SUMMARY - "Phoenix":
The Contrarian's View is published 11 times per year on a mostly-irregular schedule, and the views expressed are those of the author and editor, Nick Chase. Because nobody can predict the future, results of past suggestions or recommendations are no guarantee of future results. Material in this publication may be freely quoted provided proper attribution is given to its source. Subscription rate: Free on the Internet through the World-Wide Web service at Assumption College. Using your favorite Web-browsing program, Open URL http://nick.assumption.edu. Mailed paper subscriptions, one year for $39 to The Contrarian's View, 132 Moreland Street, Worcester, Massachusetts 01609. There is a limit of 50 paid subscribers at one time; please check for availability before sending any money. Sorry, Visa and Mastercard are not available. Overseas subscription rate, U.S. $54. Unsolicited material sent to us by UPS or by courier other than the postal service is refused and returned to sender! Phone: (508) 757-2881
To date, most of the Y2K failures have been isolated and subtle, and (for the most part) it has taken a technologically-aware person to recognize them as such, as my own two personal Y2K-failure incidents (the "unauthorized" credit card, and bogus Amtrak refund) demonstrate. This makes sense; people working on Y2K repairs in programs will obviously have fixed first the bugs due to crop up in 1997 to 1999, so what we have seen is the occasional bug that fell through the cracks.... or the early-warning signs of unremediated systems doomed to fail.
But in 1999, the failure rate will likely increase sharply, due to (1) past programming practices, (2) the year 2000 being less than 12 calendar months away, and (3) missed deadlines.
Firstly, by December 31, 1998, "everybody" is supposed to have finished all of their code corrections, leaving all of 1999 for testing. If you believe this deadline is going to be met, there is a certain bridge in Brooklyn that awaits your purchase. The Federal government, for which we have figures, is likely to have less than half of its "mission-critical" systems fixed (not tested, just code-repaired) by then.... leaving me to wonder, how important are - and is any work being done on - the "non-mission-critical" systems? Businesses are generally acknowledged to be well ahead of government, with banks, insurance companies and financial firms in the lead. So if organizations have really reached the testing-only stage in 1999, as the year progresses we should start seeing more warranties, such as the one recently issued by TIAA-CREF, forthcoming. If we don't see a deluge of warranties.... because legal eagles and accountants will be demanding them.... then you will know that deadlines are slipping.
In January 1999 old computer programs will also be tripping up on "1/99", used as a signal for special processing in databases, and on just "99" alone. These failures will likely occur through the month as data is opened up and processed. If these failures aren't numerous enough to pop up on the media's radar screen, then presume that most of this ancient code has already been found and fixed.
More serious is that in January 1999, many computers will create and open up "2000" for the first time.... or should I say, "00".... and will crash or give bad results. You may have already read in your local paper that (an unknown number of) state and county welfare and unemployment offices will be unable to process benefits because their programs use a one year window, but can't handle the year "00". Odds are, you will hear a lot more about these failures in January, when those offices write (or attempt to write) checks by hand. People may begin to wonder what will happen to, say, their Medicare benefits, when the millennium witching hour strikes.
April 1999 marks the beginning of the 2000 fiscal year for Canada, New York State, and some businesses. Failures relating to opening up fiscal year "00" may crop up as early as March 1999, since accounting systems typically have a month's look-ahead.
Each successive month will see more fiscal year "00" failures as businesses and governments enter their new fiscal years, with the most common boundary likely to be June 30/July 1 (meaning, we'll see the failures during June).
August 22, 1999 is when the ten-bit counters in the Global Positioning Satellites overflow, and any receiving equipment which does not compensate for this rollover will lose 1024 weeks and their clocks will think it's 1980. Most large navigation systems (planes, ships) have long since been upgraded; most likely affected will be weekend boaters and time systems such as those used to control access to safes or calculate global interest rates.
In September occurs the infamous "9/9/99" (or, more accurately, "090999"), which was almost universally used as an "end-of-file" or end-of-data indicator by COBOL programmers.... and even in spreadsheets up to a year or two ago. This is a large problem because it cannot always be solved by fixing the programs.... an identifiable point of failure.... but must be solved by fixing the data, which can be thousands or millions of records. 9/9/99 is not as likely to crash computers as it is to abort processing, meaning that your bill or refund will be delayed, or your account will get messed up.
