UK and France Elections Upset Status Quo; Will Biden Drop Out?


By Victor Sperandeo with the Curmudgeon

Landslide Win in UK Elections:

The snap election in the UK on July 4th, called by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, has backfired into a total wipe-out of his Conservative party (founded in 1834 from the Tory Party). Official election results Friday showed a landslide victory for the UK’s center-left Labour party — its first victory in 19 years, since under the leadership of Tony Blair.

New UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer hailed his win as historic, saying early Friday: “Change begins now.” Later Friday, he gave his first speech outside the prime minister's residence at 10 Downing Street, saying, he will lead a “government of service” on a “mission of national renewal” and promised to "rebuild Britain."

The Conservative party was absolutely devastated and most likely will never return to any kind of power in the future, according to Victor. His strong, but humble opinion: When you lose the trust of the people, it’s over!  The Conservative party won’t be trusted for the next two generations.  In his analysis, they are now history.

This is similar to the U.S. Republicans in Name Only (RINOs), who are also disappearing one by one. They make people believe they represent them to get their votes but are really like the brothers of Brutus. The RINOs are a sham as they are bought by special interests, like the Dept. of Defense, to vote for wars in exchange for political contributions.

Expect Gridlock after French Elections:

France’s Renaissance Party (now in power) fared very badly in the first of two voting rounds in France’s snap elections, called by President Emmanuel Macron.  Many of Macron’s centrist political allies are furious at his decision to call the surprise elections just three weeks after the far-right National Rally trounced his party in European Parliament elections on June 6-9, 2024. They fear the centrist coalition will be wiped out in favor of the far right and left.

Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party and its allies won 33% of first-round votes while the New Popular Front, a coalition of leftist parties, garnered 28% of ballots. President Macron’s pro-business Renaissance party and its allies finished third with 21% of the vote.

The second voting round is being held today (July 7th).  French citizens are voting in an election that could result in the country’s first far-right government since World War II — or end in political deadlock just ahead of the Summer Olympics in Paris and the south of France.

The populist, far-right National Rally party was hoping to expand its lead in this second-round vote, claim a majority in the National Assembly and insert 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella as prime minister. While heavily favored, the National Rally party failed to get the most votes.  It’s a shocking result for a party that seemed poised to take power in France with its anti-immigration agenda.

In a truly surprising performance, the leftist New Popular Front emerged as a front-runner in five projections, though the final results could still change the picture. Five of France’s main polling institutes projected that the left-wing bloc would win the largest number of seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament where most legislative power resides. However, no coalition or party captured an absolute majority (289 seats) in Parliament, according to projections.

Months of gridlock in France’s government surely lie ahead at a time when many in France are angry over issues like inflation and immigration.  President Emmanuel Macron will be facing a deeply divided Parliament, including two blocs firmly opposed to him.  All three blocks have conflicting agendas and animosity towards one another. That’s a highly combustible mix!

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Graffiti covers part of the Monument a la Republique in Paris, France. The National Rally party had a strong showing in the second round of France’s legislative election but failed to win the most votes.

Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images.


“Without an absolute majority, the government will be at the mercy of opposition parties banding together” to topple it, said Dominique Rousseau, an emeritus professor of public law at the Panthéon-Sorbonne University in Paris.

According to Victor, Macron did not win because he is a sponsored globalist who puts forth laws for the globalist elites that are against French citizens. French voters are tired of being ignored! 

Elections are a Cause for Concern for the Global Elites:

These election results are the important focus points in the global power circles.  They are much more important than interest rates!

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European election results are causing havoc in western liberal democracies where the “elites” rule without concern for the people.  That has been the case in the U.S. for quite some time!

We previously published the History of How the U.S. Became Ruled by Elites, where we opined that the U.S. Constitutional Republic is now a total failure, as the representatives are bought and paid for or bribed  by the elites to do their bidding. The key desires of the elites are open borders for cheap labor without benefits and no tariffs of goods. 

