UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE
For People Who
Think July,16, 2008
SPECIAL
MARKET UPDATE
After being super BEARISH for longer than I care
to remember; I got a BUY SIGNAL warning in the VIX Tuesday. Stocks may have
bottomed Tuesday, intraday. If not, they could by Wednesday to Friday We got a 2 percent plus decline intraday
Tuesday, which has the potential to satisfy capitulation requirements. However
my EW labeling does allow for one more decline Should that occur over the next
few days then there could be another 2 to 4 percent decline."
Tuesday also saw the second highest volume ever, 7.2 billion shares on the NYSE, further evidence of selling capitulation.
But its was not just the VIX and Volume that’s
flashing BUY Warnings. The NYSE New Lows were the
highest ever Tuesday. That too would suggest a selling capitulation. There
were 1,333 New Lows Tuesday.
REMEMBER: NOTHING GOES IN A STRAIGHT LINE
SENTIMENT:
Sentiment readings have been oversold for more
than 6 weeks but they have not flashed an all out major buy signal but they are
warning of a tradable rally
.
NOTE; Although I expect a decent Rally Lasting
anywhere between 2 to 6 weeks
This is NOT I repeat NOT
The Beginning or resumption of the BULL MARKET it will be only a correction in
an ongoing BEAR MARKET
. Yesterday Isaw the worst reading in the McClellan Oscillator Summation Index since September 1998, when it sat at negative -3,525. A month later, the Industrials were up 5 percent, two months later, they were up 16 percent, and a year and four months later, they were up 54 percent. So again, we seem to be seeing levels that suggest a bottomworth trading
The Industrials ended down 92.65 points, closing at 10,962.54 Tuesday, a new closing low for the decline from October 2007, after hitting an intraday low of 10,827.71. NYSE volume was huge at 133 percent of its 10 day average, with downside volume leading at 71 percent, , with Plunge Protection Team intervention supporting markets from an all-out collapse. The S&P 500 hit a new low intraday of 1,200.44, stopping at round number support. The NDX hit a new low intraday of 1,761.08.
GOLD
The HUI Amex Gold
Bugs Index fell 13.52 points, closing at 455.81 Tuesday. August
Gold closed flat at 972.6, and is sneaking up on it all-time
high. Silver fell to 18.96,
Although I expect a minor pullback DO NOT SELL either your GOLD OR SILVER.
This will be a Golden Opportunity to either add to your positions of for you
newcomers to begin BUYING.
GOOD LUCK, GOD BLESS and happy hunting
If you are enjoying your
subscription, please remember to tell your friends.
Aubie Baltin
CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD.
aubiebat@yahoo.com
561-840-9767
Please
Note: This article is for
education purposes only and is designed to help you make up your own mind, not
for me to make it up for you. Only you know your own personal circumstances so
only you can decide the best places to invest your money and the degree of risk
that you are prepared to take. The Information on data included here has been
gleaned from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by me.
Nothing stated in here should be taken as recommendation for you to buy or sell
securities.