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* FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET
REPORT *
* August 22,
2025 *
* *
* e-mail:
fiendbear@fiendbear.com
*
* web address:
http://www.fiendbear.com
*
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Fiend Commentary
================
45,000:
Ceiling or Staging Area?
The Dow
keeps knocking on 45,000 and backing off—a tidy proxy for a market
that’s long on optimism but short on cushion. Market-implied odds for rate cuts
have cooled: what looked like a near-certain September move has slipped from
“automatic” to about 70%, and expectations for a second cut this year
are fading. In a tape priced for smooth disinflation, that narrows the runway.
What matters
next:
the upcoming inflation prints (PCE/CPI), jobs data (payrolls, wages),
and activity gauges (ISM, retail sales). “Cool but not cold” keeps the
soft-landing story alive; any re-accel in prices or wobble in growth pinches
multiples fast—especially with leadership still narrow and breadth reluctant.
Opinion, not
advice:
at 45,000 resistance with rate-cut odds ebbing, the market isn’t begging for
bad news—just something less than perfect. The next few reports won’t decide
the cycle, but they’ll likely decide whether 45k is a ceiling… or a launch
pad.
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