Will Joe Biden Drop Out of the Presidential Race?         

U.S. President Joe Biden, whose debate destruction is still in the news, insists he still wants to run for President!  He has no chance of winning and will be forced to drop out. 

This man, who Victor feels sorry for, is being compared to the propped up dead Bernie in the 1989 movie “Weekend at Bernie’s.” A high-ranking Democratic National Committee official told Axios: "The only thing that can really allay concerns is for the president to demonstrate that he's capable of running his campaign.  Everything else feels like 'Weekend at Bernie's' by his inner circle to prop him up."

More relevant is one of the funniest classic comedies - the great Monty Python short story TV segment titled “Dead Parrot Sketch.” The sketch portrays a conflict between a disgruntled customer and a shopkeeper, who argue whether or not a recently purchased parrot is dead. Far less dark than “Weekend at Bernie’s,” it is an analogy that Joe Biden is figuratively dead in politics. 

Some Biden aides believe those closest to the President have created a cocoon around him that initially seemed earnestly protective, but now appears potentially deceptive in the debate's aftermath.

Global Economies are Slowing:

The world’s western economies are slowing deeply and getting worse every day. In April, the UN Trade and Development forecast global economic growth to slow to 2.6% in 2024, just above the 2.5% threshold commonly associated with a recession. This marks the third consecutive year of growth below the pre-pandemic rate, which averaged 3.2% between 2015 and 2019.

In the U.S., the Institute for Supply Management’s service-sector gauge, abruptly reversed into negative territory and the BLS monthly jobs report showed unemployment rising to 4.1%.  That has raised the risk of a sharper weakening of U.S. economic activity which could prompt the Fed to cut rates more than expected.

Market Comments:

The major US equity markets (S&P 500, Nasdaq and NDX 100, and DJI) were not concerned with Joe Biden’s terrible debate performance. Since that could cause a major disruption in the Democratic election process, it surprised Victor that major market indexes were up for the week with the S&P, Nasdaq and NDX 100 closing at all-time highs on Friday!  Six of the Magnificent Seven stocks (X-Nvidia) also made new highs for the year.

Also, the U.S. equity markets were not worried about narrow market breadth with fewer than 20% of stocks (i.e. mega cap technology) outperformed the S&P 500 during the first half of 2024. That was a record low in history, according to BofA.

Victor is now long 5-year T- Note futures and Gold, flat Stocks, but as they acted so well last week, he may buy them back for a trade?  

Victor’s Conclusions:

The “deep state” (AKA “The Establishment”) wants to keep the status quo. This is because they control virtually every major institution except the Supreme Court.

Elections are being held around the world and changes are taking place where the voting is less rigged. The powers in place are doing everything to remain in control using any means at their disposal.

End Quote:     

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”  Upton Sinclair

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Upton Sinclair was an American writer, muckraker, political activist and the 1934 Democratic Party.  He wrote nearly 100 books and other works in several genres. Sinclair's work was well known and popular in the first half of the 20th century, and he won the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction in 1943.

Stay calm, be well, success and good luck……………………………………...

The Curmudgeon

Follow the Curmudgeon on Twitter @ajwdct247

Curmudgeon is a retired investment professional.  He has been involved in financial markets since 1968 (yes, he cut his teeth on the 1968-1974 bear market), became an SEC Registered Investment Advisor in 1995, and received the Chartered Financial Analyst designation from AIMR (now CFA Institute) in 1996.  He managed hedged equity and alternative (non-correlated) investment accounts for clients from 1992-2005.

Victor Sperandeo is a historian, economist and financial innovator who has re-invented himself and the companies he's owned (since 1971) to profit in the ever changing and arcane world of markets, economies, and government policies.  Victor started his Wall Street career in 1966 and began trading for a living in 1968. As President and CEO of Alpha Financial Technologies LLC, Sperandeo oversees the firm's research and development platform, which is used to create innovative solutions for different futures markets, risk parameters and other factors.

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