October 1, 1999 is the beginning of the federal government's 2000 fiscal year. I would expect widespread failures..... or at least, problems..... in the government's financial and accounting systems at the September 30/October 1 boundary.
In December 1999, accounting systems running on a calendar year will be looking ahead to year "00"; no doubt a certain number will crash. But what's more significant about December 1999 is the number of people, mainly in the computer and information-processing industries, who are planning to withdraw all their assets from the stock market and from banks, and hold cash through the anticipated crisis. The $64 trillion question is, are there enough of these people to bring the financial system to its knees? After all, we do run on a fiat, fractional-reserve monetary system whose stability is based solely on confidence in the system. (Your government's version of a "confidence game".) It would take only a relative handful of people.... maybe only 3% of depositors or shareholders.... liquidating, with its intensely deflationary-to-credit consequences, to trigger a bank or stock-market panic.
To date, Y2K-type problems have been largely isolated, or kept from public view by the organizations in which they occurred. At some point in 1999, in my opinion, they will simply become too widespread to remain buried. I can't promise you that the increased publicity will accelerate the rate of fixes.... we may see the opposite, throwing more money and programmers at the Y2K projects slows them down (Brooks' Law). But, for sure, I feel we will see awareness of the problem accelerate exponentially, as more people are themselves affected in ways that hurt, or know of others who are.
>From an investment point of view, 1999 will be the year that the Federal Reserve no longer writes the script. Up until now, if the stock market has threatened to collapse, or the banking system has threatened to take on gas, why, just bail out the offending source with printed money, and presto! The bubble remains intact.
We've had two potential market crashes - October 1997 (triggered by the collapse of Asian economies) and October 1998 (triggered by the collapse of Russian debt and bailout of LTCM) averted by timely Fed action, so clearly the Federal Reserve has the clout to keep the confidence game going for awhile, at least in the investment arena. But no one expects nor, in my opinion, does the Fed have the ability to prop up confidence in the face of systems, organizations or countries fractured by errant computers. And the 1999 problems are far more likely to occur in foreign countries, which are (overall) much further behind the U.S. in Y2K repair efforts, and where the Federal Reserve has no force-of-law clout.
Even if the 1999 failures can be taken in stride, it is in 1999 that the full force of costs associated with fixing Y2K (both money already committed and the additional funds that will be thrown at the problem as awareness increases) will flow to the bottom line of corporate profit/loss statements. The drag on earnings will not be bullish for stocks.
One of the most frustrating problems I've encountered in writing about Y2K is trying to cut through all of the hype to determine the seriousness of the problem. So far, there is still an enormous discrepancy between "official" statements, issuing mostly from PR types, and what the programmers, anonymously or off-the-record, will tell you is the true state of affairs. I expect this discrepancy will shrink as 1999 progresses.
By November 1999 we should be able to get a pretty clear picture of
the severity of problems that will occur on and after January 1, 2000.
Problem is, if the pessimists are proved right and it appears we're headed
for TEOTWAWKI (the end of the world as we know it), by November 1999 it
will be too late to do anything about it.
