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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                  May 1, 2026                              *

*                                                                           *

*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary
================

April 2026: A Relief Rally on an Inflation Fault Line

April ended with a market that looked triumphant on the surface and increasingly conflicted underneath.

The scoreboard says “strong month.” The S&P 500 finished at 7,209, the Nasdaq at 24,892, and both logged their biggest monthly gains in years. The Dow also posted a solid advance. On the surface, that looks like a clear vote of confidence that the war shock has been contained and that the U.S. economy is still resilient enough to carry risk assets higher.

But the deeper story of April is more fragile than the index levels suggest.

What April was really about

April began with the market pricing war, oil, and shipping chaos. It ended with stocks celebrating a return to “normal” that has not fully arrived.

Yes, there was a ceasefire phase. Yes, the fear of an immediate oil crisis cooled. But oil still ended the month elevated, with WTI around $106 and Brent around $112 at Thursday’s close—nowhere near the comfort zone of a few months ago. That is not the price of a market that believes the global energy system has normalized. It is the price of a market that believes the worst may have been postponed.

And postponed is not the same thing as solved.

Inflation moved the wrong way

The big macro development in April was not just oil. It was the way higher energy costs fed into the inflation data.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, rose 0.7% in March, the fastest monthly gain since mid-2022, and the yearly rate climbed to 3.5%, the highest since May 2023. Core PCE held at 3.2%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. In plain English: inflation is not drifting toward “mission accomplished.” It is moving away from it again.

That was before the full second-round effects of sustained $100-ish oil, shipping delays, and higher fuel costs have really had time to work through the economy.

This is why the month-end rally feels so strange. Stocks ripped higher while the inflation story deteriorated.

Gold and silver: they lost the month, but not the message

One of the most interesting features of April was what didn’t happen: the metals never really collapsed.

Gold ended the month around $4,619, up on the day but still down for the month. Silver finished near $74 and was also down for the month. On paper, that makes them “losers” in April. In context, it says something else: even under pressure from a stronger short-term rates narrative and high oil, they held far above the old pre-breakout world.

That matters because the bull case in metals is no longer just “the Fed will cut soon.” It is increasingly about distrust in the longer-run policy mix:

  • high deficits,
  • recurring geopolitical disruption,
  • and a central bank that is trying to talk tough while its balance sheet edges higher again.

The balance sheet and the rate story

The market spent much of April debating whether the Fed would end up cutting later in 2026. By month-end, that optimism had faded sharply.

Reuters noted that futures markets had wiped out all bets on Fed easing this year, with even a one-in-three chance of a rate hike by next April. The Fed didn’t actually tighten in April, but the market stopped assuming easy money was automatically around the corner.

At the same time, the Fed’s balance sheet continues to look less like a shrinking war chest and more like something that is quietly stabilizing and re-expanding. Officially, that is “reserve management,” not QE. In market language, it still means liquidity is no longer being drained the way it was.

That contradiction—hawkish talk, easing hopes fading, but the balance sheet creeping higher—is one reason April felt so schizophrenic.

Bonds and the dollar told a different story

The 30-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5% in April, and the 10-year yield moved back up into the mid-4s. That is not a sign of easy financial conditions. It is the bond market charging a higher premium for duration at the same time stocks were trying to celebrate.

Meanwhile, the dollar weakened into month-end. That is another signal worth taking seriously. A weaker dollar while oil stays elevated and inflation heats up is not a “clean risk-on” backdrop. It’s a sign that capital is not treating U.S. policy as a completely stable anchor.

So what does May look like?

There are really two broad paths:

1) More of the same
If the ceasefire limps along, oil stays high-but-not-explosive, and earnings remain good enough, stocks can keep climbing. That’s the market’s preferred story. It would likely mean continued optimism, more records, and a lot of investors deciding inflation is somebody else’s problem.

2) Another reversal
If oil stays elevated into mid-May, if shipping and insurance costs remain strained, and if the next inflation prints reflect it, then April’s rally starts to look like the market buying the ending before it exists. In that case, the bond market could reassert itself, and equities may discover that 7,200 on the S&P was more wish than wisdom.

