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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* August 29,
2025 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web address:
http://www.fiendbear.com
*
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Fiend Commentary
================
Hot Tape,
Hot Data, Cold Dilemma
Fresh record
closes for the Dow and S&P 500 land alongside market odds
still putting a ~85% chance on a September cut. But the setup is
fragile: PCE arrives next, and Q2 GDP >3% just reminded
everyone that growth isn’t exactly limping.
If PCE runs
hot, the case for an “insurance cut” morphs into a credibility risk:
cutting into firm growth and sticky prices risks a higher term premium,
a steeper curve, and pressure on stretched multiples. If the Fed cuts anyway—amid
open political pressure—the bond market may assert itself with higher long
yields, regardless of the front-end move.
If the Fed hesitates
instead, markets must reprice “two cuts” to one—or none. Either path
tightens the narrative that’s fueled the melt-up: easy policy, tame inflation,
no growth scare.
Opinion, not
advice:
records are celebrating tomorrow’s cut; PCE will decide whether it looks
like flexibility—or a policy mistake. In this tape, the last word
may belong less to stocks than to bonds.
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