While rare, bubbles are not trivial - [when they pop] they are the financial equivalent of a nuclear holocaust. - Bill Fleckenstein
Businesses fail, and banks bail them out. Banks fail, and big banks bail them out. Big banks fail, and governments bail them out. Governments fail, and the IMF/World Bank bails them out. The IMF/World Bank fails, and the G8 bails them out. One of the G8 fails, one of the G7 bails it out. This process has been ongoing for decades and it is near its end. When the G7 fails, and it will, the bailouts will end. The worst financial/economic disaster of this century will follow. - Colin Negrych
The Fed's move yesterday [November 17] confirms the severe condition of the global financial system, since these regulators of money probably have non-public information on bank, hedge fund, and currency exposures that suggest the situation is as precarious as, or worse than, earlier this summer. So much for transparency in markets and financial systems that we criticize the emerging economies for. It will be interesting to note in the months ahead whether this excess liquidity is still funneled into stocks, into the economy via business investment or working capital, or put under the mattress or even into tangible assets. Investor psychology, aka confidence, will be the key, not the cost of money; flooding the system with money, just ask the Japanese, does not mean it will end up in consumption or business investment. - David W. Young [Wexford Capital Management]
Has Russia been saved yet? Is the Southeast Asian economic crisis over? Is Japan's economy undergoing resurgence? Has the yen-dollar exchange rate stabilized? Is the credit crunch over? Is Long Term Capital Management the only hedge fund casualty? Has Bill Clinton given up use of a private Gestapo to destroy his critics? If your answers to the above questions are mostly Yes, then buy stock. Be my guest. If No, then get ready for the massacre. Let the ruination begin. - J. Orlin Grabbe
More than ever, we are spending money we don't have. And that is surely no way to nurse a shaky economy back to health, or to rescue failing exporters around the word. - Rick Ackerman
....funds have continued to leave Brazil at a rate of $1 billion per day. It is questionable that Brazil can weather such bloodletting with its shrinking foreign reserves, so it appears there is a strong likelihood that the Brazilian debt bubble will burst in the few remaining weeks and months of 1998. When that happens, the rest of Ibero-America will follow and shockwaves will be felt across the world. - Paul Lam
For the first time since the Great Depression, Japanese savers are now seeing negative interest rates. So fearful of a banking system collapse, investors are willing to pay a small fee to ensure the safe return of their capital. Such an absolute lack of tolerance for risk is devastating for an economy, but is the price of a financial bubble turned bust. - David Tice
[A]bout the incredibly bad financial system in Japan.... Their crisis is twelve times worse than our savings and loan crisis. None of their monetary policies can change what is happening. The principal reason is that the UNDERLYING problem is not addressed. And THAT is what will cause them to go under. They do not view bankruptcy the same as the West and therefore they do not allow companies to go under in the same way. Meaning that responsibility for bad debt is not assumed by those who have defaulted. Then the banks lend them more money hoping to pull them out. Then the banks are insolvent and the government tries to pull them out. By this time the problem is so huge that it is literally unaddressable. The only way to make banks solvent is for them to build reserves by ONLY lending to the most highly credit worthy large companies. They take the interest that they earn and put it into their reserves. It will take at least half a dozen years to build up. But their economy is in DIRE need of relatively easy credit or they slide off the edge. In other words, the needs of the precariously-situated banks are at odds with the needs of the economy. Even first-year economics students understand that this is the classic situation prior to a collapse, at the top of the easy credit-bubble. Just when credit is crucially needed it is cut off.... as they begin to go under they will be calling back all their money from the US, stock market and treasuries, collapsing the US as they go. - Paul Milne
I returned to Hong Kong from the US last June, to witness the historical handover of Hong Kong back to China and to start a new university job. The first thing my mother told me to do was to buy an apartment because in her own words "If prices keep on increasing, you will never be able to afford one." Being a physician, if I cannot afford one, how many other citizens will be able to? Prices have more or less quadrupled in the past 2 years as everyone went into a speculative frenzy. Even taxi drivers and little old ladies in the market were talking about the stock market and the real estate market. I calculated the yield on these apartments, which was about 2% at best (although the rent seemed astronomical compared to Southern California!) and with mortgage rate at about 10%, I concluded that it was crazy to buy at that point. The stock market was something else; anything to do with mainland China would appreciate no matter what. A penny stock called CNPC, which explores oil on the mainland, went from an IPO of 10 cents to $5 within a matter of months. Then, there were the "red chips," companies that do business in China. You could pretty much put China onto anything and it will turn into gold. My friends installed terminals in their clinics and stopped seeing patients. Many of them were boasting how much money they were making, certainly much more than most doctors. A friend of mine put all his savings into the stock market, and borrowed up to the limit of margin requirements. Even my wife bought a couple of Chinese "H-shares" based on tips from my mother-in-law! (Investment for my wife usually means T-bills). Then, on October 28th, everything came apart. First, the index fell from 16,600 to 12,000. It maintained that level long enough to lure back in the optimists. Then, it went down to 8000. Everybody started blaming the hedge funds and George Soros in particular. The government was the most vocal. Then, the index plunged to 6600. The government decided to intervene and bought up 15% of the Hang Seng index constituents. With the recent Fed rate cut, the Hang Seng is back to around 10000, but for how long? Europe and the US are visibly weakening (although most economists don't want to believe it). Japan is in even more of a mess, and social order in Indonesia is breaking down. Most importantly, China's exports are slowing, and its citizens are getting more and more unhappy of losing money in the markets. - Dr. Adrian Young Yuen Wu
If you took a penny at the time of Christ and compounded it at 3% you would have $445,425,381,800,000,000,000,000 or, said another way, 445 billion trillion dollars (I think)!! Is the fact that nobody has this much money a currency problem or does it mean that 3% LONG TERM is a high rate of return? - Edward Marsh
Societies do not usually lose their freedom at a blow. They give
it up bit by bit, letting themselves be tied down with an infinity of little
knots. As rules and regulations increase, their range of action is gradually
compressed. Their options slowly lessen. Without noticing the change, they
become wards of the state. They still imagine themselves free, but in a
thousand and one ways, their choices are limited and guided by the authorities.