Bottom line

April was a huge month for stocks. But it was also a month where:

  • inflation rose sharply,
  • oil stayed historically elevated,
  • long bond yields flirted with 5%,
  • the dollar weakened,
  • and metals, while down on the month, held far above their old ranges.

That is not a clean “all clear.”

It is a market saying: we think this will work out.

May will tell us whether that was confidence—or just another form of hope.



Index  04/30/26  Mn Chng  Mnth %  Yr Chng  Year % 2K Chg*   2000 %

------ --------  -------  ------  -------  ------ --------  ------

Dow30  49652.14  3310.63    7.1%  1588.85    3.3% 38155.02  331.9%

Trans  20793.52  2183.97   11.7%  3436.33   19.8% 17816.32  598.4%

Utils   1165.16     6.24    0.5%    97.09    9.1%   881.80  311.2%

S&P500  7209.01   680.49   10.4%   363.51    5.3%  5739.76  390.7%

Nasdaq 24892.31  3301.68   15.3%  1650.32    7.1% 20823.00  511.7%

NYSE   23144.64  1055.21    4.8%  1140.71    5.2%     N/A     N/A

Rus2000 2799.91   303.54   12.2%   318.00   12.8%  2295.16  454.7%

Amex    9172.26   346.70    3.9%  2305.47   33.6%  8303.52  955.8%

Val Lne13221.92   965.06    7.9%  1007.35    8.2% 12196.12 1188.9%

30Yr Tr   49.80     0.90   -1.8%     1.40   -2.9%   -15.00   23.1%

Bnk Idx  170.06    15.75   10.2%     5.88    3.6%    93.06  120.9%

MSH 35  8231.41  1499.80   22.3%   906.83   12.4%  7310.63  794.0%

Housing  682.45    53.81    8.6%    18.16    2.7%     N/A     N/A

Airline   59.48    -0.77   -1.3%   -10.77  -15.3%   -93.99  -61.2%

Retail  7940.68  1265.19   19.0%   749.05   10.4%     N/A     N/A

          

* Change since 12/31/1999

 

Winners-Losers              18-12         18-12

Dow Industrials    Apr-30  Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg Year %

