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*                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

*                                 June 27, 2025                             *

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*                       e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com                     *

*                    web address: http://www.fiendbear.com                  *

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Fiend Commentary

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Stocks Fly, Dollar Sinks — A Strange Divergence

The bulls are back in control as the major averages surged near all-time highs on Thursday. The VIX has returned to remarkably low levels, reflecting a market that’s all but fearless. Investors are betting on a string of Federal Reserve rate cuts in the second half of the year, even as economic data sends mixed signals.

Yet beneath this market euphoria lies a notable contradiction: the U.S. dollar continues to slide, hitting fresh multi-year lows. It’s an unusual dynamic—historically, such a sharp drop in the dollar would signal anxiety about the U.S. economy, currency debasement, or weakening capital flows. Instead, equities are treating it as a green light to buy.

So what’s driving this disconnect? Bulls see lower rates as inevitable, no matter what the data says. But the currency market is whispering a warning: either inflation could resurge if cuts come too soon, or foreign investors may be losing confidence in the dollar’s stability.

For now, the path of least resistance in stocks is up. But if the dollar keeps falling while equities climb, something will have to give. The market’s complacency may prove to be the most fragile part of this rally.

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