And always, there are what seem to be sensible reasons for letting their
autonomy be peeled away -- "safety," "health," "social justice," "equal
opportunity." It is easy to grow accustomed to docility. That is why eternal
vigilance is the price of liberty. Not because liberty is easy to shatter.
But because it can be softened and dismantled with the acquiescence of
the very men and women from whom it is being stolen. Many Americans no
longer understand this, which is why the government now dictates everything
from the words that may appear on wine labels to the volume of water toilets
may flush. - Jeff Jacoby
The Clinton scandals are not about sex, but about the unprecedented criminal corruption of an administration. It is about a mobbed-up president whose close allies have included over two-score individuals and firms convicted of such crimes as drug trafficking, racketeering, extortion, bribery, tax evasion, kickbacks, embezzlement, fraud, conspiracy, fraudulent loans, illegal gifts, illegal campaign contributions, money laundering, perjury, and obstruction of justice. It is about members of the Dixie Mafia and other criminals including drug dealers having direct access to the White House. It is about a criminal, Webster Hubbell, being appointed to the number 3 spot at the Justice Department. It is about the President's lifelong association with the Dixie Mafia, including members active in the drug trade. It is about the abuse of 1,000 FBI files. It is about the false prosecution of a White House official whose only real crime was occupying a position wanted by a Friend of Bill. It is about illegal foreign campaign contributions and possibly related espionage. It is about the extraordinary number of people around Clinton who have died under mysterious circumstances. It is about the repeated abuse of women with whom Clinton has had relations, women who have often been multiple victims: first as abused sexual partners and then as terrorized, bribed, or publicly trashed former partners. It is about Bill Clinton saying "I don't recall" or its equivalent 140 times before the grand jury. It is about a president who has consistently used the power of his office to prevent law enforcement officials from carrying out their duties and, when that hasn't worked, has conducted a propaganda jihad against them and anyone else who dared to challenge him. It is about how Clinton has manifestly failed to faithfully execute the laws of the land and has become America's most corrupt president. And, finally, it is about a media that won't tell the public these truths. - Sam Smith
Bill Clinton is popular because he accurately represents America
in the late '90s. Which is to say, most Americans have divided life into
neat little boxes where personal integrity doesn't matter until it impacts
the economy. - Doug McIntosh
This is almost December 1998 when EVERY company and government agency is supposed to be finished with remediation, leaving all of 1999 for testing. Listen up people, it ain't getting done.... start building your lifeboat now. I don't know what the problems will be but the code will break in strange and wonderful ways. We might not have riots or a civil war but something unlike anything you or I have seen is about to happen. - Cory Hamasaki
Chevron expects that its Year 2000 assessment and corrections will include ongoing remedial efforts into the year 2000.... While the company believes that the impact of any individual Year 2000 failure will most likely be localized and limited to specific facilities or operations, the company is not yet able to assess the likelihood of significant business interruptions occurring in one or more of its operations around the world. Such interruptions could prevent the company from being able to manufacture and deliver refined products and chemicals products to customers. The company could also face interruptions in its ability to produce crude oil and natural gas.... However, the company does not expect unusual risks to public safety or to the environment to arise from potential Year 2000 related failures which may impact its operations. - from 10-Q [November 6, 1998]
I moved out [of the city] about 8 years ago. I could see the handwriting on the wall. It was not only inevitable but just a matter of time before the house of cards finally collapsed. Eight years ago, I thought it would be years in coming. I knew that they would find ways of attempting to put off the crash by throwing good money after bad, exacerbating the problem and making the resultant crash that much worse. It is all converging with the euro and Y2K. There is not the slightest doubt that the results will be utterly catastrophic. Everything as we know it will be wiped out. No ifs, ands or buts about it. Y2K is not happening in a vacuum. It is happening in the most frightening economic context imaginable. - Paul Milne
The modern world has bet its future on fractional-reserve banking.