---------------    ------  ------ ------ ------ ------

Intel               94.48   50.35 114.1%  57.58 156.0%  

UnitedHealth       370.48   99.89  36.9%  40.37  12.2%  

Amazon             265.06   56.79  27.3%  34.24  14.8%  

Caterpillar        890.11  181.65  25.6% 317.24  55.4%  

Cisco               91.50   13.91  17.9%  14.47  18.8%              

Boeing             229.03   30.00  15.1%  11.91   5.5%  

Microsoft          407.78   37.61  10.2% -75.84 -15.7%  

Goldman Sachs      923.77   77.78   9.2%  44.77   5.1%  

Visa               329.84   27.60   9.1% -20.87  -6.0%  

Disney             103.75    7.37   7.6% -10.02  -8.8%  

Apple              271.35   17.56   6.9%  -0.51  -0.2%  

American Exprss    323.05   20.57   6.8% -46.90 -12.7%  

JP Morgan Chase    313.23   19.07   6.5%  -8.99  -2.8%  

Wal-Mart           131.93    7.65   6.2%  20.52  18.4%  

Travelers          305.14   13.46   4.6%  15.08   5.2%  

Coca-Cola           78.76    2.71   3.6%   8.85  12.7%  

Procter-Gamble     147.09    2.65   1.8%   3.78   2.6%  

Minn Mining Mnf    146.52    1.29   0.9% -13.58  -8.5%  

Home Depot         328.80   -0.09   0.0% -15.30  -4.4%  

Amgen              346.25   -5.60  -1.6%  18.94   5.8%  

Dow                 40.49   -1.16  -2.8%  17.11  73.2%  

Verizon Comm        48.03   -2.17  -4.3%   7.30  17.9%  

IBM                230.98  -11.41  -4.7% -65.23 -22.0%  

Honeywell          214.33  -11.70  -5.2%  19.24   9.9%  

SalesForce.com     176.53  -10.14  -5.4% -88.38 -33.4%  

McDonald's         293.59  -17.20  -5.5% -12.04  -3.9%  

Johnson-Johnson    229.85  -14.59  -6.0%  22.90  11.1%  

Chevron-Texaco     193.31  -13.59  -6.6%  40.90  26.8%  

Merck              109.18  -11.11  -9.2%   3.92   3.7%  

Nike                44.36   -8.46 -16.0% -19.35 -30.4%  

 

 

                            Fiend's Prime-25©

                            -----------------

                                                      

Winners-Losers                18-7           10-15

    Company        Apr-30   Mn Chg   Month  Yr Chg Year %

---------------   -------  -------  ------ ------- ------

AMD                354.49   151.06   74.3%  140.33  65.5%  

Micron Tech        517.16   179.32   53.1%  231.75  81.2%  

Broadcom           417.43   107.92   34.9%   71.33  20.6%  

Google             381.94    95.08   33.1%   68.14  21.7%  

Amazon             265.06    56.79   27.3%   34.24  14.8%  

NVIDIA             199.57    25.17   14.4%   13.07   7.0%  

Microsoft          407.78    37.61   10.2%  -75.84 -15.7%  

Oracle             161.39    14.28    9.7%  -33.52 -17.2%  

Bank of America     53.46     4.71    9.7%   -1.54  -2.8%  

Visa Inc.          329.84    27.60    9.1%  -20.87  -6.0%  

Meta (FB)          611.91    39.78    7.0%  -48.18  -7.3%  

Apple Comp         271.35    17.56    6.9%   -0.51  -0.2%  

JP Morgan Chase    313.23    19.07    6.5%   -8.99  -2.8%  

Walmart            131.93     7.65    6.2%   20.52  18.4%  

Tesla              381.63     9.88    2.7%  -68.09 -15.1%  

Costco            1014.53    18.10    1.8%  152.19  17.6%  

Eli Lilly          934.60    14.83    1.6% -140.08 -13.0%  

Mastercard         502.92     3.26    0.7%  -67.96 -11.9%  

Home Depot         328.80    -0.09    0.0%  -15.30  -4.4%  

Berkshire Hath     473.60    -5.60   -1.2%  -29.05  -5.8%  

Netflix             93.61    -2.54   -2.6%   -0.15  -0.2%  

Abbvie             211.32    -6.17   -2.8%  -17.17  -7.5%  

Palantir Tech      139.11    -7.17   -4.9%  -38.64 -21.7%  

Johnson-Johnson    229.85   -14.59   -6.0%   22.90  11.1%  

Exxon Mobil        154.33   -15.33   -9.0%   33.99  28.2%

 

Prime-25©        34252.15  4120.44   13.7% 1251.71   3.8%

 

 

