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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* October 24,
2025 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web
address: http://www.fiendbear.com *
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Fiend Commentary
================
Yields slip,
metals churn, cuts priced in.
The market heads into the weekend with the 10-year hovering near (and recently
below) 4%, stocks still perched near records, and gold and silver digesting a
parabolic run. In a normal month, a big CPI print would decide the tone. In
this one, the shutdown has turned the dashboard dark, so price is doing the
talking.
Bonds are
saying slowdown—duration keeps getting a bid. Metals are saying
credibility—even after a sharp shakeout, gold sits near fresh highs and silver
is still orbiting the 50s. Equities, meanwhile, are saying support—rate cuts
remain the base case into year-end. One tape buys the relief;
another buys insurance. That’s not contradiction. It’s the same wager expressed
two ways: ease now, solve later.
What can
break the spell?
A real-yield
snapback (hot inflation once the data resume, or a
hawkish pivot) that cools both multiples and metals.
Credit
blinking (spreads widen, funding stress) that turns “buy the dip” into “de-risk
now.”
A dollar
jolt—a stronger greenback would test commodities and the export tailwind.
Near-term
tells: if gold holds above the $4,000 breakout and silver defends the $50 line
without the curve flipping back to comfy contango, the message is “scarcity
> carry,” and pullbacks remain resets, not reversals. If the 10-year drifts
under 4% on good auction demand, the equity multiple keeps its cushion—for now.
Bottom line:
With the data spigot still sputtering, the market is writing its own narrative.
Bonds price the slowdown, metals price the cost of treating it, and stocks
price the medicine. That trio can coexist for a while—but not forever.
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