That bet will hit 00 in 2000. The checks will not be in the mail: to or
from the government. As soon as the public knows for sure that the welfare
state is dead, a worldwide tax revolt will begin.... The U.S. government....
will enter 2000 blind, broke, and busted. All over the world, national
governments will go blind and broke in the same month. We have never seen
anything like this. People cannot comprehend this. - Gary North
Flip a coin, I said: This could continue to be just a bear-market rally, or we could see Dow 9800 - 10,300, the figures I projected last spring for the Dow's upper range; if the bubble returns with a vengeance, we could see Dow 12,000 - 13,000 at the peak. Since I wrote that "warmline" two weeks ago, little has changed; flip a coin, it could go either way.
What's this? You have a knife at my throat? You want me to make up my mind? Pick one? OK, if you really, really push me, I'd say that this is still a bear-market rally. The "average" stock has not done nearly as well as the popular averages, as you can see if you look at, say, the Dow Jones Transportation average, or the Russell 2000. The funds the Fed has suckered back into stocks seem to have gone into momentum-chasing of the popular averages, or into the Internet-stock craziness, leaving the select blue chips even more overpriced than in July, due to fading earnings or earnings estimates. (Most of the Internet stocks have no intrinsic worth in the first place.) Market technical "internals" are weak, more indicative of a blow-off than the resumption of a bull market.
But really, I'm not going to be dogmatic on the issue. I know that many readers mechanically follow "Timer's Trend", or use it as a guide for their own market timing, and since we're in the "safe" time of year for investing, I really can't complain if you should want to try to ride an inflating bubble when "Timer's Trend" says it's OK. You know my strategy: I don't do bubbles. Regardless, I think it would pay to close out your long positions in time for your trades to settle in 1998, and stay clear of the first few days of January 1999, because nobody knows how widespread any Y2K-related problems will be, or what computer systems they'll take down. If, after the first week of January the problems are minor, and "Timer's Trend" is still giving a green light, then you are probably safe riding the bubble until it finally appears about to deflate (.....if you enjoy taking on enormous risk, that is, and don't mind tossing and turning in your sleep at night).
I've had many readers comment that if the market went up again, they would bail out at the break-even point. Well, you've had your chance (and you may get more of them). Did you do it? Probably not.... it's human nature that you're willing to take on more risk when things are going your way than when you're holding onto losing positions. If you fit this profile, then you need to carefully assess your tolerance for risk. How did you feel last September and early October when your portfolio was off 20% or more? Did you really believe that stocks "always come back" or did you think, maybe, this time it was the "real thing" and a savage bear market lay ahead? What would you have done if stocks had risen only 5% to 11%, then started heading downward again?
For people unsure of what to do, let me make a suggestion: Figure out what you've put into the market since (say) 1994 (or whatever). Assume a reasonable long-term rate of return typical for stocks; 9%, 10%, 11%, whatever - and calculate what you would have in your portfolio if you had earned that return. Then add in whatever you would earn at that long-term rate for the next six months. This amount of money is likely to be less than the current value of your portfolio, typically half to two-thirds. Cash in enough of your portfolio to equal this amount, and put it into T-bills or money markets. Let the rest ride on the stock market (for as long as you can tolerate).
If stocks continue to return the 30%-plus per year the greenhorns think they will, then you will continue to exceed the long-term rate of return you've set for yourself through May 1999. But if I'm right, the Fed can't keep stocks propped up forever, and a meltdown still lies ahead in the not-too-distant future, then even if your portfolio went to zero you'd still match your desired long-term rate of return (and be considerably ahead of those fools who will crash and burn in the meltdown).
