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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 July 10, 2026                             *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
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The Market Has Learned to Stop Worrying

Thursday’s rally was impressive mostly because of what it ignored.

The ceasefire is over. The shooting has resumed. The Strait remains uncertain. Oil is still reacting to headlines. Bond yields remain elevated. The Fed is divided. Inflation is still too high. The dollar’s rally has stalled. And yet stocks moved higher again as if the week’s geopolitical stress was just another brief interruption in the bull-market script.

That has been the defining feature of 2026: Wall Street has become very good at turning bad news into a buying opportunity.

The Nasdaq led the way Thursday, powered again by chip stocks and AI enthusiasm. Micron and other semiconductor names bounced sharply, and the market immediately went back to its favorite trade: buy the leaders, assume the geopolitical risk is contained, and move on. The S&P 500 rose as well, and the Dow gained modestly.

This is not panic. It is almost the opposite of panic.

It is risk fatigue.

Investors have heard “Iran,” “Strait,” “oil shock,” “Fed hike,” and “inflation” so many times now that the words have lost some of their impact. The first headline moves markets. The second gets traded. The third gets faded. By the fourth, traders are already looking for the bounce.

That may work, but it also creates a dangerous complacency.

Oil is the best example. Crude fell again Thursday even with the fighting continuing. The market seems to be saying that the latest flare-up will not seriously interrupt supply, or that economic weakness will cap demand even if the geopolitical risk persists. Brent and WTI remain well below the panic levels from earlier this year, and every drop in crude gives stocks another excuse to rally.

But lower oil does not mean the conflict is solved. It may mean supply fears are being discounted. It may also mean the global economy is not as strong as the stock market suggests. Either way, it is not a clean “all clear.”

The bond market is still the quiet warning. Yields may move around day to day, but they remain high enough to keep pressure on the entire financial system. A 10-year yield in the mid-4% range and a 30-year still flirting with the 5% area are not the backdrop of easy money. They are the backdrop of expensive mortgages, higher corporate refinancing costs, and more stress on government interest expense.

The stock market keeps acting as if those numbers are manageable. Maybe they are, as long as earnings keep rising and AI keeps delivering. But the longer yields stay elevated, the harder it becomes to justify extreme valuations in the narrow group of stocks doing most of the lifting.

The dollar is another tell. Its rally has stalled, which could help commodities and metals on the margin, but it also shows that the market is not giving the U.S. policy mix a blank check. If the Fed talks tough but fails to act, the dollar could weaken again. If the Fed does act, risk assets may not like it. Either path has a cost.

For now, Wall Street is choosing the easiest interpretation:

  • the war will not spiral,
  • oil will remain contained,
  • inflation will cool,
  • the Fed will avoid anything too disruptive,
  • and AI/tech will keep carrying the indexes.

That is the optimistic path. It is also a narrow one.

The week is ending on a strong note, but strength is not the same as safety. The market has rallied despite uncertainty in almost every major category: geopolitics, inflation, rates, oil, crypto, metals, and the Fed. That tells us confidence is still abundant.

It may also tell us complacency is abundant.

The next test is whether the market keeps ignoring risk because the risks truly fade — or whether investors have simply become too accustomed to being rescued by the next headline, the next bounce, or the next dip-buying wave.

For now, the bulls still have control.

But the list of things being ignored keeps getting longer.

 

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