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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                  January 6, 2026                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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The Market’s New Superpower Is Ignoring Risk

Monday felt like the opening scene of a new year that wants to be simple—maybe even too simple.

Stocks rallied hard, and not in a “carefully optimistic” way. In a single session the Dow jumped more than 1% to a fresh record close near 49,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also finished higher. Energy stocks led, riding a surge of excitement around Venezuela. The market’s logic was straightforward: if Venezuelan oil ever flows more freely again, that’s a potential pressure-release valve on energy prices, inflation expectations, and the Fed’s future path.

At the same time, the headlines are anything but simple. Iran is dealing with spreading protests and a deteriorating economic backdrop, and the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s leader has clearly rattled Tehran—at least according to reporting that officials now worry Iran could be the “next victim” of an aggressive U.S. posture. In other words, geopolitical volatility is rising… while financial-market volatility is falling.

That contradiction is the story.

Why this feels like “late 2025 part two”

The market is behaving as if it has a new operating system:

  • Bad news isn’t bearish if it keeps the Fed cautious.
  • Geopolitical shocks aren’t bearish if investors believe they ultimately reduce inflation (via cheaper oil) or increase liquidity (via easier policy).
  • Even “safe haven” assets can rally alongside stocks if the real driver is a broad loss of confidence in paper promises and a hunger for scarce, hard assets.

This is how you get a world where investors buy stocks and buy gold. It’s not logical in an academic sense. It’s logical in a “the rules have changed” sense.

The hidden recession signal: the economy is whispering while the market is shouting

While Monday’s tape looked bullish, the economic undercurrent did not.

The latest ISM manufacturing number showed the factory sector slipping further into contraction territory, and importantly it wasn’t just “soft”—it was described as a 14‑month low. Manufacturing isn’t the whole economy, but it’s often the canary in the coal mine: new orders soften, hiring slows, and credit stress shows up where pricing power is weakest.

Then add this: a voting Fed official (Kashkari) openly flagged the risk that unemployment could “pop” higher. That’s not a throwaway line. When policymakers start talking that way, they’re telling you what they’re watching—and what could force their hand later.

So we have a market celebrating “good outcomes,” while the economy quietly stacks kindling.

Why January could still deliver a shake-up

If you’re looking for the most realistic “apple cart” risks for January, they cluster around three themes:

1) Data returns—and it might not match the story the market is pricing.
Markets can float on narratives when information is scarce. When the calendar fills up again with jobs data, inflation reads, and activity gauges, the market loses the luxury of trading vibes. If the incoming numbers confirm slowing growth without confirming falling inflation, the Fed gets boxed in.

2) The “cheap oil” dream collides with the “Middle East risk” reality.
Venezuela optimism is a long lead-time story. Oil infrastructure doesn’t snap back overnight, and policy risk doesn’t evaporate because traders want it to. Meanwhile, Iran instability can go from “background noise” to “front page shock” fast—especially if it threatens supply routes or drags in outside actors. That’s the kind of risk markets tend to price only after it hurts.

3) Complacency itself becomes the accelerant.
When the VIX is calm, leverage creeps in. Positions get crowded. Investors stop paying for protection. And then a surprise—economic or geopolitical—creates an air pocket. The first break is usually “orderly.” The second is where it gets ugly, because everyone tries to exit through the same door.

The metals message: “We don’t believe this ends cleanly”

One reason gold and silver strength matters isn’t just the price—it’s what the bid means. Metals don’t need a narrative as much as they need distrust: distrust in the currency, distrust in the policy framework, distrust in the idea that inflation will be painlessly contained while debts keep compounding.

This is why the metals rally can coexist with stock-market optimism. Stocks are trading the near-term idea that liquidity and lower energy costs can keep the party going. Metals are trading the longer-term fear that the party ends the same way many parties end: with a bigger bill than anyone wants to pay.

What to watch this week

If you want a clean checklist for the next few sessions:

  • Jobs and labor-market signals: anything that confirms cooling is “Fed-friendly” until it becomes “recessionary.”
  • Oil: does the market keep treating oil as a future disinflation gift, or does geopolitics start pushing it the other way?
  • The dollar: if risk is “on” and the dollar still struggles, that’s often a sign the global market is slowly de-rating U.S. policy credibility.
  • Breadth and leadership: if only a narrow group of stocks holds the indexes up, record highs can turn fragile quickly.

Bottom line

So far, 2026 is acting like an extension of late 2025: risk assets levitating, hard assets refusing to cool off, and investors increasingly convinced that every problem ultimately resolves into some combination of easier policy and more liquidity.

That works—until it doesn’t.

January’s danger isn’t that something might happen. It’s that everyone is positioned as if nothing can happen.

 

 

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