As for me, I staked my positions in safety (in my retirement funds)
and on the short side long ago. My stock and IRA portfolios are under water....
so why am I smiling? Because I know that the mania cannot possibly
extend beyond the first few days of 2000. It currently appears that enough
computer systems (primarily overseas) will fail, to shrink world trade
and bring on a depression (if not TEOTWAWKI). Seldom are short-sellers
(or bearish market bettors) offered a deadline by which their trades must
succeed, but thanks to shortsighted management decisions made years ago,
we have that opportunity today. So I am not terribly concerned if the bubble
should get even a little bit bigger; I have my eyes targeted on the eventual
outcome, which I know must occur in less than thirteen months.
A. "Phoenix" -real portfolio, begun on October 1, 1995.
SUMMARY - "Phoenix":
Original cost: $ 8,090.45 Present value: $ 6,747.26 Increase: $-1,343.19 [-16.60%]The performance of this portfolio and its predecessors ("Hedger's Delight", "Present and Future Income", "Crapshooter's Folly") from January 1987 to the present is -5.43%, for a compound annual rate of return of -0.45%.
COMMENT on "Phoenix": No change from the last issue. (Cash balance is not up to date.)
B. "Professors' Investment Group (PIG)" - investment club portfolio.
SUMMARY - "PIG":
Original cost: $ 8,575.00 Present value: $ 7,163.60 Increase: $-1,411.40 [-16.46%]COMMENT on "PIG": The PIGs expect to buy 50 shares of Genzyme (GENZ) at 22 or better. The PIGs' Web page is at http://www.assumption.edu/HTML/Faculty/Kantar/WPigs.html
C. Roth rollover IRA - real portfolio, includes commissions:
SUMMARY - IRA:
Original (1983-86) cost: $ 8,326.19 Present value: $12,378.80 Increase: $ 4,052.61 [+48.67%]The performance of this portfolio (including its predecessors) from January 1, 1987 to the present is +12.87%, for a compound annual rate of return of 1.02%.
COMMENT on IRA: There is no change from the last issue..
D. CREF Pension plan; I switch between indexed stock/bond/money funds:
Date Sold Bought 13Mar92 stock @ 56.65 MM @ 13.41 29Apr92 MM @ 13.48 bond @ 31.19 19Jun92 bond @ 32.14 MM @ 13.55 29Jun92 MM @ 13.57 stock @ 56.74 24Jul92 stock @ 56.76 MM @ 13.61 29Oct92 MM @ 13.72 stock @ 58.61 23Dec92 stock @ 61.48 MM @ 13.78 16Jan95 MM @ 14.83 equity-index @ 26.44 20Jan95 eq-index @ 26.19 MM @ 14.84 30Oct97 MM@ 17.24 bond@47.56 (27.17%) 30Oct97 MM@ 17.24 i-i bond@26.12 (27.17%) 11Feb98 bond@ 48.84 MM@17.52 (27.17%) 11Feb98 I-I bond@ 26.23 MM@17.52(27.17%) 16Jun98 MM@ 17.84 TIAA Traditional (45.87%) Values, 30Nov98: stock, 159.76; MM, 18.27; bond, 52.25; inflation-indexed bond, 27.18; TIAA current yield in SRA, 5.75%Gain, 1988: 18.91%; 1989: 14.48%; 1990: 8.28%; 1991: 27.93%; 1992: 10.20%; 1993: 3.08%; 1994: 4.07%; 1995: 4.80%; 1996: 5.28%; 1997: 5.38%
E. Current unfilled portfolio good-til-cancelled orders: None.
COMMENT on "Timer's Trend": We're still on a BUY signal from October 21, though recent market action indicates we may get a SELL within the next few days. This is a mania..... watch the "computer warmline".... treat all sell signals with the greatest respect.
