Fiend's SuperBear Market Report


            *                       FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT                     *

            *                              September 24, 2008                           *

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                                           Fiend Commentary                             



                                     A Few Quotes from Henry Paulson



May 31, 2006


"The risk I worry about the least right now is a dramatic drop in the dollar. And I

don't believe there is a general housing bubble. There might be anomalies in certain

regions but I don't see a real estate bubble across the U.S."


September 16, 2006


"U.S. economic growth is settling into ranges more in line with our long-term

potential. The residential housing market is cooling from record unsustainable growth

rates, but growth in the U.S. economy is being supported by other components. Higher

wages, strong company profits and business spending will offset a weaker housing



December 11, 2006


"We have had a correction in the housing industry and we are in the process of

transitioning to a more sustainable growth rate."


"We do not want Americans to become over-extended and see their dream end in



March 13, 2007


[The fallout in subprime mortgages is] going to be painful to some lenders, but it is

largely contained."


April 20, 2007


"All the signs I look at" show the housing market is at or near the bottom. The U.S.

economy is very healthy and "robust."


June 20, 2007


"We have had a major housing correction in this country. I do believe we are at or

near the bottom. It doesn't pose a risk to the economy overall."


"I tried to make clear we will be dealing with the subprime issue for some time and

that there will be losses along the way. It is a natural outgrowth of what we've seen

in the housing market and certain lending practices. As mortgages continue to reset,

this will take time to work its way through the system. But I continue to believe that

this risk is largely contained. It doesn't pose a significant risk to the economy



July 26, 2007


I don't think [the subprime meltdown] it poses any threat to the overall economy."

August 1, 2007


[...worries over problems in the subprime mortgage market spilling over into other sectors.]

"The market has focused on this. There's a wake-up call, and there's an adjustment to this

repricing of risk, but I see the underlying economy as being very healthy."


"As an economic matter, this is largely contained because we have a healthy and diverse



September 9, 2007


"I never thought of myself as a cheerleader. I believe our economy is healthy."


October 30, 2007


"I believe there is enough strength in our economy that we will continue to grow

through this though housing is the weakest part of the economy."


November 23, 2007


"I think we're working our way through this. But I also recognize that it's going to

take longer for these markets to operate the way they should be, and until they are,

there's a certain amount of fragility in the system."


December 17, 2007


"I don't think what we need is a big government bailout right now. I think what we

need is to help the markets work the way they're intended to work and avoid those

foreclosures that are preventable."


January 8, 2008


"...let me be clear: There is no single or simple solution that will undo the excesses

of the last few years."


March 4, 2008


"Most of the proposal [bailouts] I've seen would do more harm than good. Investors,

lenders or speculators should be accountable for the risks they took. Let me be clear:

I oppose any bailout. I believe our efforts are best focused on helping homeowners who

want to stay in their homes."


March 16, 2008


"I've got great confidence in our financial market, our financial institutions. Our

markets are resilient. They're flexible. Our institutions, our banks and investment

banks, are strong."


May 16, 2008


"We are still working through housing and capital markets issues, and expect to be

doing so for some time. We also expect to see a faster pace of economic growth before

the end of the year."


"We are seeing signs of progress as capital and credit markets stabilize. The markets

are considerably calmer now than they were in March."


"Some bumps in the road" are likely, especially in the housing sector, but we are

closer to the end of the market turmoil than the beginning."

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