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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                December 26, 2025                          *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Silver’s Christmas Gift: A Breakout That’s Hard to Ignore

No trading on Christmas, but the metals market didn’t take the holiday off.

In thin overnight trade Friday, silver surged to the $75 area—a level that doesn’t just represent a new high, but a psychological line in the sand. Gold also stayed firmly above $4,500, reinforcing that this isn’t a one‑day curiosity—it’s a message. When both metals are printing records at the same time, it usually means investors are not merely “bullish.” They’re increasingly unwilling to trust that inflation, policy, and currency stability will all glide neatly into place.

What makes this move so unusual is the surrounding mood. Stocks are still hovering near record highs and the market’s “fear gauge” has been sitting near multi‑month lows. That combination—calm equities, cheap volatility, and runaway silver—tends to show up when complacency and hedging are happening in different corners of the same room. The equity crowd is still leaning on the “soft landing / policy backstop” narrative, while the metals crowd appears to be quietly voting for “something’s off.”

Why silver is the one acting possessed

Gold can grind higher on central-bank buying, geopolitics, or a slow drift toward easier policy.

Silver is different. It’s smaller, thinner, and more emotional. When money flows in, it doesn’t drip—it pours. And once a breakout gets underway, silver often becomes the market’s most dramatic “stress barometer,” because it responds not just to inflation concerns but also to the broader sense that credit is easy, liquidity will return whenever stress appears, and hard assets are the only honest insurance policy.

This doesn’t mean the rally is “safe” or that it goes up in a straight line. Quite the opposite.

Yes, a sharp drop is still likely—and it wouldn’t kill the bull

The fastest bull markets include some of the ugliest pullbacks. Silver has a long history of air pockets—sudden drops that shake out late buyers, reset positioning, and then either resume higher or mark a major top.

So the right way to think about this isn’t “will it correct?” It’s:

  • Does silver hold above the breakout zone when the selling finally hits?
  • Does the dip get bought quickly, or does it feel heavy and panicky?
  • Does gold stay resilient while silver whipsaws?

If silver can digest $70+ without collapsing back into the old range, that’s often how you get the next leg—because a former ceiling becomes a floor.

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The last week of trading: thin tape, big implications

The final week of the year is notorious for distorted signals:

  • liquidity is thinner,
  • moves can be exaggerated,
  • and year‑end positioning can create strange cross‑currents.

But a record is still a record. The market is choosing to “pay up” for bullion even while it’s refusing to “pay up” for protection in stocks. That mismatch is exactly what makes this moment feel like a late‑cycle tell.

Looking into 2026: the uncertainty isn’t just “inflation”

If 2025 was the year the public started noticing metals again, 2026 could be the year the market is forced to choose between three uncomfortable paths:

1.     Inflation drifts higher while policy stays easy.
That keeps the metals bid and undermines confidence in the “back to 2%” storyline.

2.     Growth slows hard and credit stress shows up.
That can hit stocks quickly (deflationary shock), but it often ends with authorities responding in a way that eventually supports hard assets again.

3.     The bond market pushes back.
If long yields rise even as the Fed leans easier, financial conditions can tighten in an unhelpful way—bad for valuations, bad for deficits, and very messy politically.

Add a renewed shutdown risk in the background, and you also have the possibility of periodic data fog returning—exactly the kind of environment where narratives can drive prices farther than fundamentals would normally allow.

For now, the simplest summary is this:

Silver at $75 with calm equities is not a “normal” signal. It’s a loud one.

And loud signals tend to matter most right before the calendar flips.

 

 

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