______________________________ TIMER'S TREND_________________________________
Mon 18 May 98 # I . | 9050.91 |*+.~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 19 May 98 . I# . | 9054.65 + . *
Wed 20 May 98 . I# . | 9171.48 |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 21 May 98 . & . | 9132.37 |-. *
Fri 22 May 98 .# I . | 9114.44 |-. *
Tue 26 May 98 #. I * | 8963.73 |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 27 May 98 # . I . | 8936.73 |~.*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 28 May 98 . & . | 8970.20 | .- *
Fri 29 May 98 . & . | 8899.95 |*.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 1 Jun 98 .# I . | 8922.57 | .- *
Tue 2 Jun 98 . #I . | 8872.30 |~-*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 3 Jun 98 .# I . | 8803.80 |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 4 Jun 98 . & . | 8870.56 |-. *
Fri 5 Jun 98 . I # | 9037.71
Mon 8 Jun 98 . I #. | 9069.60 + . *
Tue 9 Jun 98 . & . | 9049.92 + . *
Wed 10 Jun 98 # I . | 8971.70 + . *
Thu 11 Jun 98 # . *I . | 8811.77 |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 12 Jun 98 #. I . | 8834.94 | .- *
Mon 15 Jun 98 #* . I . | 8627.93 |~.~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 16 Jun 98 .# I . | 8665.29 | . - *
Wed 17 Jun 98 . I #. | 8829.46 |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 18 Jun 98 # I . | 8813.01 | .- *
Fri 19 Jun 98 #. I . | 8712.87 *~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 22 Jun 98 . #I . | 8711.13 | - *
Tue 23 Jun 98 . I #. | 8828.46 |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 24 Jun 98 . I #. | 8923.87 |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 25 Jun 98 . #I . | 8935.58 |-. *
Fri 26 Jun 98 . #I . | 8944.54 + . *
Mon 29 Jun 98 . | #. | 8997.36 +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 30 Jun 98 . |# . | 8952.02 + . *
Wed 1 Jul 98 . | . # | 9048.67 |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 2 Jul 98 . | #. | 9025.26 |+. *
Mon 6 Jul 98 . | .# }| 9091.77 | + *
Tue 7 Jul 98 . |# . | 9085.04 | + *
Wed 8 Jul 98 . | # | 9174.97 |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 9 Jul 98 . #| . | 9089.78 |+. *
Fri 10 Jul 98 . # . [| 9105.74 |+. *
Mon 13 Jul 98 . # . | 9096.21 + . *
Tue 14 Jul 98 . | # ]| 9245.54 |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 15 Jul 98 . |# . [| 9234.47 + . *
Thu 16 Jul 98 . | # ]| 9328.19 |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 17 Jul 98 . | #. | 9337.97 |+. *
Mon 20 Jul 98 . |# . [| 9295.75 | + *
Tue 21 Jul 98 # I . {| 9190.19 |+.~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 22 Jul 98 # . I . | 9128.91 |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 23 Jul 98 * # . I . | 8932.98 |~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 24 Jul 98 # . I . | 8937.36 | . - *
Mon 27 Jul 98 # . I . | 9028.24 | . - *
Tue 28 Jul 98 # . I . | 8934.78 @| . - *
Wed 29 Jul 98 # . I . | 8914.96 @|~.~~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 30 Jul 98 . #I . | 9026.95 | . - *
Fri 31 Jul 98 # . I . | 8883.29 |~.*~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 3 Aug 98 # . I . | 8786.74 @|~.~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 4 Aug 98 # . I . | 8487.31 @|~.~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 5 Aug 98 # . I . | 8546.78 @| . - *
Thu 6 Aug 98 #. I . | 8577.68 @| . - *
Fri 7 Aug 98 .# I . | 8598.02 @| . - *
Mon 10 Aug 98 # . I . | 8574.85 @| . - *
Tue 11 Aug 98 # . I . | 8462.85 |~.~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 12 Aug 98 . & . | 8552.96 | . - *
Thu 13 Aug 98 # . I . | 8459.50 | . - *
Fri 14 Aug 98 # . I . | 8425.00 |*.~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 17 Aug 98 .# I . | 8574.85 |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 18 Aug 98 . & . | 8714.65 |~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 19 Aug 98 # . I . | 8693.28 | . - *
Thu 20 Aug 98 # . I . | 8611.41 |~*~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 21 Aug 98 # . I . | 8533.65 |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 24 Aug 98 # I . | 8566.61 | . - *
Tue 25 Aug 98 #. I . | 8602.65 | . - *
Wed 26 Aug 98 # . I . | 8523.35 @| . -*
Thu 27 Aug 98 # . I . | 8165.99 @|~.~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 28 Aug 98 # . I . * | 8051.68 @|~.~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 31 Aug 98 # . I . | 7539.07 @|~.~~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 1 Sep 98 .# I . | 7827.43 @|~.~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 2 Sep 98 #. I . | 7782.37 @| . - *