RNK      Company         (Bil)   P/E   Yield Symb      Sector

--- -----------------   ------ ------- ----- ----   ---------------

 1. NVIDIA              $4850   40.73  0.02% NVDA    Technology  

 2. Google              $4616   35.33  0.22% GOOG    Communication

 3. Apple               $3989   34.35  0.38% AAPL    Technology  

 4. Microsoft           $3030   25.52  0.85% MSFT    Technology  

 5. Amazon              $2844   36.97  0.00% AMZN    Consumer    

 6. Broadcom            $1979   81.37  0.59% AVGO    Technology  

 7. Meta (FB)           $1548   26.05  0.34% META    Communication

 8. Tesla               $1431  353.36  0.00% TSLA    Consumer    

 9. Walmart             $1051   48.33  0.72% WMT     Consumer    

10. Berkshire Hath      $1023   15.26  0.00% BRK-B   Financial   

11. Eli Lilly            $883   41.37  0.67% LLY     Healthcare  

12. JP Morgan Chase      $846   15.00  1.88% JPM     Financial   

13. Exxon Mobil          $645   23.07  2.62% XOM     Energy      

14. Visa Inc.            $628   31.26  0.76% V       Financial   

15. Micron Tech          $584   24.42  0.09% MU      Technology  

16. AMD                  $578  134.28  0.00% AMD     Technology  

17. Johnson-Johnson      $554   26.57  2.26% JNJ     Healthcare  

18. Oracle               $465   28.97  1.24% ORCL    Technology  

19. Costco               $450   52.76  0.51% COST    Consumer    

20. Mastercard           $446   30.44  0.65% MA      Financial   

21. Netflix              $394   30.29  0.00% NFLX    Communication

22. Bank of America      $384   13.27  2.06% BAC     Financial   

23. Abbvie               $374   89.54  3.23% ABBV    Healthcare  

24. Palantir             $332  220.81  0.00% PLTR    Technology  

25. Home Depot           $327   23.09  2.81% HD      Consumer    

    

     Prime-25©         $34,252   33.78  0.51%                    

 

Changes for 2026:

 

PLTR Palantir, AMD, and MU Micron Tech were added while

CRM SalesForce, PG Procter-Gamble, and UNH UnitedHealth were removed.

 

 

                                    Currencies

                                    ----------

                                                   

Crrncy   Apr-30  Mn Chg  Mnth %   Yr Chg  Year %  2K Chg*  2000 %

------  -------  ------  ------   ------  ------  -------  ------

Pound    136.04    3.77    2.9%     1.56    1.2%   -25.86  -16.0%

SwFrnc   127.98    2.88    2.3%     1.98    1.6%    64.51  101.6%

Euro     117.32    1.79    1.5%     0.00    0.0%    15.71   15.5%

Yen       63.90    0.94    1.5%     0.13    0.2%   -35.02  -35.4%

US Dlr    98.06   -1.90   -1.9%    -0.26   -0.3%    -3.36   -3.3%

               

    

                                    Commodities

                                    -----------

 Apr                                             

Cmmdty    Apr-30   Mn Chg  Mnth %   Yr Chg  Year % 2K Chng*  2000 %

------ ---------  -------  ------  -------  ------ --------  ------

Gold   $4,629.60  -$18.00   -0.4%  $255.70    5.8%$4,340.00 1498.6%

XAU       358.21   -16.00   -4.3%    15.93    4.7%   290.24  427.0%

Oil/Jn   $105.07   $11.91   12.8%   $48.06   84.3%   $79.47  310.4%

XOI      2623.14   -29.49   -1.1%   766.38   41.3%  2120.14  421.5%

CRB       395.11    22.69    6.1%    96.33   32.2%   189.97   92.6%

 

                                                                                                     

                                  Foreign Markets       

                                  ---------------

                                 

Exchng   Apr-30  Mnth Chg  Mnth % Year Chg  Year % 2K Chng*  2000 %

------ --------- --------  ------ --------  ------ --------  ------

TSX     33964.33  1196.29    3.7%  2251.57    7.1% 25550.58  303.7%

IPC     67947.21  -663.51   -1.0%  3638.92    5.7% 60817.33  853.0%

BVSP   187317.60  -144.20   -0.1% 26192.20   16.3%170225.60  995.9%

FTSE    10378.82   202.37    2.0%   447.44    4.5%  3448.62   49.8%

CAC-40   8114.84   297.90    3.8%   -34.66   -0.4%  2156.52   36.2%

DAX     24292.38  1612.34    7.1%  -198.03   -0.8% 17334.24  249.1%

Swiss   13136.27   359.48    2.8%  -131.21   -1.0%  5566.17   73.5%

Nikkei  59284.92  8221.19   16.1%  8945.44   17.8% 40350.58  213.1%

HngSng  25776.53   988.39    4.0%   145.99    0.6%  8814.43   52.0%

AllOrd   8887.60   203.70    2.3%  -131.20   -1.5%  5735.10  181.9%

 

* Change since 12/31/1999

                                                                                          

 

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