Potpourri of Observations on Economy, Markets and Politics

by Victor Sperandeo with the Curmudgeon and Fiendbear



I have several short points of order about the economy, U.S. dollar, politics, and general “facts of truth” for the survival of nations.  They are expressed in this two-part blog post along with my opinions.  Readers are invited to read either or both parts, depending on their interests.

Thanks to Fiendbear and the Curmudgeon for their edits, reformatting, and added information/references/hyperlinks, etc.

Part I.   U.S. Economy and the Dollar

Weak Payroll Gains Even Weaker When Examined Closely:

BLS use of the BDM artificially inflates headline month-to-month payroll gains with add factors that currently are well in excess of 200,000 jobs per month.Due to extraordinary seasonal-factor shifts with today's (May 6th) headline Payroll Survey reporting, the market-disappointing April payroll gain was 160,000 jobs, instead of what should have been an even-weaker 100,000 to 120,000 jobs. On the Household-Survey side and with related unemployment measurement, data-quality was horrendous, as usual.”

Dollar Plunge Saved by Old-fashioned Jawboning:

Error in US. Government Debt Calculation:

“It is better not to incur debt. Once it is incurred, it is better to pay it off.  America, we have a problem.

“The public debt will fall due someday. (Some of it falls due just about every day.) It will have to be repaid or refinanced. If repaid, where would the money come from? It would come from you, naturally. The debt is ultimately a deferred tax. You can calculate your pro rata obligation on your smartphone. Just visit the Treasury website, which posts the debt to the penny, then the Census Bureau’s website, which reports the up-to-the-minute size of the population. Divide the latter by the former and you have the scary truth: $42,998.12 for every man, woman and child, as I write this.”

“By law, income to the Social Security trust funds must be invested, on a daily basis, in securities guaranteed as to both principal and interest by the Federal government. All securities held by the trust funds are -"special issues" -of the United States Treasury.  Such securities are available only to the trust funds."

Reference: “Social Security Trust Fund Cash Flows and Reserves


Part II.   Politics, Survival of Nations, and the New World Order

Trump is the Presumptive Republican Party Nominee for President:                                    

President Obama Attempts to Rewrite History:

“If we can’t puncture some of the mythology around austerity, politics or TAX CUTS or the mythology that’s been built up around the Reagan revolution, where somehow people genuinely think that he slashed government and slashed the deficit and that the recovery was because of all these massive tax cuts, as opposed to a shift in interest-rate policy - if we can’t describe that effectively, then we’re doomed to keep on making more and more mistakes.”

Obama: Forget The Difference Between Capitalism and Communism, "Just Decide What Works"

Characteristics of Successful Nations Vs the New World Order:

No country in history ever prospered by creating debt, borrowing, spending and committing tyranny over its people (e.g. Cuba).  On the contrary, all nations that are successful are free, have small debts, and whose people save, and invest (e.g. Switzerland).  Such countries have small limited government, with low taxes, and few regulations.  They are not controlled such that they are the only successful nations over the long run.

This should not be a "big debate"!!!  It is empirically a straight forward fact. So why does Obama (and others) attempt to say “BAD IS GOOD?” 

It must be due to "The New World Order."  As H.G. Wells wrote in his 1940 book with the same title:

"It is the system of Nationalist individualism that has to go... In the great struggle to evoke a Westernized World Socialism, contemporary governments may vanish... Countless people will hate the new world order...and will die protesting against it." (Put me in that group).

Closing Quote:

As Ludwig Von Mises wrote in Planning for Freedom (1952): 

"Tyranny is the political corollary of socialism, as representative government is the political corollary of the market economy."
Good luck and till next time...

The Curmudgeon


Follow the Curmudgeon on Twitter @ajwdct247

Curmudgeon is a retired investment professional.  He has been involved in financial markets since 1968 (yes, he cut his teeth on the 1968-1974 bear market), became an SEC Registered Investment Advisor in 1995, and received the Chartered Financial Analyst designation from AIMR (now CFA Institute) in 1996.  He managed hedged equity and alternative (non-correlated) investment accounts for clients from 1992-2005.

Victor Sperandeo is a historian, economist and financial innovator who has re-invented himself and the companies he's owned (since 1971) to profit in the ever changing and arcane world of markets, economies and government policies.  Victor started his Wall Street career in 1966 and began trading for a living in 1968. As President and CEO of Alpha Financial Technologies LLC, Sperandeo oversees the firm's research and development platform, which is used to create innovative solutions for different futures markets, risk parameters and other factors.

Copyright © 2015 by the Curmudgeon and Marc Sexton. All rights reserved.

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