Thu 3 Sep 98 # . I . | 7682.22 @|~.~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 4 Sep 98 # . I . | 7640.25 @*~.~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 8 Sep 98 . I# . | 8020.78 |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 9 Sep 98 # . I . | 7865.02 |~.~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 10 Sep 98 # . I . | 7615.54 @|~.~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 11 Sep 98 . #I . | 7795.50 |~.~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 14 Sep 98 . #I . | 7945.35 |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 15 Sep 98 # I . | 8024.39 |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 16 Sep 98 .# I . | 8089.78 |~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 17 Sep 98 # . I *. | 7873.77 |~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 18 Sep 98 # I . | 7895.66 | . - *
Mon 21 Sep 98 #. I . | 7933.25 | . - *
Tue 22 Sep 98 .# I . | 7897.20 | . - *
Wed 23 Sep 98 . | .# | 8154.41 |~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 24 Sep 98 # . I . | 8001.99 |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 25 Sep 98 #. I . | 8028.77 | .- *
Mon 28 Sep 98 .# | . | 8108.84 | - *
Tue 29 Sep 98 # | . | 8080.52 | - *
Wed 30 Sep 98 # . *I . | 7842.62 |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 1 Oct 98* # . I . | 7632.53 |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 2 Oct 98 . #I . | 7784.69 |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 5 Oct 98 # . I . | 7726.24 | . - *
Tue 6 Oct 98 #. I . | 7683.51 |~.*~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 7 Oct 98 # . I . | 7741.69 | . - *
Thu 8 Oct 98 # . I . | 7731.91 | . - *
Fri 9 Oct 98 .# I . | 7899.52 |~.~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 12 Oct 98 .# I . | 8001.47 |~.~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 13 Oct 98 # . I . | 7938.14 | . - *
Wed 14 Oct 98 # I . | 7968.78 | . - *
Thu 15 Oct 98 . |# . | 8299.36 |~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 16 Oct 98 . | #. | 8416.76 |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 19 Oct 98 . | #. | 8466.45 |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 20 Oct 98 . | # | 8505.85 |+. *
Wed 21 Oct 98 . #| . }| 8519.23 |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 22 Oct 98 . |# . | 8533.14 |+. *
Fri 23 Oct 98 .# | . | 8452.29 + . *
Mon 26 Oct 98 . |# . | 8432.21 +~.~~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 27 Oct 98 . # . | 8366.04 |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 28 Oct 98 . |# . | 8371.97 + . *
Thu 29 Oct 98 . | # | 8495.03 +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 30 Oct 98 . | # | 8592.10 |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 2 Nov 98 . | . # | 8706.15 |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 3 Nov 98 . | # | 8706.15 | .+ *
Wed 4 Nov 98 . | . # | 8783.14 |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 5 Nov 98 . | .# | 8915.47 |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 6 Nov 98 . | # | 8975.46 |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 9 Nov 98 . # . | 8897.96 | .+ *
Tue 10 Nov 98 . # . | 8863.98 *~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 11 Nov 98 . |# . | 8823.82 |*.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 12 Nov 98 . |# . | 8829.74 |+. *
Fri 13 Nov 98 . | # | 8919.59 |+. *
Mon 16 Nov 98 . | # | 9011.25 |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 17 Nov 98 . | #. | 8986.28 | + *
Wed 18 Nov 98 . | #. | 9041.11 | + *
Thu 19 Nov 98 . | # | 9056.05 | + *
Fri 20 Nov 98 . | . # | 9159.55 |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 23 Nov 98 . | . # | 9374.27 |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 24 Nov 98 . | #. | 9301.15 | .+ *
Wed 25 Nov 98 . | # | 9314.28 | .+ *
Fri 27 Nov 98 . | .# | 9333.08 | .+ *
Mon 30 Nov 98 * . # . | 9116.55 |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
========================================================================
"Timer's Trend" is based on 4% and 10% exponential moving
averages of the New York Stock Exchange advance/decline line (that is,
the ratio of advancing to declining stocks). There are many symbols shown
above, but the ones that count are the braces: {, } = "Timer's Trend" (4%
exponential confirmed by 10% exponential) SELL ({) or BUY(}) signal.
NEXT ISSUE - will appear about December 30. /Nick Chase