline a trend
that’s been building: less hiring, less churn, and fewer openings—a “no
hire, no fire” economy. Job openings fell to 7.146 million in November
(a 14‑month low), while hiring slowed again. Layoffs remain relatively
low, but the broader direction is clear: labor demand is fading, and employers
are cautious.
This matters
because markets have been pricing a future where the Fed can “fine‑tune”
the economy—cut a little here, add liquidity there, keep asset prices buoyant,
and glide into a soft landing. A slow‑motion labor fade is exactly the
kind of backdrop that tempts policymakers toward easier money… and also the
kind that can erode earnings power underneath record stock prices.
Rates, the
dollar, and the strange comfort of “nothing happening”
The 10‑year Treasury yield is still hovering around the mid‑4%
area, and the dollar index is firming near 98–99. That’s not the
classic backdrop for a speculative melt‑up in hard assets—yet the
precious metals complex is still acting like it senses something structural,
not just cyclical.
In other
words: the bond market is signaling caution, the dollar is holding together,
but investors still want insurance.
Gold and
silver: still the loudest alarm, even on a down day
Thursday morning showed a pause in the metals:
Even with
that dip, the bigger picture hasn’t changed: these are not “normal” prices, and
the metal market is still behaving like trust is gradually leaking—trust in
stable policy, stable purchasing power, and stable geopolitics.
One under‑the‑radar
factor worth watching: commodity index rebalancing can create short‑term
selling pressure even when the longer‑term trend remains intact. That can
produce sharp pullbacks that feel “mysterious” in the moment—especially in a
market as crowded and emotional as silver.
Oil and
geopolitics: the disinflation story may be too neat
The market would love a simple storyline: Venezuela equals more supply, cheaper
oil, lower inflation, and therefore easier Fed policy with no consequences. But
Washington’s posture suggests the situation may be more complicated than “cheap
crude is coming.”
Oil
stabilized after recent weakness, with crude prices rebounding modestly.
Translation: traders are trying to price a moving target—policy, logistics, and
geopolitics all at once. If oil stays subdued, it buys the Fed time. If it
doesn’t, the “cut rates and celebrate” narrative gets harder.
Why Dow
50,000 feels inevitable—and why that’s exactly the trap
Round numbers pull prices the way gravity pulls objects. They attract
headlines, inflows, and performance‑chasing. They also attract profit‑taking,
hedging, and “sell‑the‑news” behavior once the milestone hits.
So yes—50,000
may be a magnet. But magnets don’t tell you what happens after contact. The
more important question is: what is the market standing on?
Right now,
it’s standing on a belief that:
1.
growth can cool without breaking,
2.
the Fed can remain friendly without reigniting inflation,
and
3.
policy shocks (tariffs, housing interventions, sudden
geopolitical turns) will remain “background noise.”
That is a
lot of belief for a market trading at record levels.
What to
watch next
Bottom line
The rally didn’t end on Wednesday—it merely exhaled. But the market is starting
to bump into reality: labor demand is cooling, policy risk is rising, and the
metals market is still acting like the punchline of “inflation is solved”
hasn’t landed.
Dow 50,000
might still arrive soon. The question is whether it arrives as a victory lap…
or as a warning flare.
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